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Coronavirus

 
 
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Thu 25 Mar, 2021 05:17 pm
@roger,
Its a real cluter **** here in Pa. Weve got health departments scheduling shot appointments while people, set with their appointments, will go off and get a shot at a CVS or some super vaccination center where its first come first serve.

We got ours because the Moderna vial that had several appointments already listed , and the recipients of which had bailed because they got a shot elsewhre. SOOO the shot had to be given so we were moved up by dumb luck .
They say theyve got a system worked out now. ALL shots now have to go through the states vax list.
0 Replies
 
glitterbag
 
  2  
Reply Mon 29 Mar, 2021 11:02 pm
@roger,
roger wrote:

No, it just means his prayers were insincere - like everybody else that died of the same thing.


You may be onto something.
0 Replies
 
glitterbag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Mar, 2021 11:08 pm
I heard from a lot of friends that they have felt a huge weight lifted off their shoulders when they got the vaccination(s). This has been a difficult time for all of us, most of us haven't been able to see our families or do something routine like go to a restaurant or a movie. It's not really over yet, but it's a good feeling to see light at the end of the tunnel.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Mar, 2021 05:41 am
@glitterbag,
Assuming that we can gt hrd immunity going before weve got mutations that are vaccine immune!
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Mar, 2021 08:32 am
@farmerman,
Weve got an actual race between vaccination "herd immunity" and infections based on new variants.

Were in a new wave in the US which will really stoked up with the Easter Holiday.

I pity anyone who lives in Fla, Mich , Cal and Texas. Those states lead the potentials for the new wave.
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Mar, 2021 08:38 am
@farmerman,
We’re not vaccinated until everyone is vaccinated.

We need Global herd immunity, if certain areas are left unvaccinated variants that are vaccine resistant can develop.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Mar, 2021 08:46 am
@izzythepush,
I dont think that going to happen. I think, frome evidence from Eastern Europe, US, and UK, enough stupid bastards that are anti vaxers are gonna make the concept of herd immunity develop regionally.

I wish that your wish was achievable. Only China has demnded universal vax.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Mar, 2021 04:18 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

I qualify for a 60 - 64 pilot project so hope to get first jab tomorrow or Monday.


The az clusterfuck has delayed my appt .... again. Still waiting and hoping.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 09:10 am
@ehBeth,
With physical exertion comes pain in the head, muscles and lungs: German canoe racer Steffi Kriegerstein (28 years old) reports severe after-effects of a Covid 19 infection (in December last year). The Olympics are no longer an option.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 11:13 am

In the pandemic year 2020, significantly more Americans died than before. Compared to the previous year, the mortality rate rose by 15.9 percent to 3.4 million people, CDC announced on today.
According to the agency, this roughly corresponds to the number of 378,000 people whose deaths were due to Covid-19. The disease thus rose to become the third most common cause of death after heart disease and cancer, with a share of 11.3 percent. The mortality rate was particularly high among men over the age of 85.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm?s_cid=mm7014e1_w][b]Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2020[/b]

United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State

farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 04:03 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
when we reach 635000, we will have equalled the number of deaths suffered in the US during the "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918 -22.


Ragman
 
  2  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 04:50 pm
@farmerman,
For the sake of relative comparisons now, the percentage of the US population in or around WW I (103 M) was 0.5 % fatalities. With a current population of
332.3 M. If there were a similar fatality rate, the resultant death toll would approximate 1.66M by the end of the pandemic (however that is determined).
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 05:39 pm
@Ragman,
...which is a different comparative statistic than yours, FM.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 07:19 pm
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:
I pity anyone who lives in Fla, Mich , Cal and Texas. Those states lead the potentials for the new wave.

I'm staying in my bunker until herd immunity is achieved.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 31 Mar, 2021 07:20 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:
The az clusterfuck has delayed my appt .... again. Still waiting and hoping.

Good luck.

Hopefully the rate of vaccine production will continue to increase.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Thu 1 Apr, 2021 02:31 am
A City in Brazil’s Amazon Rain Forest Is a Stark Warning about COVID to the Rest of the World

Manaus and cities like it will continue to generate dangerous viral variants if vaccination campaigns are not expanded to broadly reach all nations, rich or poor

Quote:
Manaus, a Brazilian city of more than two million that lies hundreds of miles from the Atlantic coast in the midst of the Amazon rain forest, has stood out as one of the world’s leading COVID hotspots. Tragically, it continues to provide the wrong lessons about what should be done to ease the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease.

The city and Brazil as a whole have become an exemplar of what happens when a country pursues a strategy of denying the pandemic and embracing herd immunity by letting the virus spread unchecked. Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro has promoted the idea of letting the pathogen move throughout the population until most people have been infected. He described proposals for a lockdown in Manaus before a crushing second wave of infections hit as “absurd.” And he has downplayed the severity of the crisis, saying that the nation of 211 million has to recognize that death is an inevitability and so Brazilians should stop being “sissies.” The country is currently recording around a quarter of all weekly COVID-19 deaths despite being home to less than 3 percent of the world’s population.

The legacy of the nation’s approach to countering COVID has meant that the spiraling case numbers and deaths registered in Manaus and the rest of Brazil are now spreading through the world in the form of a new variant of the virus. Studies suggest this variant could spread more than twice as fast. “Manaus was the first city to have its health system collapse in the new wave,” says Brazilian physician and neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis. “But now there are many ‘Manaus’s all over Brazil’s five regions. Brazil badly needs help from the international community to handle this situation, or new variants from here will continue to spread worldwide!”

Manaus was devastated by a first wave of COVID cases beginning last March. Excess deaths—the 3,457 people in the city who died above the expected mortality figures between March 19 and June 24, 2020—represented 0.16 percent of Manaus’s relatively young population. And 7 percent of men older than 75 died at the peak of the spread.

Infections were so prevalent that researchers at the University of São Paulo and their colleagues concluded that Manaus was the first city in the world to reach herd immunity—the point at which enough people are immune to a virus that the spread of new infections is hindered. Their preliminary preprint study estimated that 66 percent of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (they later revised their figure to 76 percent as of October). The threshold for COVID herd immunity is unknown, but projections often cited range from 60 to 90 percent. Similarly high rates of infection have also been found in the Peruvian and Colombian Amazon.

After a peak of hospitalizations and deaths last April, numbers dropped to relatively low levels until November 2020, despite the reopening of schools and businesses. Some Brazilian researchers warned that the pandemic was not over. Infections could rise, and the absence of stricter public health measures would condemn the city to a resurgence. The response from public officials, they say, was always the same: herd immunity would protect them. This false sense of security precipitated the new wave of infections, says Jesem Orellana, a Manaus-based epidemiologist at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a leading Brazilian public health institute.

In December 2020 a second wave did hit. And by January the city’s health system, which serves communities across the Amazon, had collapsed. ICUs were full to bursting, and oxygen supplies became exhausted. Some patients were airlifted to other regions of Brazil. But many died of asphyxiation on makeshift beds in hospital corridors or their home, doctors say.

More severe than the first one, the new wave took Manaus by surprise. Wearing masks and practicing social distancing had been discarded in the belief the city had reached herd immunity. Caseloads surged out of control, and bleak milestones from last year were surpassed. In January alone more than 3,200 excess deaths were logged, Orellana says.

Questions arose as to whether herd immunity had ever been achieved, the number of people infected had been overcounted or immunity to the virus had waned. Another disturbing prospect was that mutations to the virus in the Amazonian city that had spawned what is called the Manaus variant, or more formally P.1, could have caused reinfections in people who had earlier bouts or could have sped the rate of transmission among the still uninfected.

“It’s quite hard to come up with any scenario that can be made to fit Manaus which is not hugely concerning,” says William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Heath.

Recent studies have corroborated the suspicions that P.1 drove Manaus’s second wave. The exact rate of infection prior to the recent upsurge has not been determined. But Hanage emphasizes that inducing immunity by leaving people to contract the virus unguarded is a mistake. “Following the tragedy of Manaus, I would hope we can put an end to discussion of controlling the pandemic through herd immunity acquired from natural infection,” he says.

Hanage hopes the dire scenes in the Amazon—hospital systems collapsing, grave diggers carving out trenches for mass graves shared by multiple bodies, and families desperately queuing for oxygen supplies—will send a clear message: “Herd immunity through infection, instead of a vaccine, only comes with an enormous amount of illness and death,” Hanage says.

“[People in Manaus] thought, ‘We passed through this big wave, so now it’s fine,’” says Paola Resende, a research scientist at the Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles at Fiocruz. “Of course, the people relaxed and started to live their life as normal. And of course, it happened again.”

Resistance to new measures persisted for months. Social distancing and mask wearing lagged. On December 26, 2020, when the state of Amazonas ordered businesses closed to slow rising infection numbers, protests by businesses and workers erupted, and the decision was quickly reversed.

The Manaus experience holds a cautionary message for the rest of the world, including the U.S., about maintaining basic public health strictures even as vaccination campaigns progress. And it underlines why only a global approach to immunizations will work.

(...)


scintificamerican
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Fri 2 Apr, 2021 02:44 pm
@hightor,
Heard a coveration among a few locals on PBS. The subject was "Why Im not getting the vaccine"
The arguments for not getting vaccinated were simplistic an poorly constructed and based primarily on conspiracy theories at several ascending levels of govt and medicine.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Fri 2 Apr, 2021 02:49 pm
@Ragman,
people make that same %age argument to assess the severity of wars too.

During the Spanish flue the numbers were realized by urban centers mostly so the stats should be modified to consider pop densities in any cluster.

Medicine has come a long way so the stats for cutting off the pandemic needed to be factored in

Lets not try to trivialize death tolls.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Apr, 2021 02:51 pm
@farmerman,
Ya know, I wouldn't worry about them and their conspiracies. There are still lots of people wanting the vaccine and have yet to get it. Take care of them first. Them others can go their own way. If they catch Covid, they can continue to go their own way - as long as they don't expose themselves to anyone else.
0 Replies
 
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Apr, 2021 03:49 pm
@farmerman,
I hope that my comments aren’t perceived as trivializing the death tolls. My intent is to comment about a time when we had virtually no medication at all vs a time when we did/do. Spanish flu attacked most of Europe and decimated it and did similar to North America back in a time when densities were clustered around the big cities.
0 Replies
 
 

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