32
   

Coronavirus

 
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2020 09:18 pm
@maxdancona,
You're your own expert. In the end we will continue to disagree. I'd rather let this drop than keep on disagreeing: I with your personal opinions, and you with everything I've presented to you from reputable sources and a host of experts.

I hope you're right. But this has come to impasse and represents a waste of both our efforts and time.
maxdancona
 
  -3  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2020 09:21 pm
Points from this thread

1. It is bad to underestimate the severity of this pandemic (comparing it to the flu is ridiculous).

2. It is equally bad to exaggerate the severity of this pandemic.

3. Scientific experts are being very careful to not make definite predictions about what will happen. There is a lot of uncertainty with this virus. The experts are being very responsible in communicating this. Anyone telling you that there will be definitely be a second wave, or that things will definitely get worse are not a responsible scientific expert.

4. The curves are flattening all over. It is surprising that the number of new cases and deaths are falling even in Sweden and other places that have not gone into strict lock down. This is not what many people were predicting.

5. The facts are the facts. There are facts to illustrate the severity and dangerousness of the pandemic. There are facts to illustrate that the epidemic curve seems to be flattening in most places.

6. It is distressing to me that again we are dividing into the same two ideological camps... each having its own set of facts and predictions, and each attacking the intelligence of the other. This is not productive in the attempt to find a reasonable policy to deal with this pandemic.


0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  -3  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2020 09:24 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
Quote:
You're your own expert.


Bullshit Bobsal.

I have made no predictions. I have made no claims other than referring to published data.

I am not an expert. Nor, am I pretending to be one.

All I am doing is pointing out that there is an ideological impulse, on both the right and the left, to go to the extremes. People on both sides are pushing ideas that are not being said with certainty by the scientific experts or supported by the data.
bobsal u1553115
 
  4  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2020 09:32 pm
@maxdancona,
Last word: I made no "forecasts", I relayed the opinions of experts. You are making forecasts for sunnier days in the near future off the top of your head with no authority to make any epidemiological forecasting.

And now I really am done. I haven't opened your closed mind and you haven't shown me anything to change mine.

If it'll make you fell better, you won.

0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 08:49 am
The Latest US Coronavirus Death Predictions Are Even Worse Than Expected Before
Source: Agence France-Presse


AFP
20 MAY 2020

Coronavirus-related deaths among Americans are projected to surpass 113,000 by mid-June, a modeling average released Tuesday showed, underlining the US status as the nation worst affected by the pandemic.

The United States has recorded more than 1.5 million confirmed COVID-19 infections and 91,600 fatalities as of Tuesday, but a projection compiled from nine models from separate institutions predicted roughly 22,000 more Americans would succumb to the disease over the next 25 days.

"The new forecast for cumulative US deaths by June 13 is about 113,000, with a 10 percent chance of seeing fewer than about 107,000 and a 10 percent chance of seeing more than 121,000," the COVID-19 Forecast Hub at the University of Massachusetts said on its website.

The specific ensemble forecast average is 113,364 deaths by that date.

The latest projections come as most US states take steps - some minor, some more substantial - to re-open their shuttered economies and communities while facing the challenge of instilling confidence among Americans that it is safe to begin returning to normal.

Read more: https://www.sciencealert.com/models-suggest-us-virus-deaths-could-top-113-000-by-mid-june
engineer
 
  5  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 08:57 am
@bobsal u1553115,
NPR had something on the different type of forecasts and how they vary. The composite forecast seems to be steadying out around 110k deaths by June. That's a bit scary since the 1.5 million reported cases represent 0.5% of the US population. Even if you assume the cases are underreported by 100%, that still means there is 99% of the population out there yet to contract Covid-19.
bobsal u1553115
 
  4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 09:32 am
@engineer,
None of the projections are good. Some of them are worst case scenarios, but then again a worst case is possible as long as we do nothing about it, and even possible if we do.

I've yet to see any sunny days scenario from the WH only denials and "sun will burn it out "miraculously" in April. Last April - 50,000 dead ago.

I'd like to believe them if they could only explain how and why. Thumbs up and crossed fingers with poop eating grins ain't cutting it.

Its not as if I want Trump to fail. I don't want Covid19, I don't want my 90yr dad or 90 yr Trump loving MiL to get it (she is wearing a mask and self quaranting) or my 85yr ol stepmom to get it. Or my children or my grand kids.

Ignoring it hasn't worked yet and until Trump comes clean and admits that yes, there is a problem and here is my plan and my experts - we can hope for the best and but we'd better plan for the worst.
maxdancona
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 10:07 am
@bobsal u1553115,
Mel Brooks wrote:
Hope for the best, expect the worst
Some drink champagne, some die of thirst
No way of knowing 
which way it's going
Hope for the best, expect the worst!

Hope for the best, expect the worst
The world's a stage, we're unrehearsed
Some reach the top, friends, while others drop, friends
Hope for the best, expect the worst!

I knew a man who saved a fortune that was splendid
Then he died the day he'd planned to go and spend it
Shouting "Live while you're alive! No one will survive!"
Life is sorrow—here today and gone tomorrow


Live while you're alive, no one will survive—there's no guarantee

You could be Tolstoy or Fannie Hurst
You take your chances; there are no answers
Hope for the best expect the worst!


farmerman
 
  4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 10:10 am
We seem to have passed those "this is less bad than the annual flu" severity, folks. Theyve gone quiet in recent weeks.
maxdancona
 
  -4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 10:14 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

Mel Brooks wrote:
Hope for the best, expect the worst
Some drink champagne, some die of thirst
No way of knowing 
which way it's going
Hope for the best, expect the worst!

Hope for the best, expect the worst
The world's a stage, we're unrehearsed
Some reach the top, friends, while others drop, friends
Hope for the best, expect the worst!

I knew a man who saved a fortune that was splendid
Then he died the day he'd planned to go and spend it
Shouting "Live while you're alive! No one will survive!"
Life is sorrow—here today and gone tomorrow


Live while you're alive, no one will survive—there's no guarantee

You could be Tolstoy or Fannie Hurst
You take your chances; there are no answers
Hope for the best expect the worst!






You monsters! How can you thumb down Mel Brooks?
farmerman
 
  6  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 10:28 am
@maxdancona,
Korean biological Institute has published research about the "occurrence of re-infection" by Covid-19. It appears that the reinfection was actually a" false positive" that was reading the occurrence of Dead Virus RNA and has detected the full supply of lymphocytic antibodies that rendered those who've recovered , being completely immune to further infection and unable to infect others.

So the reinfection reports from china, korea and Europe have really been artifacts of the ultra sensitive means of the antibody tests. The tests were actually picking up the RNA from "dead virus"
That means that full immunity by those recovered appars to be conferred

Further evidence has shown that no cellular DNA of the hosts has occurred in those recovered, so that no possibilities of the occurrence of chronic infections appears likely. (think about post infection syndromes or liver damage in things like Hepatitis B or HIV)

This appears to be excellent news , folks were getting worried about re infection possibilities..

the above pulled from John Campbell MD his blog.

maxdancona
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 10:34 am
@farmerman,
I talked to my microbiologist friends, they all said that re-infection is very unlikely and that they were highly skeptical of this study. This is based on their knowledge of how coronaviruses work.

Dr. Fauci said the same thing publicly.
roger
 
  3  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 11:36 am
@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

So the reinfection reports from china, korea and Europe have really been artifacts of the ultra sensitive means of the antibody tests. The tests were actually picking up the RNA from "dead virus"
That means that full immunity by those recovered appars to be conferred


Some good news at last.
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 11:45 am
@farmerman,
Gone quiet or evolved. Now they are actively burying the numbers in some sort of Potemkin village front of "see! The numbers are going down!"

Now we know what he was babbling about when he was talking about when he said "if there's no test - theres no Covid19. It if you test for it, you find it."

BTW: where are those tests he promised? Where are the PPEs? He said "by next month", in January.
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 11:46 am
@roger,
That is good news.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 11:48 am
@maxdancona,
skeptical of "this study"??. This study says that it and your friends actually agree.

The PCR tests re highly sensitive and re picking up "dead" virus RNA. It reads on a PCR all the same since the PCR reads RNA or DNA snippets (virus are made of RNA not DNA).

This research was just reported yesterday and had to be translated by Dr Campbell .
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 11:50 am
@bobsal u1553115,
together we may say that "Hes the biggest liar since Sam Clemens"
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 12:29 pm
@farmerman,
At least Sam's fibs made us laugh and they aren't killing anyone in over 100 years. Look how many Trump got in just four months! We laughed with Sam, we laugh at Donnie.
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 01:15 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

I talked to my microbiologist friends, they all said that re-infection is very unlikely and that they were highly skeptical of this study. This is based on their knowledge of how coronaviruses work.

Dr. Fauci said the same thing publicly.

Farmerman said he researched the Spanish Flu pandemic and it kept mutating so that people who were immune to previous strains could still get re-infected with new strains.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  4  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2020 01:35 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
I talked to my microbiologist friends, they all said that re-infection is very unlikely ... This is based on their knowledge of how coronaviruses work.
One brush with the viruses that cause chickenpox or polio, for instance, is usually enough to protect a person for life.
But coronaviruses still frequently trade segments of their genetic code with each other, leaving the potential for immune evasion wide open.
 

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