Coronavirus

@bobsal u1553115,

Hey don't worry about it.

I guess the CDC just throws numbers out there for the hell of it.

LL just likes to argue for the sake of it and loves to throw out "buzz" words to sound as if she or he knows what they are talking about.

I rarely put much credence into anyone who uses too many buzz words.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

(I upthumbed Lava's post, even though I disagree with him).

There are thousands of people who die in automobile accidents every year. I couldn't find the percentage of accidents that are fatal, but it could be 3%. But even if it is not, when you drive (or swim, or take an airplane, or put salt on your food)... you are participating in "risky behavior".

We are all gamblers.

0 Replies

@engineer,

engineer wrote:

Deaths per 1 million people per year from auto accidents in the US are around 100. At a 1% fatality rate, Covid 19 would be 10,000 or 100x the risk from driving.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_traffic_deaths_per_VMT,_VMT,_per_capita,_and_total_annual_deaths.png

You are comparing apples and oranges.

Deaths per 1 million people for covid-19 are around 280. It is more than auto-accidents, but only about triple.

Engineer is exaggerating a wee bit.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Oh? Care to disprove it? Didn't think so.

Out of 220,000,000 licensed drivers last year 35,000 deaths. 1.6/1000 death rate.
https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/198029/total-number-of-us-licensed-drivers-by-state/

https://www.statista.com/topics/1197/car-drivers/

Over 80,000 deaths from Covid. In four months. Lets take Donnie Fat Cheek's figures - he says 50,000 thousand dead, in four months. Do you think 220,000,000 have had Covid yet? Me and Donney Fat Cheeks agree and say no. 1,500,000 cases in US.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1043366/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-cases-worldwide-by-country/

If you think you're safer with Covida19 statistically than driving - you're nuts.

1 Reply

@bobsal u1553115,

You want me to "disprove" that 280 is less than 3x of 100.

You are just looking for a fight? Simple multiplication is something tonight about.

1 Reply

2 + 2 = 4

(Let's see how many people thumb this down. It is getting ridiculous when people care so much about fighting for their ideological bubble that they deny basic mathematical facts).

1 Reply

@Linkat,

Little known fact: the CDC collects a royalty every time on of their statistics gets used. That's why there's such a snow flurry of them. They make so many statistics they have to hire people off the streets to make them up!!!

Ask cold joint!

1 Reply

You all are getting confused between two different quantities.

1) There are about 331,000,000 people in the United States.
About 93,000 people have died of the Corona Virus.

93,000/333,000,000 = 0.00027927927

That is .02% (considerably less than 1%). It is 280 people per million.

2) Of the people who are unlucky enough to contract Covid-19, about 3.7% of them die.

That doesn't mean that anywhere near 3.7% of people will die of Covid-19. In fact according to the models, the worst case with zero social distancing will result in 2,200,000 deaths. That is still significantly less than 1%.

If you are going to make a mathematical argument, you should make sure you get the mathematics correct.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

2 + 2 = 4

(Let's see how many people thumb this down. It is getting ridiculous when people care so much about fighting for their ideological bubble that they deny basic mathematical facts).

The answer is at least 8 people will thumb down a basic mathematical fact.

0 Replies

@maxdancona,

Which is the larger fraction, dimwit - 35,000/220,000,000 or 80,000/1,500,000 (or in Donnie two Scoops world 50,000/1,500,000)?

Even simpler, maybe you don't get fractions. which is the biggest number - 80,000(or the Orange Shitgibbon's 50,000) in only four months or 35,000 over twelve months?

Fell free to dump some zerod to use your fingers and toes - is eight (five in tRump's world) bigger than 3.5? Forget the amount of time involved.

Making it any simpler would require a funnel and drilling a hole into to your empty head.

I cannot believe how tenaciously you will hang onto your mistakes.

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@maxdancona,

We are talking about whether there is more risk in driving or getting Covid.

Secondly we're talking about years of driving vs. only five months of getting covid. I voluntarily drive, I don't choose to get Covid, we do not know how bad its going to get, but lets modify your death totals of driving to this last four months. That makes the death total closer to 12,000. So maybe you'd like to gussy your numbers up a little? Your conclusion will still be somewhere up your butt but at least the number will be accurate even as your supposition is further down the road.

2 Replies

@bobsal u1553115,

The rate of people dying of covid-19 this year (so far) is 280 per million.
The rate of people dying of automobile accidents in a typical year is 100 per million.
The number of covid-19 deaths is less than triple the number of automobile accident deaths.

What are we fighting about?

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Quote:

What are we fighting about?

You never needed a reason before. You even brag about it. Check yourself out on my "neither socialist nor libertarian am I".

1 Reply

@bobsal u1553115,

Fair enough. It kind of isn't fair to Linkat or engineer though...

0 Replies

@bobsal u1553115,

bobsal u1553115 wrote:

Little known fact: the CDC collects a royalty every time on of their statistics gets used. That's why there's such a snow flurry of them. They make so many statistics they have to hire people off the streets to make them up!!!

Ask cold joint!

Yeah! Then I helped them get some more money - lets post some more!

1 Reply

@bobsal u1553115,

bobsal u1553115 wrote:

We are talking about whether there is more risk in driving or getting Covid.

Secondly we're talking about years of driving vs. only five months of getting covid. I voluntarily drive, I don't choose to get Covid, we do not know how bad its going to get, but lets modify your death totals of driving to this last four months. That makes the death total closer to 12,000. So maybe you'd like to gussy your numbers up a little? Your conclusion will still be somewhere up your butt but at least the number will be accurate even as your supposition is further down the road.

Ok boys lets not fight -- you can carve it out any way you want.

Why I use the ceteris paribus, because you cannot control all the other moving parts.

You can say yeah I can choose not to drive or get in a car - which in reality you can. But it is unrealistic in today's world and especially in the US unless you live in a city. Almost everyone uses a car somewhat regularly and those that do not like those that live in NYC and do not own still take taxis - rent cars to get out of the city or gets a ride from someone from time to time.

As far as COVID - correct you do not have a choice on getting it - however, you can avoid it but staying in your house, getting delivery, etc. So you do have some control. Reality is though unless you are in a high risk group - you are likely to get stir crazy and will go out here and there.

My actual comment although it was comparing driving - was to make clear that the % of death rate for the average person is lower than stated simply because covid disproportionately kills older people. Now LL will pull some argument that this is not the case, --- the only thing I can say if LL decides to argue again - is that we really only have short term stats so anything can happen and it could change.

But I pulled my ceteris paribus (a concept I loved from the beginning in economics) so my stats stand because in my omnipresence I can cause all other conditions to remain the same.

So I win. Laughing

2 Replies

@Linkat,

Linkat wins!

(Are you OK with that bobsal? I can play nice.)

1 Reply

@Linkat,

Get the shovels out, the bigguns!

0 Replies

@Linkat,

Works for me!

0 Replies

@maxdancona,

Quote:

...I can play nice.

That'd be a first.

2 Replies

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