26
   

Coronavirus

 
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:16 am
@bobsal u1553115,
I tried to delete this.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:18 am
Warning signs for US as Covid cases rise in Europe
A health worker collects nasal swab samples in Los Angeles.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/18/us-covid-next-surge-variant-ba2

‘There are more unanswered questions about this than any previous variant.’

The US must prepare now for the next surge or variant, whether it’s BA.2 or a different one, experts say
Melody Schreiber
Fri 18 Mar 2022 02.00 EDT
Last modified on Fri 18 Mar 2022 09.22 EDT

Cases and deaths from Covid-19 have fallen in the US, but warning signs and rises in other countries are prompting experts to take future and existing variants of the virus seriously – and they are warning that America has not yet reached the endemic phase.

It’s important to prepare now for the next surge or variant, whether that’s BA.2 or a different one, experts say.
Once again, America is in denial about signs of a fresh Covid wave
Read more

While it’s not yet clear if BA.2, a sublineage of Omicron, will cause another surge so soon on the heels of the first Omicron outbreak, it shows worrying signs of being able to reinfect those who previously recovered from Covid, like its sibling BA.1.

Several countries in Europe are seeing another surge now, and early indicators, such as wastewater monitoring, show that cases may start to tick back up in the US. But it’s not clear whether the reason for the surge is because of the variant’s increased transmissibility or its ability to evade immunity, or countries’ relaxed precautions and waning immunity – or all of the above.

“​​That’s a really, really hard one to answer definitively, because everything’s happening at the same time,” said Aris Katzourakis, a professor specializing in virus evolution at the University of Oxford. But he and other researchers warned on Monday that other variants will emerge, and they could be more severe than variants we’ve seen before.

While Omicron is less severe than Delta, Delta was more severe than previous variants.

Scientists are watching BA.2 especially closely for signs that it is adept at reinfection after previous bouts with Covid.

“That is the most important and challenging scientific question right now in the field of Sars-CoV-2 epidemiology,” said Samuel Scarpino, a mathematical epidemiologist and managing director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute.

“It’s very unusual to see a surge followed by another surge in rapid succession. When that happens, it’s almost always a sign of some kind of immune evasion.”

The US is frequently three to four weeks behind surges in the UK, Scarpino said. “I think the signs are all pointing towards there being a surge of BA.2 in the US, but what we’re seeing in Europe has just started to happen over the past week and a half – so it’s still early days, which means there’s a lot of uncertainty.”

It’s not yet clear how bad such a wave would be, especially given prior immunity from the recent surge and changes in behavior.

“There are more unanswered questions about this than any previous variant,” he said.

Understanding the nature of new variants is more complicated than it was when Covid first emerged, he added. Now huge swaths of the population have very different levels of protection, whether from vaccination or from previous infection, which may have occurred one or two years ago and begun to fade. Only 44% of the US population has been boosted.

That makes vaccination and booster campaigns all the more important in preparation for coming surges, Scarpino said. “It takes weeks to build up the immunity; sometimes it takes weeks and weeks to get the campaigns rolled out. We really need to be moving on this now.”

That’s because there will undoubtedly be another variant of concern, even if BA.2 fizzles, he said.

There is “a real and credible risk that there could be another surge coming, and we just need to make sure people are aware of this and that we have plans in place to respond to make sure that we’re not back in the middle of all this again in a month”.

Yet the Biden administration has announced that it is running low on Covid funds, which could create massive gaps in its ability to respond to this and other variants.

Amid messages of optimism about falling cases from top health officials, momentum on funding Covid initiatives – including testing, treatments, research, wastewater monitoring, hospitalization costs and vaccination – is stalling. Funds could run out by the end of the month for some of these programs.

Part of the problem centers around a misunderstanding of what happens when a virus becomes endemic.

Endemicity has a very narrow definition in epidemiology. A pathogen is considered endemic when the number of people who are susceptible to the virus balances out the reproduction number, creating a steady number of cases each year.

In other words, it’s regular and predictable enough, because populations have a certain level of immunity, that experts have some ability to anticipate what’s going to happen.

Some commentators have suggested that the US has already reached this state – and, perhaps more worryingly, have assumed that the virus will inevitably evolve to become milder.

“Both of those are problematic,” said Katzourakis, who has also written about the harms of endemic viruses. This virus is still surging out of control, and “we don’t know what and when it’s going to come next”.

“Endemic” also doesn’t mean “safe”, Scarpino said – and it doesn’t mean that officials give up on battling the virus.

There are many diseases, such as malaria, rotavirus and hepatitis C, that are endemic but still deadly, Katzourakis said. “And we also try our best to manage them – we don’t just let them do their thing.”

Endemic viruses, like influenza, also regularly mutate to create epidemics or even pandemics, he said. And “the more the virus circulates uncontrollably in the population, the higher the chance of another variant that’s going to scupper our optimistic hopes will be”.

The biggest concern now is that officials seem to be relinquishing control of the virus. “It seems a very, very risky situation to be in,” Katzourakis said. “That’s the real danger here – accepting that we shouldn’t be doing something to control the virus. That part then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where, by not doing anything, we’re creating a situation that gets ahead of ourselves and causes us even more problems.”

That’s one reason why closely monitoring viruses is still important even after they’ve become embedded in human populations.

Scarpino compares this kind of work to weather forecasting. “People complain about the accuracy of weather reports a lot, but weather reporting is actually pretty darn accurate,” he said. If schools close due to inclement weather, they usually have an idea of how long those closures will last – think days, not months.

The US needs a similar system for pathogen forecasting, he said. “If you have real-time information, we can keep schools open … We can save lives.”

A major part of that is having very up-to-date information that’s communicated clearly. Right now, CDC data lags by about two weeks, making it difficult to grasp what’s happening.

“I would never decide to carry an umbrella or not, based on a weather forecast from two weeks ago,” Scarpino said.

“We know that people will take real-time action on weather data, from things as small as carrying an umbrella or putting on a raincoat to things much bigger like evacuating to get out of the way of a hurricane. We know people will do that. Now we know that that requires delivering data to people in real time, in a trusted way, through formats that they have access to.”

Understanding that viruses like Sars-CoV-2 will evolve to pose new threats, and monitoring them carefully, gives leaders time to prepare for major surges.

“Early action is always better,” Scarpino said. “If we start to see cases surging, we may need to take more measures.

“As much as I and everybody else wants this to be over, it’s not over.”
0 Replies
 
Region Philbis
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:22 am
@bobsal u1553115,

i reduced the width to 400...

https://i.imgur.com/X2PWpwZ.jpg
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:41 am
@Region Philbis,
Region Philbis wrote:
i reduced the width to 400...
The emails I get usually say "How To Increase The Size Of Your ..." Confused
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:09 am
Ivermectin didn't protect people from COVID-19, study shows
Source: Marketwatch

Researchers testing repurposed drugs against Covid-19 found that ivermectin didn’t reduce hospital admissions, in the largest trial yet of the effect of the antiparasitic on the disease driving the pandemic.

Ivermectin has received a lot of attention as a potential treatment for Covid-19 including from celebrities such as podcast host Joe Rogan. Most evidence has shown it to be ineffective against Covid-19 or has relied on data of poor quality, infectious-disease researchers said. Public-health authorities and researchers have for months said the drug hasn’t shown any benefit in treating the disease. Taking large doses of the drug is dangerous, the Food and Drug Administration has said.

The latest trial, of nearly 1,400 Covid-19 patients at risk of severe disease, is the largest to show that those who received ivermectin as a treatment didn’t fare better than those who received a placebo.

“There was no indication that ivermectin is clinically useful,” said Edward Mills, one of the study’s lead researchers and a professor of health sciences at Canada’s McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario. Dr. Mills on Friday plans to present the findings, which have been accepted for publication in a major peer-reviewed medical journal, at a public forum sponsored by the National Institutes of Health.


Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ivermectin-didnt-protect-people-from-covid-19-study-shows-11647602256
0 Replies
 
Region Philbis
 
  3  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:09 am
@Walter Hinteler,

we can go in that direction, if you prefer...
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 12:19 pm
‘Fewer than one in seven’ new Covid infections being included in daily figures [in the UK]
Quote:
An average of 34,500 cases of coronavirus per day were being recorded at the end of February, according to the Government’s Covid-19 dashboard.

But the true total was likely to be more than seven times this figure, at 251,500 a day, according to estimates published on Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The gap has increased from mid-February, when the estimate was five times the dashboard average, while at the end of January it was three and a half times the size.
[...]
But the growing size of the gap between the two totals shows just how many people are being missed from the official tally.

Professor Kevin McConway of the Open University said there was now a “major discrepancy” between the dashboard numbers and the ONS estimates, which are published each Friday in the weekly infection survey.

“The most obvious explanation is that people just aren’t being tested as much as they were, so the dashboard isn’t picking up new infections in the same way that it did,” he added.

“The indications are that the trends on the dashboard may well not be representing what’s actually going on.

“This discrepancy is a very important reason why it’s important to continue with the infection survey.”

The ONS figures are based on nose and throat swabs taken regularly from a representative sample of tens of thousands of people in private households, regardless of whether they know they have Covid-19 or have reported a positive result.

In doing this, the ONS is able to produce estimates of the true number of people who are being infected with coronavirus each day across the country.

Analysis by the PA news agency of the latest ONS data shows that around 1.5 million new Covid-19 infections are likely to have been missed from the official dashboard count for the week to February 26.

This is up from an estimated 1.3 million missed in the previous week.


The actual number of people infected with the coronavirus is likely to be significantly higher than the officially reported number in all countries (except perhaps China, for example).
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 02:00 pm
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Makes Her Most Ignorant Vaccine Claim Yet
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) again tried to attack vaccines, but the detail at the center of her argument was completely wrong.

The conspiracy theorist and right-wing lawmaker, who last month was a key speaker at a white nationalist event, tried to blast coronavirus booster shots by comparing COVID-19 vaccines to other inoculations.

“I have never seen the CDC coming out, saying, ’Oh you’ve got to get your second polio shot, you gotta get your third, you gotta get your fourth,” she said.

The CDC has, in fact, said exactly that. The agency’s website explains that polio vaccination is a four-dose regimen and details when each shot should be given.





https://www.yahoo.com/news/rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-makes-090922615.html
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 02:27 pm
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 02:33 pm
What You Don't Know About Russia's 'Bioweapons' Bullshit

Adam Rawnsley
@arawnsley
New from me: a look at how the Kremlin has been utterly lazy in copy-pasting its biolabs propaganda from previous disinformation campaigns against U.S.-funded labs in Kazakhstan and Georgia

thedailybeast.com
What You Don’t Know About Russia’s ‘Bioweapons’ Bullshit
The Kremlin’s web of biolab lies was spun long before Vladimir Putin waged war on Ukraine.
1:13 PM · Mar 18, 2022


https://www.thedailybeast.com/you-dont-know-about-russias-bioweapons-propaganda-in-the-ukraine-war

Since it launched a new invasion of Ukraine, Russia has scrambled to come up with a better narrative to justify its aggression than the “denazification” of a government run by the Jewish descendant of Holocaust survivors.

The story Russia has settled on—Ukraine is cooking up secret biological weapons—is worse than nonsense. It’s a rerun. The propaganda about bogus biolab work put out by the Kremlin over the past few days is copy-pasted almost directly from years of similar nonsense stories that covert Kremlin trolls have used to try and discredit legitimate biological research in other former Soviet republics.

Before Russia’s invasion, the objects of Moscow’s biolab ire were the so-called Lugar Labs in Georgia and Kazakhstan. The labs, named for the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction legislation passed with the help of former Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, were part of an effort to give steady, rewarding work to former Soviet scientists with experience in weapons of mass destruction-adjacent fields, so they wouldn’t be forced to offer their services to potential weapons programs in rogue states.

Insofar as the labs kept scientists working on things other than weapons programs, they were a success in the Defense Department’s eyes. The Kremlin, however, looked at them differently. Rather than a welcome nonproliferation effort, the Russian government has treated them as a hostile source of American influence in what Moscow considers its own sphere of influence.

Case in point: the effort to spread a conspiracy theory about bat research at a U.S.-funded lab in Tbilisi, Georgia.

*snip*
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 06:08 pm
'Stealth' COVID Variant Spreading Faster in NY Than US, CDC Says: What to Know About BA.2
Source: nbc





According to the CDC, the "stealth" omicron variant, BA.2, accounts for 39% of COVID circulating in New York and New Jersey right now; that compares with a quarter of new infections nationally


By Jennifer Millman • Published March 18, 2022 • Updated 4 hours ago
0:01/ 1:50



Another COVID variant is contributing to increasing cases in NYC and across America once again, fueling fresh worries as the pandemic recovery appears to hit an unprecedented stride
According to the CDC, the "stealth" omicron variant, BA.2, accounts for 39% of COVID circulating in New York and New Jersey right now; that compares with a quarter of new infections nationally
At this point, it's unclear if BA.2 is linked to more severe COVID cases or is more vaccine-resistant but WHO says it is "inherently more transmissible; a case uptick, but no major resurgence, is expected

Rising COVID infections associated with the so-called "stealth" omicron variant BA.2 are fueling fresh leeriness about the state of the pandemic in New York City and America, just as life as we now know it is starting to return to normal.
.................................

So how worried should you be? Not much, experts say.

On Friday, the Biden administration's incoming COVID czar Dr. Ashish Jha said he wasn't expecting the latest variant to trigger yet another national surge in infections, given the overwhelming prevalence of those vaccinated and boosted.

.......................

Read more: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/stealth-covid-variant-spreading-faster-in-ny-than-us-cdc-says-what-to-know-about-ba-2/3605342/
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Tue 22 Mar, 2022 08:12 am
https://images.dailykos.com/images/1049699/story_image/TMW2022-03-23color.png
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  4  
Tue 22 Mar, 2022 08:22 am
https://i.imgur.com/5dDOwm3.png
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Wed 23 Mar, 2022 02:05 am
Long Covid could create a generation affected by disability, with people forced out of their homes and work, and some even driven to suicide, a leading expert has warned.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian, Prof Danny Altmann – an immunologist at Imperial College London – said that the UK’s current approach to Covid fails to take the impact of infections sufficiently seriously, adding that more needs to be done to aid diagnosis and treatment of long Covid.

Long Covid could create a generation affected by disability, expert warns
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Wed 23 Mar, 2022 09:37 am

COVID-19 is surging again in Europe thanks to the BA.2 subvariant and is likely to spread to the US soon

https://www.businessinsider.com/omicron-europe-surge-ba2-us-wave-likely-coming-2022-3

This article has good charts too.

Coronavirus cases in Europe are rising again as the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron spreads.

COVID-19 waves in Europe typically precede the US by a couple of weeks.
Experts say the US could even get it worse, as booster uptake in the US has been low.

The US could get a worse wave
Some experts warn that the US could get a worse BA.2 wave than Europe, with unboosted vulnerable and older people at more risk than those in Europe.

The uptake of booster vaccines has been poorer in the US: As of March 13, only one in three in the US population had received a third shot, compared to about 60% in the UK, Germany, and Denmark.

Wastewater surveillance suggests there may be more COVID-19 cases than are being reported. Some sites in the US reported over a 1,000% increase in the levels of genetic material from the coronavirus detected in sewage compared with 15 days earlier, as shown below.
0 Replies
 
Glennn
 
  -3  
Sat 26 Mar, 2022 04:10 pm
@hightor,
Quote:
This edited quote can be found on a variety of anti-vaccine, alt-right websites, and is always presented out of context.

Sure, hightor.

So, what's this, the fifth or sixth time you've been given the opportunity to provide the proper context? Doing so would help you avoid looking like someone who believes that repeating something makes that something true. So, why don't you surprise everyone with the proper context? I provided you with the source video; should be a piece of cake . . .
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

…If you get [perform the PCR test at] a cycle threshold of 35 or more…the chances of it being replication-confident [aka accurate] are miniscule…you almost never can culture virus [detect a true positive result] from a 37 threshold cycle…even 36…”
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

He's saying that if the test is performed at a cycle-threshold of anything over 35, you're not going to get meaningful results. You believe that that's not what he's saying. However, your failure to provide proper context (several times) leaves little doubt that you're arguing just for the sake of arguing now. You must not want to believe that tony knew the test was set too high. But he did.

EDIT: I will assume that the down-thumbers must also know the proper context to tony's statement since they do indicate that they disagree with my interpretation. So, why don't they provide it?
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Sun 27 Mar, 2022 05:02 am
Quote:
Ninety percent false positives means no pandemic.

That's a relief!

bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Sun 27 Mar, 2022 06:56 am
Pretending the Pandemic Is Over Will Not Make It So
March 25, 2022
Credit...Rebecca Chew/The New York Times; photograph by Burazin, via Getty Images

By The Editorial Board

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

The worst of the Covid-19 pandemic may be behind us, but pretending that it is over will not make it so. A new Omicron subvariant, BA.2, is driving up coronavirus case counts in Europe and Asia, and experts predict it soon will account for the majority of new cases in the United States. The impact is uncertain. On the one hand, many Americans have already been infected by a similar strain of the virus. On the other hand, BA.2 arrives as people increasingly are resuming prepandemic behaviors, and according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, roughly one-third of Americans have not completed their initial round of vaccinations, and more than 70 percent have not received booster shots.

In the face of this uncertainty, it would be reckless for the government to reduce its efforts to minimize new cases and help those who fall ill. Yet that is exactly what is happening after Congress recently failed to approve $15.6 billion for tests, treatments and vaccines.

Denied the funding it needs, the Biden administration is curtailing its efforts to combat the virus. Last week, the administration said that it would reduce the distribution of highly effective monoclonal antibody treatments by more than 30 percent and that it would be forced to end shipments this spring. It also stopped accepting reimbursement claims for Covid-19 tests and treatments from uninsured Americans; vaccine reimbursements will be accepted only through April 5. And the government said that it lacked sufficient funds to place an order for enough doses of vaccines to ensure the availability of booster shots later this year.
Opinion Conversation Questions surrounding the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, as well as vaccines and treatments.

Congress must approve more funding immediately. Ensuring that Covid tests, treatments and vaccines remain readily available is the best way to prevent new waves of infections and to preserve the progress so far toward the end of the pandemic.

Failing to maintain adequate public funding means Americans increasingly will have to rely on their own resources. In effect, the United States is reverting to its usual approach to health care: Those with money and insurance will be able to get tests and treatments; those without may not. The price for a dose of monoclonal antibody treatment can approach $2,000, and even the relatively modest cost of test kits or vaccinations can discourage people from taking the basic steps necessary to protect themselves and others.

A bill to fund the government, which passed this month, initially included $15.6 billion in Covid aid, which would have provided the administration with much of the $22.5 billion it has requested. But the funding was stripped because House Democrats were unable to resolve an internal squabble. The bill would have repurposed unused money from earlier rounds of Covid aid, but some Democrats resisted, insisting the government should provide new funding.

To pass a new bill, Democrats will need the support of at least 10 Senate Republicans, and those most amenable want to use money from prior appropriations.

That should not be a deal breaker. States have received more federal aid in the past two years than they know what to do with; some state coffers are overflowing. Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia signed legislation this week that will send up to $500 to Georgia households to help with the rising cost of food, gas and other essentials. About a dozen other states, including California, are considering similar distributions of surplus cash. But while higher prices are a real challenge for many Americans, policymakers must also remain focused on preventing fresh outbreaks of Covid-19, which could be even more economically painful.

A chunk of the funding requested by the Biden administration, for example, was earmarked to help lower-income countries fight the coronavirus. The United States has a moral obligation to provide this humanitarian aid, and there are diplomatic benefits to helping other nations. In addition, it will help the whole world get closer to the end of the pandemic. Allowing the virus to continue to run rampant in some parts of the world increases the chances that new variants will continue to develop and spread.

It is worth underscoring that much of what the Biden administration is requesting should not require emergency funding. The United States ought to maintain funding for public health, including the resources to monitor infectious diseases and to develop new vaccines and treatments, in the same way that it maintains funding for other forms of national defense. The gaping holes in the nation’s public health infrastructure, which the pandemic exposed, were created by exactly the kind of shortsightedness now on display.
0 Replies
 
Glennn
 
  -2  
Sun 27 Mar, 2022 07:02 am
@hightor,
If anyone can provide the proper context to tony's statement, this would be the best time to do that. So far, we have a no-show and people who are choosing to ignore the implications of tony's oh so clear statement. And of course, there's the CDC lie concerning its possession of the virus. But let's get the cycle-threshold issue taken care of first.

So, why didn't tony speak up when the FDA decided that the test should be run at 40 cycles? I can only think of one reason for the FDA and tony to go against the science.
hightor
 
  3  
Sun 27 Mar, 2022 07:20 am
@Glennn,
Quote:
If anyone can provide the proper context to tony's statement...

That's your responsibility.
Quote:
I can only think of one reason for the FDA and tony to go against the science.

Great – then you've answered your own question. Case closed.
 

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