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Coronavirus

 
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Nov, 2021 10:00 am
China study warns of 'colossal' COVID outbreak if it opens up like U.S., France

BEIJING (Reuters) - China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.

In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments.

Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the potential results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

China's daily new cases would reach at least 637,155 if it adopted the United States' pandemic strategy, the report said.

And daily cases would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it imitated France, it said.

...

China reported 23 new confirmed coronavirus cases for Nov. 27, down from 25 a day earlier, its health authority said on Sunday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-study-warns-of-colossal-covid-outbreak-if-it-opens-up-like-u-s-france/ar-AARd40H
3
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 12:01 am
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:
I think this next one is finally beginning to scare the bejeebers out of them.

Delta is 70% more transmissible than original Covid.

They think Omicron is 500% more transmissible than original Covid.

Here is a graphic showing how fast Omicron (red) became the dominant strain in South Africa, compared to the amount of time it took Beta and Delta to take over and become the dominant strain:

https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dd78fcfc-d008-496a-97c2-21d6a51555ca_1199x759.png
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 07:54 am
@oralloy,
Something I never thought I'd say twice in a decade. Good post. Stuff I did not know.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  6  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 10:37 am
https://i.imgur.com/nmt5sSn.jpg
0 Replies
 
Mame
 
  5  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 10:45 am
More than 2,000 patients in Canada died while waiting for medical care in 2020: report

In Ontario, the province's Financial Accountability Office predicts the province’s surgical backlog will take more than three years and $1.3 billion to clear.

In addition to life-saving surgery, patients who died while waiting for procedures that would improve quality of life in their final years, such as cataract, knee and hip surgery, were also included in the figure.

The researchers were unable to collect data from Quebec, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, “two major health regions in British Columbia, the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority and several hospitals in Ontario.”

“Many health bodies in Canada previously informed secondstreet.org that they do not track the reasons for surgical cancellations,” states the report. “If governments improved their tracking and disclosure of patient suffering in the health care system, it would be easier to determine the magnitude of the problem.”

Canada postponed more than 353,913 surgeries, procedures and other medical appointments in the first wave of COVID-19, a report from the group earlier this year found.

Ontario’s Science Table announced in April that almost a quarter million Ontarians were waiting for surgery. The Ontario Medical Association estimated last month that the first COVID-19 wave created a backlog of close to 16 million health care services in the province, more than one for each resident.

The province’s Financial Accountability Office predicted the province’s surgical backlog would take more than three years and $1.3 billion to clear.

The OMA found it would take almost ten months to get caught up on cardiac surgery and almost two years for knee surgery, if working at 120 per cent. The enormous backlog measured out to 477,301 MRIs, 269,683 CT scans, 90,136 cataract surgery, 38,263 knee and 16,506 hip replacements and 3,163 coronary artery bypass grafts.
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 11:22 am
@Mame,
maxdancona wrote:
Whining about non-vaxxers helps how?


Mr. Green
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 11:27 am
@hightor,
That has to be the dictionary definition of hypocrisy, 99% of Max's posts are him whining about "liberals."

0 Replies
 
Mame
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 11:29 am
@hightor,
Laughing
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 11:48 am
The head of Moderna, Stéphane Bancel, is sceptical whether his vaccine protects against the Omikron variant. Uğur Şahin from Biontech now expressed himself in a much more optimistic tone.

Biontech CEO Uğur Şahin expects the Mainz-based manufacturer's existing Covid-19 vaccine to provide protection against severe disease even with the new Omikron variant. "We think it is likely that vaccinated people will have significant protection against severe diseases caused by Omikron," Şahin told Reuters news agency. "We expect this protection to be even more pronounced once people have had their third vaccination."

However, he said, there would be no certainty about the vaccine's effectiveness against the new variant until laboratory data and real-world infection data had been analysed. Şahin expects more clarity in about two weeks.

"We expect that the protection may be reduced to some extent against infection, but how much, we have to see." He said there was no evidence so far that infections with Omikron were more severe. But it is not yet known whether the virus is more infectious and spreads faster than the current Delta variant, he said. "From my point of view, there is no reason to be particularly worried. The only thing that worries me at the moment is that there are people who have not yet been vaccinated at all."
[...]
Vaccine manufacturers Moderna, Biontech and Pfizer, as well as supporters of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V, which has not yet been approved in the EU, have already announced that they will review their vaccines and, if necessary, develop a vaccine adapted to the Omikron variant. According to Moderna boss Bancel, however, this is likely to take several months.


Translated from a (in German) Spiegel report
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 05:16 pm

Last month, a study published in The Lancet Regional Health revealed that Veterans died at lower rates in 2020 compared to the general population.

“This suggests VA performed better than expected,” said Kevin Griffith, PhD, assistant professor in the Department of Health Policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center who studies the VA. “Despite VA-enrolled veterans having a higher prevalence of risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness, their rate of excess deaths was markedly lower than what was observed in the general population.”

The study, conducted by researchers from Vanderbilt University Medical Center and Boston University, looked at the demographics and health of 11.4 million veterans at the county level between 2016 and 2019. Several analytical models were then developed to predict rates of mortality from March to December 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic swept the country, flooding hospitals and critical care units with sick patients.

The data revealed that deaths among veterans using VA health care increased 16% in 2020, compared to a 23% increase in the general population. Researchers concluded that despite a higher number of comorbidities in the veteran population, VA performed better at preventing deaths related to the pandemic. These comorbidities, including advanced age, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, are known to increase the risk of negative outcomes due to COVID-19.

The researchers speculated that one reason behind this finding is that VA already had an existing telehealth infrastructure in place.

Before the pandemic, VA would do about 40,000 telehealth visits in a month. Now VA may do 40,000 telehealth visits in a single day. With virtual health care, VA did not miss a beat in providing high quality care to Veterans during the pandemic. In fact, many Veterans have chosen to remain with virtual care even when an in-person appointment is offered.

Another reason may be VA’s integrated health care model. Over the years, VA has evolved into an interconnected, institutionalized system of care and services. And while many of these services aren’t unique to the VA, it is the only health care organization that combines these services “under one roof” and integrates them in a way that is veteran-centric.

Many studies support this by confirming that fragmented health care increases the risk of adverse health outcomes, including prescription opioid overdose. The risks associated with using multiple systems of care are amplified in high-risk populations, such as those with dementia — and VA patients do skew older and have higher health burdens than non-VA patients.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 05:37 pm
@oralloy,
a virus needs a living host and so very often begins mutating the **** out of itself to where the original lethality issue is overtaken by strains that are more transmissible and with lower lethality. I recall reading some paper about genomics on many samples from exhumed victims of spanish flue led to a conclusion that the disease mutated itself into an endemic less lethal condition . however, im wondering how they determine what mutations control the infection rate v the lethal rate.

it does make a good darwinian condition, if the viruses hosts are killed off or rendered immune that is definitely not good for the virus. itd be betterfor the s virus to become only as lethal as, say, a common cold which is infective over and over to the same host.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Nov, 2021 05:38 pm
@farmerman,
actually id love to see that, very lamarkian.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2021 04:46 pm
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2021 04:49 pm
@farmerman,
I thought about that when the first work on Omicron was it was much more infectious but much less deadly.
Mame
 
  3  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2021 05:56 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
This is very interesting

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/14/science/coronavirus-transmission-cough-6-feet-ar-ul.html

from:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/01/science/coronavirus-aerosol-simulation.html
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2021 06:28 pm
@Mame,
I think we need to stand down as a planet, except for very basic things for one month. Everyone is masked everywhere but home or single occupancy space. Have the Fed ready to pay rent and freeze mortgage payments for a short period. Nixon froze the banks (a very non Republican Federal intervention and it worked.

I think this mainly required because 30%+ of this country refuses vaxx. It as frustrating as it is maddening. Freeking lemmings. And it's not as if this is an achedemic disagreement. This is science vs. RW "Christian" late nite AM radio voice.

Crazy, crazy, crazy.

Don't get me started.
Mame
 
  3  
Reply Wed 1 Dec, 2021 07:02 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:

Don't get me started.


lmao you're funny, bobsal
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Thu 2 Dec, 2021 03:35 am
I think the AGM of whiners and snivellers is this weekend.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Thu 2 Dec, 2021 05:13 am

Missouri health department found mask mandates work, but didn’t make findings public

Quote:
Mask mandates saved lives and prevented COVID-19 infections in Missouri’s biggest cities during the worst part of the delta variant wave, an analysis by the state Department of Health and Senior Services shows.

But the analysis, conducted at the request of Gov. Mike Parson’s office in early November, was never made public and was only obtained by The Missouri Independent and the Documenting COVID-19 project after a Sunshine Law request to the department.

The study compared infection and death rates in St. Louis, St. Louis County, Kansas City and Jackson County with the rest of the state. New state health Director Donald Kauerauf wrote in an email that the study’s findings showed the effectiveness of mask mandates and forwarded it to Parson’s office.

The analysis wasn’t included in material the department prepared for cabinet meetings, the emails show. Neither the health department nor Parson’s office responded to requests for comment asking why the data has not been shared publicly.

The comparison showed infection rates in “masked” jurisdictions were higher than the rest of the state in the six weeks prior to the emergence of the delta variant. Case rates then fell below other regions as the surge gathered force in late May and have remained lower since that time.

The statewide data shows that, from the end of April to the end of October, jurisdictions with mask mandates experienced an average of 15.8 cases per day for every 100,000 residents compared to 21.7 cases per day for every 100,000 residents in unmasked communities.

The four jurisdictions imposed their mask mandates in late July and early August, as the delta variant wave was peaking.

Mask requirements remain in place in St. Louis and St. Louis County. The Jackson County Legislature voted to end its requirement in early November, and the mandate in Kansas City ended Nov. 5 except for schools and school buses.

There are a number of variables that impact infection and death rates, the health director wrote in a Nov. 3 email. But the effectiveness of masks is clear, he wrote.

"I think we can say with great confidence reviewing the public health literature and then looking at the results in your study that communities where masks were required had a lower positivity rate per 100,000 and experienced lower death rates,” Kauerauf wrote.

Mask mandates have been one of the hottest political issues of the year, pitting the authority of local officials against political opposition to masks led by Republican state officials.

Parson has spoken out repeatedly against local mask mandates, calling them "WRONG" in a tweet and a contributor to the erosion of public trust. Attorney General Eric Schmitt has gone a step further, suing St. Louis, St. Louis County, Kansas City and Jackson County to block enforcement of their mask mandates.

“Jackson County has imposed an unlawful, arbitrary, and capricious mask mandate that is not supported by the data or the science,” the opening sentence to Schmitt’s lawsuit against Jackson County states.

Schmitt has also sued Columbia Public Schools for instituting mask mandates.

The state’s analysis backs up St. Louis’ push to keep its mask mandate, said Nick Dunne, spokesman for St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones.

“More than anything it confirms for us what our public health experts have been saying, that masks are an effective tool for reducing community transmission,” Dunne said.

Although Schmitt has sued, Parson and the state health department have allowed local jurisdictions to decide the health measures suited to their constituents, St. Louis County Executive Sam Page said in a statement issued Wednesday.

"This data shows that the public health experts, the St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force, and the St. Louis County Department of Public Health make good decisions to protect our community," Page said.

The records show the analysis was produced in response to a request from Alex Tuttle, Parson’s liaison to the health department.

“Can you provide examples of local mandates and how those mandates impacted the spread of COVID in those areas?” Tuttle wrote in an email sent Nov. 1 to Kauerauf.

The department completed the analysis about 48 hours later.

Despite opposition from Parson and lawsuits filed by Schmitt, Kauerauf, backed masks to control the spread of the coronavirus in his first news conference.

“I rely (on) the experts at the CDC on that. Everything I’ve read, everything I’ve seen: masks work,” Kauerauf said at his first news conference after starting his job in September.

The Independent and the Documenting COVID-19 project provided Schmitt’s office with Kauerauf’s emailed comments and the charts created by the health department. The analysis will not change its stance against mask mandates, spokesman Chris Nuelle wrote in an email.

“We dispute this premise and these charts,” Nuelle wrote. “We’ve been clear that Missourians should have the right to make their own decisions, and that government bureaucrats shouldn’t be mandating masks or vaccines. We will continue to fiercely litigate our lawsuits against mask mandates in Missouri.”

Officials in Kansas City and Jackson County have not provided comment on the health department’s analysis.

Missouri is by no means an outlier in terms of lacking a statewide mask policy or discouraging local governments from creating their own; Missouri is one of six states that never implemented a statewide mask mandate during the pandemic.

But Missouri's decision not to release public health data showing a demonstrable difference in COVID-19 infection and death in masked communities is notable and reflects the deep political polarization surrounding pandemic policies, one expert said.

"It's devastating to see what the Missouri governor did since mask policies do reduce the spread of COVID-19 and would reduce the number of people who become sick and die in Missouri," said Julia Raifman, an assistant professor of health law, policy and management at Boston University who oversees the COVID-19 U.S. State Policies Database. "It's devastating to see policymakers not implement policies that would reduce the number of children who are growing up without their parents."

The delta variant was first detected in Missouri in early May by researchers at the University of Missouri who analyze wastewater samples collected weekly. Since the arrival of the variant, the state health department has reported new infections for about 5.3% of all Missourians.

Infections have been reported for about 5.1% of the residents of the seven-county St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area tested positive in that period and about 5.7% of residents in the 10-county Kansas City Metropolitan Statistical Area.

But in three of the four jurisdictions with mask mandates, case rates were below other jurisdictions in the metro areas. That was especially true in St. Louis and St. Louis County, where coronavirus infections equaling less than 4% of the population have been reported since April 30.

Along with lower case rates, the health department analysis showed masked jurisdictions had fewer deaths per capita as well, an average of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 residents each day from May 1 to Oct. 30, compared to 0.28 deaths per day per 100,000 residents. Stated another way, unmasked communities recorded one death per 100,000 every 3.5 days compared to one death per 100,000 residents every five days where mask mandates prevailed.

Schmitt’s lawsuits against all four jurisdictions remain active, despite the actions in Kansas City and Jackson County to end the mandates.

At a hearing Tuesday in St. Louis, a judge left the St. Louis County mandate in place but scheduled a hearing for Dec. 9 for more arguments, KTVI reported. The St. Louis County Council declined to vote Tuesday night on an extension of the mask order, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported.

A major issue in Tuesday’s hearing was the impact of a decision by Cole County Judge Daniel Green, who ruled last week that health orders designed to stop the spread of COVID-19 that were issued by local health departments violated the Missouri Constitution.

There is a hearing scheduled for Wednesday afternoon on Kansas City’s motion to dismiss Schmitt’s lawsuit.

stlpublicradio
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Thu 2 Dec, 2021 06:35 am
@hightor,
Like I said: crazy, crazy, crazy.
0 Replies
 
 

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