China study warns of 'colossal' COVID outbreak if it opens up like U.S., France
BEIJING (Reuters) - China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.
In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments.
Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the potential results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.
China's daily new cases would reach at least 637,155 if it adopted the United States' pandemic strategy, the report said.
And daily cases would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it imitated France, it said.
...
China reported 23 new confirmed coronavirus cases for Nov. 27, down from 25 a day earlier, its health authority said on Sunday.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-study-warns-of-colossal-covid-outbreak-if-it-opens-up-like-u-s-france/ar-AARd40H
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@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:I think this next one is finally beginning to scare the bejeebers out of them.
Delta is 70% more transmissible than original Covid.
They think Omicron is 500% more transmissible than original Covid.
Here is a graphic showing how fast Omicron (red) became the dominant strain in South Africa, compared to the amount of time it took Beta and Delta to take over and become the dominant strain:
@oralloy,
Something I never thought I'd say twice in a decade. Good post. Stuff I did not know.
More than 2,000 patients in Canada died while waiting for medical care in 2020: report
In Ontario, the province's Financial Accountability Office predicts the province’s surgical backlog will take more than three years and $1.3 billion to clear.
In addition to life-saving surgery, patients who died while waiting for procedures that would improve quality of life in their final years, such as cataract, knee and hip surgery, were also included in the figure.
The researchers were unable to collect data from Quebec, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, “two major health regions in British Columbia, the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority and several hospitals in Ontario.”
“Many health bodies in Canada previously informed secondstreet.org that they do not track the reasons for surgical cancellations,” states the report. “If governments improved their tracking and disclosure of patient suffering in the health care system, it would be easier to determine the magnitude of the problem.”
Canada postponed more than 353,913 surgeries, procedures and other medical appointments in the first wave of COVID-19, a report from the group earlier this year found.
Ontario’s Science Table announced in April that almost a quarter million Ontarians were waiting for surgery. The Ontario Medical Association estimated last month that the first COVID-19 wave created a backlog of close to 16 million health care services in the province, more than one for each resident.
The province’s Financial Accountability Office predicted the province’s surgical backlog would take more than three years and $1.3 billion to clear.
The OMA found it would take almost ten months to get caught up on cardiac surgery and almost two years for knee surgery, if working at 120 per cent. The enormous backlog measured out to 477,301 MRIs, 269,683 CT scans, 90,136 cataract surgery, 38,263 knee and 16,506 hip replacements and 3,163 coronary artery bypass grafts.
@hightor,
That has to be the dictionary definition of hypocrisy, 99% of Max's posts are him whining about "liberals."
The head of Moderna, Stéphane Bancel, is sceptical whether his vaccine protects against the Omikron variant. Uğur Şahin from Biontech now expressed himself in a much more optimistic tone.
Biontech CEO Uğur Şahin expects the Mainz-based manufacturer's existing Covid-19 vaccine to provide protection against severe disease even with the new Omikron variant. "We think it is likely that vaccinated people will have significant protection against severe diseases caused by Omikron," Şahin told Reuters news agency. "We expect this protection to be even more pronounced once people have had their third vaccination."
However, he said, there would be no certainty about the vaccine's effectiveness against the new variant until laboratory data and real-world infection data had been analysed. Şahin expects more clarity in about two weeks.
"We expect that the protection may be reduced to some extent against infection, but how much, we have to see." He said there was no evidence so far that infections with Omikron were more severe. But it is not yet known whether the virus is more infectious and spreads faster than the current Delta variant, he said. "From my point of view, there is no reason to be particularly worried. The only thing that worries me at the moment is that there are people who have not yet been vaccinated at all."
[...]
Vaccine manufacturers Moderna, Biontech and Pfizer, as well as supporters of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V, which has not yet been approved in the EU, have already announced that they will review their vaccines and, if necessary, develop a vaccine adapted to the Omikron variant. According to Moderna boss Bancel, however, this is likely to take several months.
Translated from a (in German)
Spiegel report
Last month, a study published in The Lancet Regional Health revealed that Veterans died at lower rates in 2020 compared to the general population.
“This suggests VA performed better than expected,” said Kevin Griffith, PhD, assistant professor in the Department of Health Policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center who studies the VA. “Despite VA-enrolled veterans having a higher prevalence of risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness, their rate of excess deaths was markedly lower than what was observed in the general population.”
The study, conducted by researchers from Vanderbilt University Medical Center and Boston University, looked at the demographics and health of 11.4 million veterans at the county level between 2016 and 2019. Several analytical models were then developed to predict rates of mortality from March to December 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic swept the country, flooding hospitals and critical care units with sick patients.
The data revealed that deaths among veterans using VA health care increased 16% in 2020, compared to a 23% increase in the general population. Researchers concluded that despite a higher number of comorbidities in the veteran population, VA performed better at preventing deaths related to the pandemic. These comorbidities, including advanced age, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, are known to increase the risk of negative outcomes due to COVID-19.
The researchers speculated that one reason behind this finding is that VA already had an existing telehealth infrastructure in place.
Before the pandemic, VA would do about 40,000 telehealth visits in a month. Now VA may do 40,000 telehealth visits in a single day. With virtual health care, VA did not miss a beat in providing high quality care to Veterans during the pandemic. In fact, many Veterans have chosen to remain with virtual care even when an in-person appointment is offered.
Another reason may be VA’s integrated health care model. Over the years, VA has evolved into an interconnected, institutionalized system of care and services. And while many of these services aren’t unique to the VA, it is the only health care organization that combines these services “under one roof” and integrates them in a way that is veteran-centric.
Many studies support this by confirming that fragmented health care increases the risk of adverse health outcomes, including prescription opioid overdose. The risks associated with using multiple systems of care are amplified in high-risk populations, such as those with dementia — and VA patients do skew older and have higher health burdens than non-VA patients.
@oralloy,
a virus needs a living host and so very often begins mutating the **** out of itself to where the original lethality issue is overtaken by strains that are more transmissible and with lower lethality. I recall reading some paper about genomics on many samples from exhumed victims of spanish flue led to a conclusion that the disease mutated itself into an endemic less lethal condition . however, im wondering how they determine what mutations control the infection rate v the lethal rate.
it does make a good darwinian condition, if the viruses hosts are killed off or rendered immune that is definitely not good for the virus. itd be betterfor the s virus to become only as lethal as, say, a common cold which is infective over and over to the same host.
@farmerman,
actually id love to see that, very lamarkian.
@farmerman,
I thought about that when the first work on Omicron was it was much more infectious but much less deadly.
@Mame,
I think we need to stand down as a planet, except for very basic things for one month. Everyone is masked everywhere but home or single occupancy space. Have the Fed ready to pay rent and freeze mortgage payments for a short period. Nixon froze the banks (a very non Republican Federal intervention and it worked.
I think this mainly required because 30%+ of this country refuses vaxx. It as frustrating as it is maddening. Freeking lemmings. And it's not as if this is an achedemic disagreement. This is science vs. RW "Christian" late nite AM radio voice.
Crazy, crazy, crazy.
Don't get me started.
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:
Don't get me started.
lmao you're funny, bobsal
I think the AGM of whiners and snivellers is this weekend.
@hightor,
Like I said: crazy, crazy, crazy.
