Democrats hold a massive voter lead in states that require party registration, a gap of 12 million that could be key to whether the party takes control of the House and Senate in the fall midterm congressional elections, according to a new analysis.
Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. The states include several with key battles over House seats such as California, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
The lead is significant, said Rhodes Cook’s analysis in Center Director Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” newsletter, because in the past presidential election the majority party in 24 of the 31 states won, especially among Republican states.
In 2016, Trump won 11 of 12 majority Republican states, and took six of 19 Democratic states, said the analysis.
Of note, some of the states with registered Democrat advantages, like Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, have been functionally Republican at the presidential level for at least 15 years, said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the Crystal Ball.
That could be good news for the Republicans in the upcoming election, a sign that just being majority Democrat does not mean voters are in lock step, said the report which highlighted the growth of independent voters.
But it also noted that as the nation becomes more partisan, declaring party membership is an affirmative political stand.
“With the growth in independents, many voters seem to be saying to the two major parties: ‘a pox on both your houses,’” wrote Cook.
“Yet it also can be argued that registering Democratic or Republican is far more of a statement than it once was. In the current age of sharp-edged partisanship, there is far more than a ‘dime’s worth of difference’ between the two major parties, so registering as a Democrat or Republican is a very intentional act of differentiation,” added the report.
I just watched a YouTube segment on hillbillies in Oklahoma massing for Bernie ******* Sanders.
Wooooohooooo!!! Hillbillies who think!
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats are narrowing President Donald Trump’s early spending advantage, with two billionaire White House hopefuls joining established party groups to target the president in key battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome of next year’s election.
Priorities USA and American Bridge, two of the leading Democratic outside groups, are ramping up operations. The organization ACRONYM recently pledged to spend $75 million. And former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has pledged to spend $100 million on ads targeting Trump, while California billionaire Tom Steyer promised $50 million.
The billionaires have come under fire from some Democratic rivals for trying to buy the presidency. But the influx of cash is soothing anxiety in some corners of the party that Trump, who has repeatedly broken fundraising records, was off to an unprecedented early start in the 2020 advertising wars. Some had argued that the Democrats’ overwhelming focus on the sprawling presidential primary field allowed the president to burnish a reelection narrative unchallenged ahead of what is expected to be an exceptionally close election.
“It’s safe to say the gap is closing,” said David Brock, who leads several Democratic groups, including American Bridge. “People can breathe a little bit of a sigh of relief that there is a major Democratic response now and that Trump’s spending will be met.”
The money has put Democrats on firmer footing in states such as Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, which will be key to victory in 2020. But it’s unclear how long it will last.
Trump has built a massive money-raising machine that has fused a traditional network of big-dollar Republican donors with a sophisticated digital operation that has raked in small contributions from rank-and-file supporters.
Sitting presidents have long used their office to draw a spotlight and rake in money while the party out of power fights its way through a primary. Trump, however, never really ceased campaigning and has been running for reelection essentially since taking office, giving him a far earlier head start.
For months, his campaign has spent comparatively little on digital advertising in battlegrounds, while dumping money in population-dense states like New York, California and Texas, which are rich in potential donors but won’t decide the outcome of the election. Yet the money he is raising there will enable him to flood important states with advertising early next year.
Over the summer, the lack of spending fueled worries — and some snipping — that not enough was being done counter Trump.
“We welcome other efforts. But we also need to remember that Trump has yet to start spending money big in swing states,” said Patrick McHugh, the executive director of Priorities USA, which spent roughly $200 million during the 2016 election. “Matching dollar for dollar now would come at the detriment of matching his spending online and on television once he begins spending in earnest in states that matter.”
While the economy overall has performed well during Trump’s presidency, Priorities is driving a message that aims to move beyond the toplines and connect peoples’ frustration with their own financial well-being directly to the president. The group has yet to say how much it will spend on the 2020 contest, but it has outspent Trump $6.5 million to $2.2 million since July on Facebook and Google in Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
American Bridge, which has traditionally focused on conducting opposition research, has launched a $50 million radio, TV and digital advertising campaign in the same states that is geared toward rural and exurban voters in about 80 counties that Barack Obama carried but later switched to Trump.
“It’s a margins game that we’re playing, but we think that we can get enough people to defect,” Brock said.
The group ACRONYM will spend $75 million between now and Election Day on online advertising highlighting the “broken promises” and perceived corruption of the Trump administration. Recent ads have attacked Trump for failing to deliver on his pledge to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. by highlighting the decision by General Motors to close its Lordstown, Ohio, plant.
Organizations financed by Steyer, meanwhile, are working to register young people to vote. That includes a door-knocking campaign, as well as digital advertising by NextGen America, where he was president until stepping down over the summer to launch his campaign.
An early salvo of ads run by Bloomberg accuses Trump of not caring about health care and questions his temperament and social media use. One recent Facebook ad captioned “What did he tweet today?” features an image of a man facepalming his forehead.
“The president is out making his case. And we’ve got to make sure that he doesn’t make it unrebutted,” said Bloomberg chief adviser Howard Wolfson.
Since Trump took office, many Democrats have celebrated an outpouring of small-dollar online contributions from an energized grassroots base. Some progressives have touted this success as a viable alternative to the party’s historic reliance on wealthy donors, whom they criticize for having outsized influence.
But the reality is both streams of money will be needed against Trump. Particularly before the nominee is chosen, outside groups and the Democratic National Committee — they depend on major donors to finance their efforts — will be handling the lion’s share of general-election work.
During a recent DNC fundraiser headlined by Obama, tech CEO and philanthropist Amy Rao fired up a well-heeled crowd of about 100 who gathered at the home of megadonor Karla Jurvetson, high in the hills overlooking Silicon Valley.
Defeating Trump, she said, was so important that they should be digging in to their “retirement and what you thought you were going to leave to your children” to support the party regardless of who becomes the nominee. She encouraged the crowd to give “so much that it actually hurts.”
“It’s only money. You’ll never miss it,” Rao said. “The biggest gift you can give to the generations that follow us is to make sure this president loses in 2020.”
Democrats aim to catch up to Trump’s 2020 cash advantage.
His liver probably looks like a foie gras
Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg on Thursday landed the endorsements of three former leading officials in Barack Obama’s administration, giving the South Bend, Indiana mayor further material to spotlight comparisons between himself and the former president.
But I guess, it would cause problems between him and Biden.
Trump if he wants to live into eighties and nineties.
The Democratic National Committee announced Monday that it is funding full-time staff in eight presidential election battleground states, showing its commitment to state-level investment early in the election cycle.
The central party body, which oversees the presidential nominating process and provides support for general-election efforts across the country, is financing the hiring in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Though the DNC is funding the new personnel, the Democratic Party in each of the individual states will employ them.
The funding for those states’ organizers, which will be responsible for outreach to voters in key constituencies, comes from the DNC’s State Party Innovation Fund. The DNC did not provide a dollar figure for the investment, but said it was larger than comparable investments at this stage in the 2016 election cycle.
“Organizing at the community level is our highest priority as the DNC,” Muthoni Wambu Kraal, the DNC’s national political and organizing director, said in a statement. “People are our most powerful resource in this election ― from rural and urban communities, to secular and nonsecular communities, to voters of every ethnicity, age, and background.”
The investment, which the DNC emphasized is the first of several rounds of funding, provides a look at states that national Democrats believe can propel them to victory against President Donald Trump in November 2020. In particular, the funding for Texas, a historically conservative state where Democrats have been gaining, is likely to raise some eyebrows.
The roles for which the funding is earmarked also offer an idea of the demographic groups that Democrats see as most essential to their bids. The DNC is funding the positions of Latinx and Native American outreach directors in Arizona; African American and Latino constituency directors in Florida; an African American outreach director in Michigan; a constituency outreach director in Texas; a youth vote director and rural organizing staff in Wisconsin; rural organizing and constituency outreach staff in Pennsylvania; Asian-American and Pacific Islander and Latinx organizing staff in Nevada; and grassroots outreach staff in Colorado.
“We need people from all walks of life to organize and create the change this country needs,” Wambu Kraal said. “And that requires the early investments the DNC is rolling out now.”
Since Chairman Tom Perez took over the DNC in February 2017, he has sought to repair relations between the party committee and state-level parties still reeling from the neglect they felt they endured during the Obama presidency. Notwithstanding major funding challenges, Perez quickly increased the DNC’s monthly payments to the state parties from $7,500 to $10,000.
Still, Perez has periodically been at odds with some state party officials over matters including his endorsement in the New York gubernatorial primary, the makeup of a centralized data trust, and even the dissemination of grants from the State Party Innovation Fund.
Thanks Impeachment: Trump Now Beating Every Democrat In Three Battleground States
As the race currently stands, President Trump is in the lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in hypothetical match-ups against former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Bernie Sanders, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Across the three states, Trump’s closest contest is against Joe Biden, although the president leads by an average of 6 percentage points against each Democrat.
Do you guys get paid by Russia by the thought or by the week