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The Democrats Gloat Thread

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 11:17 am
Anecdotal evidence of original Republicans being turned off by today's Bush Republicans:

Quote:
Simmering Rage Within the GOP

By David S. Broder
Thursday, July 27, 2006

My weekend visitor was one of the founders of the postwar Republican Party in the South, one of those stubborn men who challenged the Democratic rule in his one-party state. He was conservative enough that in the [..] 1952 [primary], his sympathies were with Sen. Robert Taft of Ohio, not Dwight D. Eisenhower.

He has lived long enough to see Republicans elected as senator and governor of his state and to see a Republican from the Sun Belt behemoth of Texas capture the White House. His profession won't let him speak with his name attached, but he is sadly disillusioned.

"I thought it was stupid," he said [about the veto Bush administered to the bill expanding federal funding for embryonic stem cell research]. "I know too many people who are like this" -- and he shook his hands like a victim of Parkinson's disease -- "and their only hope of a cure is in stem cells. Now Bush is forcing that science to move overseas."

He went on: "How the hell long can they refuse to raise the minimum wage?" He was furious, he said, with the Republican leaders of Congress who keep blocking bills to raise the minimum wage, which has been stuck at $5.15 an hour for years. "I'm a conservative," he said, "but they make me sound like a damned liberal the way they act. They spend like fools, they run up the deficits and they refuse to give a raise to the working people who are struggling. How the hell are you supposed to live on $5.15 an hour these days?"

"If it wasn't for Pelosi," he said, "I'd just as soon the Democrats take over this fall. Get some checks and balances and teach these guys a lesson."

In the end, his dislike of the House minority leader, Nancy Pelosi of California, and his ingrained disdain for the Democrats may keep my friend voting Republican. But the complaints that I heard from him -- echoed by many of his contemporaries in the Taft-Goldwater-Reagan wing of the GOP -- are a significant factor in the dynamics of the midterm election. They could spell trouble for Republicans in mobilizing their vote this fall.

I first became aware of the spreading discontent on the right in visiting with people in the church social hall after the funeral this spring for Lyn Nofziger, Ronald Reagan's longtime press spokesman and adviser. The comments about the Bush White House people -- who were notable by their absence at the service -- startled me.

But since then I have heard the refrain over and over: They never reached out to us. They never thought they needed our help. Now they're in trouble. To hell with them.

Whether or not the complaints are justified, they are epidemic. They are often accompanied, as they were in the case of my weekend visitor, by the comment that everything the White House does seems to be aimed at pleasing only one section of the Republican coalition -- the religious right.

That is why there was so much high-fiving on e-mails and phone calls among other Republicans over the defeat last week of Ralph Reed, the one-time driving force of Pat Robertson's religious-political movement who lost the nomination for lieutenant governor of Georgia because of his links to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. [..]

But the dissent threatens Republican chances of avoiding a major defeat in the midterm elections. Andrew Kohut's survey for the respected Pew Research Center last month found Democrats far more motivated to vote this year than Republicans. The Democrats held a 16-point advantage over the GOP on the question Kohut uses to gauge the level of interest in voting, exactly the reverse of the situation in 1994, the year the Republicans took over Congress. [..]


0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 11:25 am
And in the next story, there's enough truthspeaking, backtracking and resulting incoherence that we're positively getting a meltdown vibe:

Quote:
GOP candidate says criticism was a joke

Wed Jul 26

Republican Senate candidate Michael Steele on Wednesday called President Bush his "homeboy," reversed course on having the president campaign for him and said he was joking when he described his Republican affiliation as a scarlet letter.

The Maryland lieutenant governor, under fire for his comments, told WBAL radio that his remarks were supposed to be off the record with a handful of reporters. Instead, Steele's campaign confirmed Tuesday that he was the unnamed Senate candidate who had assailed the Bush administration and Republican-controlled Congress in a story in The Washington Post.

"I've been quoted as calling the president my homeboy, you know. And that's how I feel. ... It's a term of affection and respect for his leadership of our country in a difficult time," Steele, who is black, said in the radio interview.

The Post quoted the unnamed candidate as saying the GOP-controlled Congress should "just shut up and get something done," that the Iraq war "didn't work" and "we didn't prepare for the peace," that the response to Hurricane Katrina was "a monumental failure of government," and that "there's a palpable frustration right now in the country."

Steele also said he probably wouldn't want Bush campaigning for him in Maryland and that he considers his party affiliation a scarlet letter. The White House said Wednesday that Bush still is backing Steele in his Senate race.

Steele said Wednesday: "If the president wanted to come and help me in Maryland, he is more than welcome, because I'm not going to turn my back on a friend. I'm not gonna do that." [..]

"We want to be very, very clear that I'm not trying to 'dis' the president. I'm not trying to distance myself from the president. I'm trying to show those lines where, you know what, I have a different perspective," he said.

Asked about the scarlet letter remark, Steele said: "So I was making a joke about the fact that in this political climate, in Maryland, being a Republican is like wearing a scarlet letter. That's all it is."

At the White House, Bush spokesman Tony Snow said the president understands what politics is about, "and he wants Michael Steele to be elected as senator."

Snow declined to say how the president responded when told what Steele had said. "I could, but I won't," Snow said. But he remarked dryly, "I think the comments have come to his attention."

Steele also told the listeners of "The Chip Franklin Show" that he made positive comments about Bush during the meeting that weren't reported [and that] his independence makes him best suited for the job.

"The president doesn't want a sycophant in the United States Senate. He wants an honest broker for the people of Maryland. He doesn't want a 'yes' man. He wants someone who's going to be genuine in his approach to solving the problems. And that's me," Steele said.

In Maryland, Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich said Wednesday that Steele's independent streak makes him a good candidate.

"He speaks his mind. He's always going to speak his mind, which is why we have such a strong friendship," said Ehrlich, who faces a tough re-election this November. He added, "He's running a great campaign."

Asked whether he agreed with Steele, Ehrlich said, "I'm not going to get into any of that." [..]
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 12:20 pm
nimh wrote:
Anecdotal evidence of original Republicans being turned off by today's Bush Republicans:

Makes sense. Incidentally, the author of my current sig line is one of those `original Republicans'. It comes from a recent interview Friedman had with the Wall Street Journal. The article is sonly, but I'll see if a free version has surfaced somewhere....

Here you go.
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 12:47 pm
I am very much afraid that the noted Socialist Professor Nimmh( who, being a professer, should know that anecdotal evidence is the weakest kind of evidence, presents a left wing screed by the king of the left wingers, David Broder, which purports to show a meltdown amongst the Republicans.

I respectfully suggest that Professer Nimhh knows virtually NOTHING about Politics in the USA. He must be confusing our elections with the chaos in the Socialistic Hungary.

Here is what professer Mimh does not know:

l. Broder and his kind, the secularist far left Socialists, will continue to grind out wish fullfillment articles until the election in November.

2. If the Left wing does not win more than five Senate Seats they are absolutely done for until November 2008 and will be able to do nothing except obstruct.

3. Professer Nimh does not know that the following are now the leads held by Republican Senators in key states according to Rassmussen Poll Numbers.

Source- Rasmussen reports

Senator DeWine-Ohio--- 46-39

Senator Allen-Virginia----Ahead by 11 points

The African-American candidate in Tennessee( Ford) is trailing by 12 points.


If you need some pointers on understanding American Politics, Professor Nimmh, I will be happy to assist you. If not, you may go back to the analysis of the Hungarian quasi Communist chaos.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 12:55 pm
BernardR wrote:
3. Professer Nimh does not know that the following are now the leads held by Republican Senators in key states according to Rassmussen Poll Numbers.

Source- Rasmussen reports

Senator DeWine-Ohio--- 46-39

Senator Allen-Virginia----Ahead by 11 points [..]

If you need some pointers on understanding American Politics, Professor Nimmh, I will be happy to assist you. If not, you may go back to the analysis of the Hungarian quasi Communist chaos.

Ah - actually - I was pondering numbers on a related subject, just when you were typing. I posted just two minutes before you, imagine!

Instead of from Rasmussen though, they were from Survey USA.

Let me quote myself from another thread:

nimh wrote:
Well, heres an interesting list:

Obama, Snowe and Conrad Are Top U.S. Senators

Here, I've beautified it so that its easier to see how the Democrats and Republicans rank, and where the could-be Presidential candidates for '08 stand:

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/2523/senatorsjuly2006ux6.gif

So:

- of the 10 Senators most approved of by their constituents, 7 are Democrats, and only 3 Republicans -- and of those three, two are what conservatives like to call RINO's, Republicans In Name Only.

- of the 10 Senators least approved of by their constituents, 7 are Republicans, and only 3 Democrats.

- in fact, of the bottom-ranking 25 Senators, just 8 are Democrats, and 17 are Republicans.

George Allen, John Kerry and Bill Frist, all mentioned as Presidential hopefuls, are each less popular among their own constituents than the average US Senator.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 01:20 pm
Wonderful find, nimh! And thanks for the beautification.

Wouldn't ya just love to know what all landed on Steele?
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jul, 2006 11:56 pm
Well, Professer Nimh. It is clear that you iknow nothing about the US and how it really operates. Polls mean very little. I am surprised that you would think that a poll of 600 People would elict anything near the truth about each Senator.

I will be specific.

l.No one, excpet a very brave person, because of the guilt that has been built into millions of Americans by left wing radical professors left over from the hippie generation, would dare to say anything bad about Barack Obima. If you don;t know this, you know NOTHING about American Poltics.

2. I will be on these threads when the Republicans maintain control of the US Senate in November 2006. Then you may take the polls and utilize them in the ubiquitous out houses in the moth eaten coutnry of Hungary.

3. Only someone who is mathematically challenged would think that a poll which has 600 respondents( AND I NOTE THAT YOU DID NOT PRESENT THE QUESTIONS THAT WERE ASKED OR THE WORDINGS OF THOSE QUESTIONS WHICH, AS EVERYONE BUT CRETINS KNOW, ARE CRITICAL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE POLL PRESENTED) can really reflect the truth about the Senators.

4. You are apparently ignorant of the fact that there are many people who will not answer a pollster. I know( and will search for data backing this up) that elderly people especially will refuse to be polled. This, of course, gives a taint to poll presented.

Because you are ignorant about American Politics(This is not the crypto-Communist Hungary, you know) you are unawre of the DISLAIMERS GIVEN BY YOUR POLLSTERS --SURVEY USA-

Note:

other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ.


I would suggest that you read more carefully before you present such a piece of dreck. The least an honest reseracher would have done would have been to list the disclaimers.

But, you, Sir, Mr. Nimh, did not do so.
Why not? Don't they teach that in the Hungarian Schools?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Jul, 2006 06:12 am
BernardR wrote:
Polls mean very little.

If polls mean very little, why were you quoting them so proudly even right above my post?

Or are you one of those who consider polls significant if they are favourable for their side, but meaningless if they're not?

BernardR wrote:
I am surprised that you would think that a poll of 600 People would elict anything near the truth about each Senator.

Note - that's 600 adult residents of each of the country's 50 states - a total of 30,000 respondents.

BernardR wrote:
l.No one, excpet a very brave person, because of the guilt that has been built into millions of Americans by left wing radical professors left over from the hippie generation, would dare to say anything bad about Barack Obima. If you don;t know this, you know NOTHING about American Poltics.

You already proposed the "they wont say anything bad about a black politician" argument in the Obama thread, and I replied here. Two words: Condoleezza Rice. Doesnt get anywhere near the approval rates of Obama. So those splendid rates are not due merely to race.

BernardR wrote:
3. Only someone who is mathematically challenged would think that a poll which has 600 respondents( AND I NOTE THAT YOU DID NOT PRESENT THE QUESTIONS THAT WERE ASKED OR THE WORDINGS OF THOSE QUESTIONS WHICH, AS EVERYONE BUT CRETINS KNOW, ARE CRITICAL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE POLL PRESENTED) can really reflect the truth about the Senators.

Note, again - 600 per state - 30,000 in total.

As for the wording of the question, you can read it in the link I provided in my very post. This one:

nimh wrote:
Well, heres an interesting list:

Obama, Snowe and Conrad Are Top U.S. Senators

Not that the wording is especially striking. It is as follows:

"Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of your U.S. senator?"

Now how does this wording affect your assessment of the poll presented?

BernardR wrote:
4. You are apparently ignorant of the fact that there are many people who will not answer a pollster. I know( and will search for data backing this up) that elderly people especially will refuse to be polled. This, of course, gives a taint to poll presented.

And younger people are more likely to rely exclusively on cellphones, and can thus not be reached by pollsters, yes.

The thing is - is there any reason to think that the people whom the pollsters couldnt reach lean significantly to one political direction? If that were the case, polls would have turned out to be grossly wrong all the time; that, however, does not seem to be the case.

For example, here's a list of the final polls and vote projections that pollsters published on the 2004 US Presidential elections. The average of these 17 polls had Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48%. In actuality, Bush got 51% and Kerry 48%. Not bad, I'd say - on average they had Kerry's score pegged 100% right, and on Bush they were just 2% off on a total of 51%.

Even the pollsters who were off-track the very worst of those 17 had Bush's score within 4% of what he actually got, and Kerry's within 2% of what he actually got. Apply a 2% or 4% error on any of the numbers above about how the Senators are appraised, and pretty much nothing changes in the overall picture.

More relevantly still, when assessing this Survey USA poll, is what Kelticwizard once noted regarding the pollster's track record in the 2004 elections. Back then, "Survey USA .. showed Republican Senate candidates finishing an average of 1.5% better than they did." No reason, thus, to think that this time, somehow, Survey USA's numbers would be ferociously slanted in the Democrats' favour.

BernardR wrote:
Because you are ignorant about American Politics(This is not the crypto-Communist Hungary, you know) you are unawre of the DISLAIMERS GIVEN BY YOUR POLLSTERS --SURVEY USA-

Note:

other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

Pretty much the same disclaimer would pertain to any poll - including the one you had just boldly quoted as evidence for your argument yourself. And yet, again, polls apparently succeed to, in general, not be off too wildly. Or, in the case of Survey USA polling on Senators, to be off only slightly - in the Republicans' favour.

BernardR wrote:
Why not? Don't they teach that in the Hungarian Schools?

I have spent very little time in Hungarian schools - just about five months, in fact.
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jul, 2006 03:15 am
Mr. Nimh -sir_ I think you are egregiously mistaken.

When you state that there were 30,000 responses to the poll, you are overlooking the fact that only 600 answered the questions about THEIR SENATOR. There were NOT 30,000 responses with regard to Barrack Obama.

But, this is just speculation. Let us agree to look for more solid evidence.

I propose, Sir, that a search be made for the poll approval numbers for Representative Ford who is running for the seat to be vacated by Senator Frist in Tennessee. Then, after the election in November, we will examine the total votes.

I confidently predict that Ford-An African American--will get a good deal more votes in an approval poll than he will get in the election for reasons I have already laid out.

Are you agreeable to this, Mr. Nimh?
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jul, 2006 05:49 am
Mr Nimh, sir - I think Mr Bernard is egregiously mistaken. I think you have probabably forgotten more about American politics than Mr Bernard massagatto-stilted-phoney-rhetoric will ever know.

And it is one thing to be from a "moth-eaten country", but entirely another to have a moth-eaten brain, like Mr Bernard massagatto-beat-a-dead-horse-so-long-its-not-even-good-for-glue.
0 Replies
 
Amigo
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jul, 2006 06:45 am
BernardR Laughing Laughing Laughing

It's a total failure. The Republicans had total control to prove there ideals, policies and themselves.
And they proved a FAILURE the whole lot. Laughing Laughing Laughing

I remember you said all that matters is winning [the vote]. But I guess it matters what you do after you win to.

I laugh at your failure. You and your republicans are an American an world wide spectacle .

Some right wingers iv'e been arguing with since 2003 can't even face me. And the one who used to be in the middle call me for political advice.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jul, 2006 07:06 am
The funny thing is, I have been having problems with moths here, recently, or at least I think thats what they are... "recently" as in pretty much since Bernard started off on his moth-eaten thing... do you think he is secretly behind it? ;-)
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jul, 2006 07:12 am
nimh wrote:
The funny thing is, I have been having problems with moths here, recently, or at least I think thats what they are... "recently" as in pretty much since Bernard started off on his moth-eaten thing... do you think he is secretly behind it? ;-)


You mean he is a witch, and has cursed you?


Nah...just get some camphor wood balls....
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 12:18 am
Mr. Nimh- Is that what you mean by civilized and productive discourse?

If you go to the thread, following the European Union , you will find a great deal of material to show that you, sir, are the one who began the insults in a manner which is most unbecoming to one who asserts he is trained in History.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 12:30 am
BernardR, why can you handle your dispute with nimh, the Hungarians, the Dutch, the bad Europens etc etc on an own thread instead spamming up dozens over the board with your posts?
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 12:41 am
nimh wrote:
The funny thing is, I have been having problems with moths here, recently, or at least I think thats what they are... "recently" as in pretty much since Bernard started off on his moth-eaten thing... do you think he is secretly behind it? ;-)


I learned yesterday from the newspaper that one way to get rid of moths is to put the garments into plastic bags and put them in the freezer overnight. This will kill the grubs which cause the damage.

You're welcome.
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 01:20 am
I would appreciate it very much, Mr. Nimh, if you would respond to my post. I pointed out that the central feature of your presentation is in error.

You noted that there were 30,000 responses to the poll. Indeed, there were but ONLY 600 for each Senator. It is highly doubtful, (given the disclaimers published by Survey USA )that a poll of 600 people comprising about one one hundreth of one percent of the roughly four Million voters in Illinois during the last Senatorial contest is in any way significant.

I respectfully suggest that you review your data.

Thank you sir!!!







Mr. Nimh -sir_ I think you are egregiously mistaken.

When you state that there were 30,000 responses to the poll, you are overlooking the fact that only 600 answered the questions about THEIR SENATOR. There were NOT 30,000 responses with regard to Barrack Obama.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 01:18 pm
BernardR wrote:
I pointed out that the central feature of your presentation is in error.

You noted that there were 30,000 responses to the poll. Indeed, there were but ONLY 600 for each Senator.[..]

Mr. Nimh -sir_ I think you are egregiously mistaken.

I'm afraid you must have misread me, Bernard. Let's recap:

Regarding the Survey USA poll on the job approval of Senators, you wrote:

    [color=darkred]Polls mean very little. I am surprised that you would think that a poll of 600 People would elict anything near the truth about each Senator.[/color]
True, a poll of just 600 people nationwide would hardly be able to tell the truth about each of the 50 Senators. But then that wasnt what we had here, so I clarified:

    [color=darkblue]Note - that's 600 adult residents of each of the country's 50 states - a total of 30,000 respondents. [..] 600 [i]per state [/i]- 30,000 in total.[/color]
You answered:

    [color=darkred]When you state that there were 30,000 responses to the poll, you are overlooking the fact that only 600 answered the questions about THEIR SENATOR. There were NOT 30,000 responses with regard to Barrack Obama.[/color]
This is where you must have misread me, because I did not "overlook the fact that only 600 answered the questions about THEIR SENATOR"; in fact, I had just pointed out exactly that ("600 per state").

BernardR wrote:
It is highly doubtful, (given the disclaimers published by Survey USA )that a poll of 600 people comprising about one one hundreth of one percent of the roughly four Million voters in Illinois during the last Senatorial contest is in any way significant.

600 is on the small side for a polling sample, but hardly incredibly so. Most national polls sample around 1,000 respondents - not all that more - and that when they have to encompass a far wider diversity of population groups than a state-wide poll.

The sample of 600 means the poll had a margin of error of 3.8 to 4.1 percent -- as noted by Survey USA, and in the post I quoted it in. A margin of error like that is on the large side, but hardly changes anything about Obama's approval rating, for example (68%, 72% or 76% job approval - any which way it remains impressive).
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 03:51 pm
Hehheh ... some random weirdness Mr. Green

Quote:
So how do you really feel, Brownie?

The September issue of Playboy -- hey, we only read the press releases about the articles -- features an interview with former FEMA chief Michael Brown, who says that the federal government is "less prepared" for a natural disaster than it was before Hurricane Katrina. Among the snarky highlights:

Brown on "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job": "That didn't mean anything to me. It's typical of the president. He's a cheerleader. You know what that comment did? How many people in the world do you think have ever called me 'Brownie'? His name's George W. Bush. When he used that nickname, a lot of people in the media went, 'Is he an insider?' Do they know each other? What's the deal here?' That's when Time started researching my resume and came up with the totally false story about my having inflated it."

Brown on Mississippi Rep. Gene Taylor: "That congressman, that little twerp, said I didn't understand suffering. He said I didn't understand the death and suffering that was going on. As I told him, I've seen death and suffering. I've smelled death. I smelled death in the tsunami. I know what it's like to lose close friends in disasters ... For that little twerp to claim I didn't understand death and suffering -- he can just bite me, for all I care."

Brown on Bush's claim that nobody "anticipated the breach of the levees": "He doesn't have an incredible command of the English language. Maybe he meant 'None of us really wanted this to happen.' My friends in the Republican Party -- the bullies -- jumped all over Clinton about parsing words. Now the president was parsing words. 'Are the levees going to break?' 'Are they going to top?' Who cares? We are going to have flooding in New Orleans, and we knew New Orleans was a fishbowl."
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jul, 2006 03:59 pm
I respectfully disagree, Mr. Nimh. Since there were over 4,000,000 votes in the last Senatorial Election---as I have already pointed out 600 is less than one hundredth of one percent of the voting public AND in the disclaimer written by Survey USA, they point out that there might even be distortions in the data caused by non-respondents. There is a great deal of concern in the polling community about non-respondents. I am sure that you know that.

But, as I have said so often( you seem to ignore my statement and I can only surmise that it would ruin your these by taking it into account--

Let us look at the polling data for Representative Ford who is running for the Senate in Tennessee. Then, after the election, we can see how many people voted for him.
I hold that the polls for him( for reasons which I have already described several times) will show a substantially higher level of support than the support he will actually receive in the voting booths.

But, then, we won't be able to tell that until November's elections are over, will we?

I won't forget. Ihope that you don't!!! But, now, let us look at some EVIDENCE. Please be so good as to read the article below prepared by the very highly respected Pew Polling group. You will find that my suggestion( that people who will vote against an African-American will not be highly represented in polls since they often refuse to participate in such polls.( ACCORDING TO ACTUAL PAST ELECTION FIGURES WHERE AFRICAN-AMERICANS HAVE PARTICIPATED. SEE CHART)
0 Replies
 
 

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