BernardR wrote:Polls mean very little.
If polls mean very little, why were you
quoting them so proudly even right above my post?
Or are you one of those who consider polls significant if they are favourable for their side, but meaningless if they're not?
BernardR wrote:I am surprised that you would think that a poll of 600 People would elict anything near the truth about each Senator.
Note - that's 600 adult residents of
each of the country's 50 states - a total of 30,000 respondents.
BernardR wrote:l.No one, excpet a very brave person, because of the guilt that has been built into millions of Americans by left wing radical professors left over from the hippie generation, would dare to say anything bad about Barack Obima. If you don;t know this, you know NOTHING about American Poltics.
You already proposed the "they wont say anything bad about a black politician" argument in the Obama thread, and I replied
here. Two words: Condoleezza Rice. Doesnt get anywhere near the approval rates of Obama. So those splendid rates are not due merely to race.
BernardR wrote:3. Only someone who is mathematically challenged would think that a poll which has 600 respondents( AND I NOTE THAT YOU DID NOT PRESENT THE QUESTIONS THAT WERE ASKED OR THE WORDINGS OF THOSE QUESTIONS WHICH, AS EVERYONE BUT CRETINS KNOW, ARE CRITICAL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE POLL PRESENTED) can really reflect the truth about the Senators.
Note, again - 600
per state - 30,000 in total.
As for the wording of the question, you can read it in the link I provided in my very post. This one:
Not that the wording is especially striking. It is as follows:
"Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of your U.S. senator?"
Now how does this wording affect your assessment of the poll presented?
BernardR wrote:4. You are apparently ignorant of the fact that there are many people who will not answer a pollster. I know( and will search for data backing this up) that elderly people especially will refuse to be polled. This, of course, gives a taint to poll presented.
And younger people are more likely to rely exclusively on cellphones, and can thus not be reached by pollsters, yes.
The thing is - is there any reason to think that the people whom the pollsters couldnt reach lean significantly to one political direction? If that were the case, polls would have turned out to be grossly wrong all the time; that, however, does not seem to be the case.
For example,
here's a list of the final polls and vote projections that pollsters published on the 2004 US Presidential elections. The average of these 17 polls had Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48%. In actuality, Bush got 51% and Kerry 48%. Not bad, I'd say - on average they had Kerry's score pegged 100% right, and on Bush they were just 2% off on a total of 51%.
Even the pollsters who were off-track
the very worst of those 17 had Bush's score within 4% of what he actually got, and Kerry's within 2% of what he actually got. Apply a 2% or 4% error on any of the numbers above about how the Senators are appraised, and pretty much nothing changes in the overall picture.
More relevantly still, when assessing this Survey USA poll, is what
Kelticwizard once noted regarding the pollster's track record in the 2004 elections. Back then, "Survey USA .. showed Republican Senate candidates finishing an average of 1.5% better than they did." No reason, thus, to think that
this time, somehow, Survey USA's numbers would be ferociously slanted in the
Democrats' favour.
BernardR wrote:Because you are ignorant about American Politics(This is not the crypto-Communist Hungary, you know) you are unawre of the DISLAIMERS GIVEN BY YOUR POLLSTERS --SURVEY USA-
Note:
other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.
Pretty much the same disclaimer would pertain to any poll - including the one you had just boldly quoted as evidence for your argument yourself. And yet, again, polls apparently succeed to, in general, not be off too wildly. Or, in the case of Survey USA polling on Senators, to be off only slightly - in the Republicans' favour.
BernardR wrote:Why not? Don't they teach that in the Hungarian Schools?
I have spent very little time in Hungarian schools - just about five months, in fact.