The Democrats Gloat Thread

I read Obama's speech and it was quite clever. I just hope he doesn't revert to the Cocaine use which he admitted in his autobiography.

This is a cheap shot. I haven't read the book, but I did a little researching and from all accounts, the book, "Dreams From My Father" is a rich story filled with struggles he faced as a child born from a African father and an American white mother.



http://www.everything2.com/index.pl?node=Dreams%20From%20My%20Father

Why would you even bring that up? It's about the only negative thing one could say about Obama (having since his youthful use of drugs and dalliance in gangs and violence, become lawyer, editor of the Harvard Law Review and one of only 5 Blacks ever to serve in the Senate), and you find it necessary to remind everyone of.

I think, it's more than just positive if someone doesn't hide his past ans tells about his yout (including their "sins") openly.

Exactly - and he has been very upfront about his messups in the past. More open than a lot of major players in politics these days...

Obviously so we can annoy nimh. :wink:

snood, Some people on a2k have perfect lives and pasts that none can dispute. They also walk on water. Those who have nothing better than to criticize somebody for having made mistakes as a youth, but have been successful beyond any average joe under similar circumstances can't be taken too seriously.

I wish the pollsters would ask the questions which seems most relevant

"Do you agree that Mr Bush lied to the people so as to be able to take his country into an illegal war?"
"Do you believe that in this regard Congress has been duped?"
"Is the outcome of the invasion of Iraq beneficial for a) Iraq b) USA?"
"Is the western world safer, or the Middle East more stable, as a result of the invasion of Iraq?"
"Is the international standing of the USA a) higher, or b) lower, as a result of its actions towards Iraq?"
"Can you think of a better use for the funds which were expended in the invasion of Iraq, and following that invasion?"
"Do you think that respect for the Law, the laws on which our western civilisation is based, has been increased or reduced when ordinary people see attitudes of this Administration in this regard?"

I'd like to see these question polled.

Yes, he wowed them. There is no doubt that Obama is a rising star. Talk of a 2008 bid for the Presidency is fruitless as he is way too green and hasn't built his power base within the party. There is no doubt that millions of Americans would not vote for any black candidate for President but these same voters would not vote for any Democratic candidate in huge numbers. The other side of the coin is that blacks would come out in droves to vote for a black candidate. When African-Americans show up at the polls, the Dems win, at least when they are allowed to vote and THEIR votes get counted!

They are - let's go through them.



"Do you think the Bush Administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, or not?"
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 10-12, 2006

51% Yes, Misled
46% No, Did Not
3% Unsure


Phrased that way the questions is suggestive/biased. Practically everyone can think of a better use of funds than any single one suggested in a poll, since most people have some 'hobby horse' or other of their own.

The more fair/relevant question is: do you think the use of funds expended in the invasion of Iraq was worth it / justified?

"When it comes to the war in Iraq, do you think that removing Saddam Hussein from power was or was not worth the number of U.S. military casualties and the financial cost of the war?"
March 10-13 2006, NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R).

39% Worth It
51% Not Worth It
10% Depends (vol.) / Unsure

But do also compare these two results..:

"Do you think the result of the war with Iraq was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not?"
CBS News Poll. March 9-12, 2006.

25% Worth It
70% Not Worth It
5% Unsure

"Do you think removing Saddam Hussein from power was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not?"
CBS News Poll. March 9-12, 2006.

40% Worth It
51% Not Worth It
9% Unsure

Note the difference in wording between those two questions - each asked to half the respondents of this CBS poll - and the consequent difference in the result! Both questions yielded a majority for 'not worth it', but the majority was much smaller when "removing Saddam Hussein from power" was included and put at the front of the question. The second question gets results almost equal to that of the NBC poll, which also mentions Saddam in the question, and furthermore uses "the number of U.S. military casualties" rather than the more graphic "the loss of American life". Wording can easily be tuned to result in different proportions of answers.


These are about the US, rather than the western world, being safer:

"As a result of the United States' military action against Iraq, do you think the United States is more safe from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or hasn't it made any difference?"
CBS News Poll. March 9-12, 2006.

30% More Safe
23% Less Safe
44% No Difference
3% Unsure

"Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States?"
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. March 2-5, 2006.

50% Has
48% Has Not
2% Unsure


This is all about Iraq, specifically, rather than the Middle East - but one does kind of imply the other..

"In your opinion, is Iraq much better off, somewhat better off, somewhat worse off, or much worse off than before the U.S. and British invasion?" CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 10-12, 2006

19% Much Better
48% Somewhat Better
18% Somewhat Worse
12% Much Worse
3% Same (vol.)/Unsure

"Which do you think is more likely to happen in Iraq? The situation will turn into chaos and civil war. OR, The Iraqi people will be able to establish a stable government."
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 10-12, 2006

55% Chaos and Civil War
40% Stable Government
5% Unsure

"Would you say there is a civil war going on in Iraq among different groups of Iraqis right now, or not?"
CBS News Poll. March 9-12, 2006.

71% Is
21% Is Not
8% Unsure

"Which of these do you think is most likely? (1) Iraq will become a stable democracy in the next year or two. (2) Iraq will become a stable democracy, but it will take longer than a year or two. Or, (3) Iraq will probably never become a stable democracy."
CBS News Poll. March 9-12, 2006.

5% Next Year Or Two
38% Longer
54% Never
3% Unsure

Here's another study in the impact of how you phrase the question. Below are two questions that were asked, in the same poll, to half of the respondents each - resulting in a big difference in answers (unless, that is, a significant part of the public believes that there will be both a civil war and a stable, democratic government, which is possible, of course.)

"How likely is it that a stable, democratic government will be established in Iraq? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?"
Associated Press/Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. March 6-8, 2006

48% Likely
49% Not Likely
3% Unsure

"How likely is it that civil war will break out in Iraq? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?"
Associated Press/Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. March 6-8, 2006

77% Likely
17% Not Likely
1% Civil War Already (vol.)
4% Unsure

"Just your best guess: Do you think it is likely or unlikely that there will be a major civil war involving ethnic or religious groups in Iraq in the next year?"
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 28-March 1, 2006

73% Likely
20% Unlikely
2% Already Occurring (vol.)
5% Unsure

"Just your best guess: Do you think each of the following is likely or unlikely to happen in Iraq in the next few years? How about [see below]?"
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 16-18, 2005.

(NOTE: already three months old)

"Iraq will be able to prevent terrorists from using the country as a base of operations for planning attacks against the United States"

35% Likely
63% Unlikely
2% Unsure


This is not quite equivalent, but (also because the change over time) reflective enough:

Thanks for collecting those, interesting.

Nice research, nimh. Brandon would be proud!

Brandon will

1) Not understand the poll
2) Take issue with your source
3) Not understand the poll
4) Call it all leftist propaganda
5) Not understand the poll
6) Call the poll unAmerican
7) Not understand the poll
8) Call the poll unpatriotic
9) Not understand the poll

10) All the Above

Take your pick!!


Anon

The polls are rigged! They ask a cross-section of people in various demographics of high and low income and obviously that will always come out as a lie.

The Burning Bush is now down to burned out twigs.

President Putsch is holding us all hostage to his screwed up, folksy idealism and perpetuating a war that is not only unpopular, it's unpopular because it was wrong.

Thank you nimh, you're a good 'un.

That is far from obvious to me. Many polls do indeed use stratified samples as a way of gaining more accurate or representative sampling than a random sample of the same size migh permiot. The problem is it is not possible to analyze or prove any precise improvement in the accuracy of the resulting estimate. Most of the "lies" associated with polls have to do either with bias built in to the phrasing of questions or the sequence in which they were offered and the sampling techniques used. However the distortion resulting from the loose or even deliberately misleading interpretation of them is just as great.



That is your opinion, but it is not indicated in the poll results listed above.

Also your opinion. The historical record for contemporary popular opinion does not correlate well with the judgements of history.

Somebody, please show those polls to ican too! He still thinks the best strategy for Iraq is Bush's policies.

Oh, no, I had forgotten about GeorgeOB's wise platitudes (I know, that's an oxymoron). Everyone in denial can follow the first step:

I am helpless over my blind conservatism and my view of politics has become unmanageable.

Unfortunately the appropriate response to an obviously self-contradictory or incorrect assertion is usually a platitude. The truth is often monotonous and simple when compared to fantasy.