JustWonders wrote:nimh - I could just as easily see your hypothetical as Joe Smith being thoroughly disgusted with both parties, but realizing that Bush is headed in the right direction on immigration and other issues important to the average voter, realizing the economy continues to show strong growth despite the natural disasters, and don't forget if Mr. Smith is religious, he'll most likely identify more with conservative "values".
I'm sure you can easily "see" him thinking that.
But we were contesting what the findings of these polls we've been referencing mean. And the difference is that my little anecdote refers point by point to their actual findings - and yours is point by point refuted by them.
Ie, you can
see him
"realizing that Bush is headed in the right direction on immigration and other issues important to the average voter".
Well, neither poll says anything about immigration (except that only 3% considers it the number 1 problem). But on whether Bush is headed in the right direction the polls are quite clear about what Joe Average thinks: no. 55% disapproves of the way George W. Bush is handling his job, and for the first time ever a majority disagrees that George W. Bush "has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have".
As for immigration, the most recent poll on that issue is from
October 3-5, and it finds that all of 21% (!) approves "of the way George W. Bush is handling the issue of immigration"; a staggering 53% disapproves.
You can see Joe Average
"realizing [that] the economy continues to show strong growth". (Joe Smith was the guy he was (not) voting for ;-))
Again, the two polls we've been quoting give only circumstantial evidence, but all of it contradicts what you see Joe Average as thinking.
Eg, in the USAToday poll, 50% think the Democrats would do a better job of dealing with the economy; only 38% think its the Republicans. In the Battleground one, the Dems enjoy 7% and 14% leads on "keeping America prosperous" and "holding down federal spending".
But, for a direct answer we got to look at the other most recent polls. Two weeks ago, the Gallup poll asked respondents, "How would you rate economic conditions in this country today?". 28% said excellent or good; 72% said "only fair" or "poor". Moreover, asked whether they thought "that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?", only 24% said better, and 68% said worse.
Finally, you remind me that
"if Mr. Smith is religious, he'll most likely identify more with conservative values". Good point - in America, Joe Average would be religious.
Problem is, the polls again don't substantiate your speculation about what Mr. Smith feels. One of the most surprising things in them is, after all, that the Republican lead on values is neutralised for now.
In the Battleground poll, respondents were equally split about who shared their values more, the Democrats or GOP (46% to 45%). In the USA Today poll, 57% of respondents said the Republican Party represented their values very well or moderately well; and 58% said the same about the Democratic Party.
Amazingly, even on the question who more "shares your attitudes about the role of religion in politics", the Republican and Democratic Parties score equally well (53%).
In short, in my improvised anecdoe I tried to illustrate what Joe Average is actually thinking according to the polls - the only thing we've got to go on re: his current state of mind. In yours, you were just making up what you think Joe Average
should be thinking. That's all well and fine - everyone's entitled to their visions - but remember that personal speculations make for little ground to make appeals to authority on about what "most people in this country" think...
Then again, dont mind me, I'm in the "reality-based community", an' all... :wink:
