You are not the political wonk, my dude.
Warren / Sanders may not happen, but if one of them is a shoe-in for the nod, they’d be stupid not to coalesce because Bernie has a great deal of poor, college student, and black support where Warren has virtually none. Warren is appealing to hillaryists. Two quite different groups.
They would destroy Trump and all comers, but if Warren wins the nod, the DNC will not allow her to choose Bern, nor would a sizable chunk vote for Liz at the top of the ticket.
No offense but I'm not sure you would recognize a "political wonk" if he or she ran you down. Your idea of one seems to be someone astute enough to recognize that Bernie Sanders can leap tall buildings in a single bound.
Ideological fervor is not the same as political acumen. You have had a quixotic view of Sanders since 2016 and I feel sure you still think he would have beaten Trump if the DNC hadn't robbed him of his (somehow) rightful place at the top of the 2016 ticket.
likely desirous of winning over Clintonistas, and she may eventually do so, but as of this point in time, the only ones she may be able to count on are those whose sole reason for supporting HRC was that she was a woman running to be our first female president.
Warren is a good bit more Establishment than Sanders (not too difficult when he isn't even a member of the party whose nomination he seeks
) but Biden is far more so
than her. Virtually every Democratic grandee and former Clintonista poobah, who appears on TV or writes ob-eds in the Establishment liberal press supports Biden. That support may fade if Joe can't clear the cobwebs from his aged brain, but there's no guarantee that it will move to Warren. If you listen to these folks you will, of course, hear them say that Warren is a wonderful person, but you will also hear them repeatedly remark that she may be too far left for America. They are, I believe, actively seeking an alternative moderate because there is a real concern that Uncle Joe's best day was long ago when he confronted Corn Pop
the Bad Due
with pomade in his hair and a straight razor in his hand.
Poor Joe. He isn't even aware that the people who may have actually listened to that fantastic story without splitting their sides laughing are old enough or sophisticated enough to recognize Mr. Pop
as a stereotype of black thugs in the '50s and early '60s.
The straight razor reference was priceless. He might as well have added that the Bad Dude
was not only on the brink of introducing pomade into the community pool but also grease from the fried chicken he held in his hand at the time. Stereotypes tend to have tenuous origins in less generalized fact, but they are near-instantaneous triggers
in the 21st Century.
There probably was a local street thug who called himself Corn Pop
(no one could make that up and one of Joe's friends in the NAACP has confirmed Corn Pop's
existence by, presumably, checking the Bad Dude Registry
for that place and time.) and given the time of the alleged standoff, he may very well have worn pomade in his hair. (I'm sure you have familiarity, if not recollection, of Little Richard and Chuck Berry.) He may have even been a black bully who carried a rusty straight razor, but if Young Joe Biden backed him and
his friends down with a 6' foot length of chain some tough words and an apology (For referring to him as "Esther Williams!"
) then the urban menace, Corn Pop had to have been no more than 10 years of age with a old cracked razor his father had thrown in the trash.
Notwithstanding how entertaining I find Uncle Joe to be, I believe more than a few of his Establishment supporters are getting worried. I keep hearing them mention Mayor Pete
(Almost as cute as Corn Pop
) more and more and am wondering if he has been approached by the Establishment to begin tacking more to the center. So far it doesn't seem like this has happened or, if it has, that Petey is willing to forgo his current firm grasp on far left cliches and platitudes, but he did scold Beto and if you see him tone down the Climate Change hysteria, it may signal that he's been chosen...or wants to be.
In any case, the Dem Establishment is never going to embrace Bernie. If he manages to win the nomination, they will most likely support him because they'll figure they might as well try an ingratiate themselves so they can return to feeding from the public trough under a Sanders Administration, but these are true Party Loyalists
who I firmly believe resent Sanders trying to glom a ride on their train. In addition, if he was screwed in 2016, many of them were turning the driver. It has nothing to do with anti-Semitism, but everything to do with paying one's dues to the Party and respecting its Elders
, as well as
they're being rightfully afraid that he will clean house if he takes over.
So Sanders has virtually no Establishment support and Warren has little. Sanders may have more support among black Democratic voters than Warren (I really don't know), but it's not as if he essentially controls that particular bloc, or any other for that matter. Didn't he just lose the support of a Communist Feminist organization to Warren?
With the exception of some diehard Berners like edgar and perhaps you, most of Sanders' support will turn to Warren if necessary and visa versa. Neither really needs the other to secure the socialist vote.
Sanders needs a minority running mate more than Warren, for obvious reasons, and both would be helped by a #2 who is younger and can be a real attack dog with some skill at it. This leads to the most important consideration: Having come this far and at his age, it seems inconceivable that Bernie would be content (even for ideological reasons) to accept the #2 spot whose job, during the campaign, would largely be to throw the poison darts at Trump so that Warren doesn't run the risk of appearing to be an unpleasant old shrew (Yes, I know this is a sexist consideration, but as political wonks
know, sometimes the candidate has to bend with the popular wind).
And what would the VP job be for Bernie? Warren could easily promise him the moon and then pull the rug out from under him. Presidents really don't like having to compete with their VPs or look, in any way, like they are not running the show...alone. I don't know if there's ever been anything like a true partnership of even near
equals running the show together, but it would be incredibly difficult to maintain in 2020 with the News Media watching and commenting on every little tic and twitch; posied to run a headline about tension between POTUS and the VP.
Warren is hardly a spring-chicken herself and so having to possibly wait 8 years for her time seems problematic. Poor Uncle Joe waited 12 years (only because he really was loyal to Obama) and look how that turned out.
Obviously anything is possible
, but if we see a 2020 race between Trump/Pence and Warren/Sanders (or Sanders/Warren) I absolutely promise that I will announce in an individual thread in this forum that I am not only not a political wonk
, I am a political cretin