Hey Let's Start Guessing!

MANHATTAN BEACH, Calif. — Stacey Abrams said Monday that she is considering running for a Georgia Senate seat in 2020 or governor again in 2022 — and possibly even for president.

Abrams’ drew national attention in her bid to become the first black woman governor in the United States, and the progressive political action committee Democracy for America included her in a presidential poll it opened online last week.

But Abrams has largely circulated under the 2020 radar, even as another failed statewide candidate, Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, draws intense interest from donors and Democratic activists.

Asked if she is considering a presidential campaign, Abrams said, “No … I haven’t thought about It.”

She stopped short of ruling out a campaign, however, saying, “I am open to all options, and it’s too soon after the election to know exactly what I’m going to do.”

Abrams’ more likely trajectory appears to be to challenge Republican Sen. David Perdue in two years or wait for a rematch with Brian Kemp, the Republican who defeated her in November, in four.

“I am thinking about both,” she told POLITICO of the Senate and gubernatorial races from the sidelines of a donor conference here.

“Georgia is my state,” she said. “And the changes I talked about in this campaign remain changes I believe are necessary for our state to continue to progress, to serve the entirety of our state, and that the issues that I raised remain urgent and important.”

Abrams’ remarks followed an address at a conference organized by the progressive donor network Way to Win, which funneled some $22 million to political efforts in the 2018 elections.

Speaking to supporters here, Abrams continued with defiant post-election messaging, railing against what she called voter suppression and a “systemic attempt to narrow the electorate” in Georgia. Ticking off Democrats’ successes in the midterm elections, including increasing turnout and fundraising in Georgia, she declared, “We won.”

“The Deep South is rising again,” Abrams said. “And we will not stop.”

Abrams’ campaign put her in the sights of many top-tier presidential contenders’ early political efforts in the 2020 run-up. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), among other Democrats, all rushed to support Abrams in a state that increasingly appears within the Democratic Party’s reach.

On Monday, Abrams told POLITICO that she, O’Rourke and Andrew Gillum, who narrowly lost his race for governor of Florida, “each, in our way demonstrated that there is a much broader electorate that should be engaged in the national conversation than we’ve seen in previous years.

“Particularly for Georgia, we will be a battleground state, I believe, for the first time in more than 20 years,” she said.

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) is considered one of the top Democratic contenders for the White House in 2020 even among more well-known potential hopefuls, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the most popular Democrat in the potential 2020 primary, with 28 percent of Democratic and independent voters saying they'd most likely vote for him, according to the poll released on Monday.

Biden remains the front-runner even when 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton is included in the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who also ran in 2016, comes in second place at 21 percent.

O'Rourke, who earned a groundswell of national attention in 2018, was ranked third with 7 percent, garnering more support than other frequently touted potential challengers.

The outgoing Democratic congressman lost his bid last month to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by a surprisingly narrow margin in a deep-red state. O'Rourke is now leaving the door open to a White House bid.

"Beto is the kind of fresh face who could shake up the Democratic race," said Mark Penn, co-director of Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. "He starts off by blowing past some well-known names. Biden loses support upon his entry."

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as well as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg - who are all openly considering 2020 campaigns - all polled in the low single-digits.

Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for adult film actress Stormy Daniels, comes in last with 2 percent. Avenatti was recently arrested for alleged domestic abuse, which he has denied.

Still, 18 percent of Democrats and independents polled remain unsure more than a year out from the early primaries and caucuses, while 2 percent say they support a candidate not listed.

When Clinton is factored into the poll, she bumps O'Rourke down to fourth place, though his support grows from 7 percent to 9 percent.

Biden and Sanders - who have positive favorability ratings - remain in first and second respectively in that scenario, but their numbers slightly shrink. Biden then has 25 percent, while Sanders garners 15 percent.

Clinton comes in third place, with 13 percent of support. Fifteen percent of those voters remain undecided, while 4 percent say they'd most likely vote for another candidate.

"Hillary jumping into this race doesn't put her in front but gives a place from which she could grow," Penn said.

Many of her aides have said she won't run for a third White House bid, but Clinton hasn't ruled out the possibility in interviews.

In the poll, 62 percent of voters don't believe Clinton will run in 2020. Her favorability rating is 39-55 percent - similar to President Trump's underwater favorability.

The 2020 Democratic primary is expected to draw a crowded field, but newer names have cropped up in recent weeks, illustrating how the race to challenge Trump remains in flux.

During his Senate campaign, O'Rourke had firmly said he wouldn't mount a presidential run in 2020. But last week, he told reporters that he's no longer ruling it out.

"Amy and I made a decision not to rule anything out," O'Rourke told reporters after a town hall in El Paso, Texas, referring to his wife.

There have been growing calls among Democrats for O'Rourke, who lost to Cruz by less than 3 points in the November midterms, to take on Trump after the Democrats' strong performance in the Senate race.

O'Rourke drew headlines during his Senate run for saying he'd support a vote to impeach Trump in the wake of his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He's also earned high praise from allies and aides to Barack Obama, who compared O'Rourke to the former president. Obama himself recently heaped praise on the Texas Democrat.

"It felt as if he based his statements and his positions on what he believed," Obama told his former adviser David Axelrod for "The Axe Files" podcast on CNN. "And that, you'd like to think, is normally how things work. Sadly it's not."

After the Senate race, O'Rourke received invitations to speak to Democratic supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire, which hold the first-in-the-nation caucuses and primaries respectively.

Meanwhile on the Republican side, Trump is the overwhelming favorite, with 44 percent of voters saying they're likely to vote for him in his 2020 reelection race.

Eight other Republicans are polled as potential primary challengers to Trump, but they only garner low- to mid- single-digits. Sixteen percent are undecided about whom they'd support in the 2020 GOP primary.

Kasich, who ran for president in 2016 and is considering another run against Trump, garnered 6 percent of support, the same number as Sen.-elect Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who was the 2012 GOP presidential nominee.

Only 2 percent of voters say they'd most likely vote for retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who's been an outspoken Trump critic. Flake is also considering a potential primary challenge, but in recent weeks, has poured cold water on a run.

Flake has touted Kasich and Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) as viable primary challengers. In Monday's poll, Sasse comes in last place, with 1 percent of support.

"I do hope that somebody does run in the primary against the president," Flake recently told C-SPAN. "I think Republicans need to be reminded of what conservatism really is, and what it means to be decent."

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll online survey was conducted from Nov. 27 to 28 and surveyed a total of 1,407 registered voters.

For the Democratic primary question when Clinton was factored in, 271 Democratic voters and 188 independent voters were surveyed. When Clinton was left out, the poll surveyed 255 Democrats and 194 independents.

For the GOP primary question, the poll surveyed 437 Republican voters and 382 independents.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard/Harris Poll throughout 2018.

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

I don't see O'Rourke as president.

Beto O’Rourke, weighing whether to mount a 2020 presidential bid, met recently with ­Barack Obama at his post-presidency offices in Washington.

The meeting, which was held Nov. 16 at the former president’s offices in Foggy Bottom, came as former Obama aides have encouraged the Democratic House member to run, seeing him as capable of the same kind of inspirational campaign that caught fire in the 2008 presidential election.

The meeting was the first sign of Obama getting personally involved in conversations with O’Rourke, who, despite his November loss in a U.S. Senate race in Texas, has triggered more recent discussion and speculation than any other candidate in the burgeoning 2020 field.

TMZ, the Hollywood-based entertainment website, is now trailing O’Rourke; he is being swamped by calls from Democratic operatives eager to work for him, and other campaigns-in-the-making are eyeing his moves closely for any signs of his intentions. O’Rourke said at an El Paso town hall last week that he was considering a run, pending discussions with his family.

His meeting with Obama came amid cross-pressures on O’Rourke to forgo a run for president to mount another bid for U.S. Senate, challenging Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) in 2020.

A spokeswoman for Obama declined to comment on the meeting. O’Rourke’s spokesman also declined to comment.

The former president has reportedly met with several potential 2020 candidates, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu (D).

He is in the awkward position of trying to ensure his party wins back the White House, but without weighing in too aggressively in a primary that could consist of his former vice president (Joe Biden), a longtime friend (former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick) and some of his former Cabinet officials (Eric H. Holder Jr., his attorney general, and Julián Castro, his housing secretary).

Obama’s stated mission has been to build a new generation of Democratic leaders, and two weeks ago he said that O’Rourke, who is 46, reminded him of himself. The three-term congressman, he said, was one of the rare politicians who can connect with a wide swath of the electorate in an increasingly siloed country.

“The reason I was able to make a connection with a sizable portion of the country was because people had a sense that I said what I meant,” Obama said in an interview for “The Axe Files,” a podcast hosted by his former top strategist David Axelrod. “What I oftentimes am looking for first and foremost is, do you seem to mean it? Are you in this thing because you have a strong set of convictions that you are willing to risk things for?”

“What I liked most about his race was that it didn’t feel constantly poll-tested,” Obama added of O’Rourke. “It felt as if he based his statements and his positions on what he believed. And that, you’d like to think, is normally how things work. Sadly it’s not.”

O’Rourke last month finished 2.6 percentage points behind Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Even in defeat, however, he was able to build a deep fundraising base, bringing in more money than any other candidate in the nation, and had a knack for creating moments that went viral online.

He vowed repeatedly not to run in 2020 during his Senate campaign but has been reevaluating those plans over the last few weeks. One of the major factors weighing on him is the strain placed on his family. He was away for long stretches during the Senate race, which was particularly hard on his kids.

Some of his closest friends still expect him to run, with one of them putting 60-40 odds on his getting into the race.

O’Rourke has enlisted his longtime aide, David Wysong, to handle the barrage of incoming calls. But he has not made any commitments and has largely ignored requests coming from groups in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire eager to have him visit.

O’Rourke was not among the slate of candidates that Obama endorsed during the midterm elections, but that came in part at O’Rourke’s request.

Obama offered several times to help O’Rourke’s campaign, including to come to Texas for a rally or to record robo-calls offering his endorsement, according to a source close to the O’Rourke campaign. Obama even recorded a video that O’Rourke’s campaign never utilized; it remained a subject of internal debate.

O’Rourke rarely used surrogates during his campaign and did not like the idea of having outside voices tell Texans how to vote. He also hasn’t forgotten his 2012 congressional campaign, when Obama — as well as another former president, Bill Clinton — endorsed his opponent, eight-term Democratic congressman Silvestre Reyes.

“I don’t think we’re interested,” O’Rourke said in October about an Obama endorsement. “I am so grateful to him for his service; he’s going to go down as one of the greatest presidents. And yet, this is on Texas.”

He also referred to the 2012 campaign, in which the top Democrats worked against him.

“Bill Clinton fills up the county coli­seum, and a screaming El Paso Times front-page headline [said] ‘President urges El Paso to stick with Reyes,’ ” he said. “And we won. And what that drove home for me is that someone else’s popularity is not transferrable to a given candidate.”