georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 06:08 pm
@blatham,
blatham wrote:

Quote:
Nearly 7 million people have been ordered to “shelter in place” around the Bay Area of northern California.


Six Bay Area counties announced its “shelter in place” order Monday for all residents, directing them to practice social distancing by staying home for the next three weeks\ …. TPM

Might be hearing more from georgeob I expect.

It's true. In fact similar self-imposed limits have over the past week been gaining wide spread acceptance, and the new rule won't make significant changes to what is already voluntarily in place, Though my daughter's Law Firm in SF was an exception, in that they have so far kept normal working hours. That will end now. Even the weekly luncheons of the Calamari Club (at Scoma's on Fisherman's wharf) have been cancelled. So far me the key frustration, besides missing the food, drinks and comradery, has been no more workouts at the gym I have frequented steadily for years.

The rule from the health commissioner (that I got on an automated phone call a couple of hours ago) states that we should all stay in our homes except for necessary trips to grocery, gas station or pharmacy. My impression is this is an effort to slow the rate of infections and spread the load on the health care system. The daily tally of total infections in both California and the country has recently been growing at an increasing rate, though today's tally suggests a reduced growth rate, and I believe getting a level-off is the goal here. The data history for China and S Korea indicates similar trajectories.
layman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 06:10 pm
I've had a cold for about a week now. I got to thinking: "Maybe I have that damn coronavirus, eh?"

I didn't know how to get tested. Then I figured out a way.

I went to every elderly nursing home in town and visited every resident I could find.

I figure that if I have it, I'll know when they start reporting a huge death rate at those nursing homes.

Purty smart on my part, doncha think!?
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 06:44 pm
@layman,
Quote:
The COVID-19 virus appears to be more easily transmitted than seasonal influenza. The “reproductive number” – the number of new infections generated from one infected individual – is estimated to be about 2.5 for this virus, which is higher than for the flu. In other words, each infected person spreads it to 2.5 other people. For an epidemic to vanish, transmission needs to drop below 1.

While the symptoms of flu and COVID-19 are similar, COVID-19 seems to be causing more severe disease. Of infections, 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe and require oxygen and 5% are critical, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.


See!?

"Higher than the flu!!!"

We're all gunna die, I tells ya!!!!
snood
 
  3  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 06:46 pm
@layman,
Did your parents have any living children?
layman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 06:53 pm
@snood,
snood wrote:

Did your parents have any living children?


Naw, my fokes is long dead.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 07:02 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
My impression is this is an effort to slow the rate of infections and spread the load on the health care system. The daily tally of total infections in both California and the country has recently been growing at an increasing rate, though today's tally suggests a reduced growth rate, and I believe getting a level-off is the goal here.
Exactly. And it is really the only strategy to adopt now. The three of us here made the decision this morning to remain in the house other than for walks if we choose. Shopping will be done by a young relative as needed. It's unclear whether there are any verified infections in this small city but there will be soon enough and it's likely there are unrecognized infections now. Brother will miss golf and his work for Habitat for Humanity. Sister in law will have to cease all her personal support for myeloma patients (she is one herself). I'll miss some social interactions and a bunch of renovation work that was upcoming but that's really nothing of concern for me. Best of luck to you and yours.
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 07:07 pm
@layman,
Quote:
The fact remains that, on average, 60,000-70,000 die each year from the common flu (virtually all elderly and/or suffering from ill health to begin with).

The government encourages us to get flu shots — there's a vaccine. And even if it's not 100% effective — sometime the seasonal flu is a completely different strain — the vaccine can still lessen the severity of illness. Those people who do get complications from the flu tend to seek medical attention, and they probably occupy a lot of hospital beds in years when the flu is particularly virulent. And yes, you would expect a majority of these people to reflect the virtual demographic you suggested, the old and the sick (and probably a lot of them are poor).

So what happens when there's a new stream of old, sick, poor people headed for an ICU near you, and there's no vaccine, no preexisting experience with the virus, no "herd immunity"? We'll have to kick all those old, sick influenza patients out of bed to make room for the new ones, who are sicker. A high toll on health workers has been noted in other countries as the fatalities begin to climb a steeper and steeper curve. Next thing you know there's a shortage of doctors and beds. They're also concern about mutation, and the chance that the virus could evolve into something more lethally distributed through the whole population.

There's something of historic import underway, right before our eyes, which will affect us for years. I can understand why the media wants to report pandemic news so heavily, I can understand why the public consumes pandemic news so readily, and I can understand why politicians wish to control the pandemic news cycle so desperately. And who knows — we might luck out and find that we overdid it, it was completely overblown, nothing more than a hoax concocted by the president's political enemies. You know, like climate change.

Quote:
Why isn't there an hour by hour or day by day tracking of every new death from the flu which is reported in every news headline?


I think you answered that already:

Quote:
Worldwide the figure is in the millions.


It's no longer "news".

0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 07:26 pm
@coldjoint,
Quote:
They missed the boat in 2009.

Hey, sometime if you've got a minute, dig up an article which lays out this story. Because I looked at the Wikipedia article and the response wasn't faulted or criticism of it mentioned.

Quote:
U.S. officials observed that six years of concern about H5N1 avian flu did much to prepare for the current H1N1 outbreak, noting that after H5N1 emerged in Asia, ultimately killing about 60% of the few hundred people infected over the years, many countries took steps to try to prevent any similar crisis from spreading further. The CDC and other U.S. governmental agencies used the summer lull to take stock of the United States response to H1N1 flu and attempt to patch any gaps in the public health safety net before flu season started in early autumn. Preparations included planning a second influenza vaccination program in addition to the one for seasonal flu, and improving coordination between federal, state, and local governments and private health providers. On October 24, 2009, U.S. President Obama declared swine flu a national emergency, giving Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius authority to grant waivers to requesting hospitals from usual federal requirements.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 08:14 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:
That's the Ferry between Algonac, Michigan, and Walpole Island, Ontario.

I took the ferry across Lake Michigan when I was returning from Wyoming for the eclipse. Out of about a hundred cars there were about a dozen corvettes (newer models).

Someone said it was probably some kind of club for corvette owners making a road trip.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 08:47 pm
DeWine closing polls tomorrow. Health reasons. Uncertainty on whether election is cancelled or postponed.

But do consider how such a scenario might play out in November if Trump is worried he will lose. Watch for right wing voices or GOP led governments floating such a possibility. It would be such an unprecedented move that it would require a run-up messaging projecct.
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 09:49 pm
@hightor,
Quote:
Hey, sometime if you've got a minute,

I only am saying the MSM was ready to tell Obama's story the way Obama wanted it told. Obama did not get negative coverage.
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 09:54 pm
@coldjoint,
Trumplied his way thru the campaign and has been lying nonstop ever since. Hard to put a ;positive spin on that
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Mon 16 Mar, 2020 10:28 pm
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
Hard to put a ;positive spin on that

He has got four more years. We have positive results. The virus is not Trumps fault. People will not blame him for a recession because they want him there to take them out of that recession if it happens.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 01:35 am
@layman,
People are used to the flu, and the chances to die from COVID-19 are ten times higher at the very least.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 02:05 am
@Walter Hinteler,
US drugmaker Pfizer and Germany's BioNTech will immediately start work together on a potential vaccine for COVID-19, the companies announced in a joint statement on Tuesday.

Both companies have signed a letter of intent for the vaccine's distribution outside China and they will decide on financial terms, manufacturing and possible commercialisation over the next few weeks.
The two companies already work together to develop mRNA-based vaccines for influenza.

A day earlier, BioNtech signed a deal with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical outlining its rights in China to its experimental coronavirus vaccine.

The companies are aiming to start testing on humans from late April.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 02:21 am
Ohio primary vote halted at last minute amid coronavirus court battle

Health officials step in after judge refuses Governor’s recommendation to postponing in-person voting

Daniel Strauss in Washington DC
Tue 17 Mar 2020 03.27 GMT

Heath officials in Ohio have postponed the state’s primary vote just hours before polls were set to open, an 11th-hour decision that came after a judge denied the Governor’s request to postpone the vote because of the coronavirus.

Health director Amy Acton declared a health emergency that would prevent the polls from opening out of fear of exposing voters and volunteer poll workers, many of them elderly.

Arizona, Florida and Illinois were proceeding with their presidential primaries.

Earlier on Monday, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine recommended that his state postpone in-person voting during Tuesday’s primary elections. DeWine said he alone did not have the authority to postpone the election, but lawyers would file a lawsuit to try to move the in-person voting date to 2 June.

“We cannot conduct this election tomorrow,” DeWine said, adding that Ohioans should not be forced to make the “choice between their health and their constitutional rights and their duties as [an] American citizen”. ...

In a press conference announcing the new guidelines Trump said he thought postponing elections are “unnecessary.”

Four states were set to hold primary elections on Tuesday as Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden faces off against rival Bernie Sanders for the presidential nomination. In person votes were still set to take place in Arizona, Illinois, and Florida, despite all facing pressure to stop mass gatherings or activities that could spread the virus.

Georgia already postponed next week’s primary, and Louisiana has postponed its scheduled 4 April primary. Kentucky announced on Monday it would postpone its primary from 19 May to 23 June. ...

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/16/judge-declines-ohio-request-delay-primary-vote-amid-coronavirus
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 02:30 am
@coldjoint,
Quote:
Obama did not get negative coverage.

That's only because the Obama administration was prepared and acted effectively in response. Trump refused to consider the threat it posed and as a result the US response has been late and the effort somewhat haphazard. He also deserved criticism for slashing emergency response funds (and, typically, trying to shift the blame to someone else).
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 02:46 am
@hightor,
I disagree. I think it is because of progressive bias in the media.
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 02:47 am
@blatham,
blatham wrote:
DeWine closing polls tomorrow. Health reasons. Uncertainty on whether election is cancelled or postponed.
But do consider how such a scenario might play out in November if Trump is worried he will lose. Watch for right wing voices or GOP led governments floating such a possibility. It would be such an unprecedented move that it would require a run-up messaging project.

Progressives are silly. Just vote absentee.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  3  
Reply Tue 17 Mar, 2020 03:22 am
@hightor,
Quote:
He also deserved criticism for slashing emergency response funds (and, typically, trying to shift the blame to someone else).

Look at the real nice policy proposal these criminals are contemplating in the midst of all this:



Trump Administration Is Relaxing Oversight of Nursing Homes

A proposal would loosen federal rules meant to control infections, just as the coronavirus rips through nursing homes.

By Jesse Drucker and Jessica Silver-Greenberg

March 14, 2020

The Trump administration has been working to relax regulations governing America’s nursing homes, including rules meant to curb deadly infections among elderly residents.

The main federal regulator overseeing nursing homes proposed the rule changes last summer, before the coronavirus pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of nursing homes to fast-spreading diseases. The push followed a spate of lobbying and campaign contributions by people in the nursing-home industry, according to public records and interviews.

The coronavirus has killed 13 residents at a nursing home in Washington State; dozens more residents and employees there have fallen ill. Seeking to prevent further contagion, some states, including New York, have banned most nonmedical personnel from setting foot inside nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, which nationally have about 2.5 million residents.

Last July, the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or C.M.S., set in motion a plan to weaken rules imposed by the Obama administration that required every nursing home to employ at least one specialist in preventing infections. The proposed rules — which the agency is completing and has the power to enact — eliminate the requirement to have even a part-time infection specialist on staff. Instead, the Trump administration would require that anti-infection specialists spend “sufficient time at the facility.”

Critics say the proposed requirement is so vague that it would be essentially meaningless — and dangerous.

“It adds up to less time, less infection control,” said Anthony Chicotel, a staff lawyer for California Advocates for Nursing Home Reform. He said the proposed change was “alarming.”

Attorneys general in 17 states have called the proposed rules a threat to “the mental and physical security of some of the most vulnerable residents of our states.”

The White House referred questions to the Medicare and Medicaid agency. In an interview on Saturday, the agency’s administrator, Seema Verma, said the proposed rule changes were not about easing up on nursing homes but “about not micromanaging the process.” The proposed changes to the infection-prevention rules, she said, could actually result in a “higher level of staffing.”

“We have to make sure that our regulations are not so burdensome that they hurt the industry,” she said.

Ms. Verma emphasized that the rules were still in the proposal stage and not yet complete. “We have to make sure that we get it right for the sake of patients,” she said.

Infection-prevention specialists are supposed to ensure that employees at nursing homes properly wash their hands and follow other safety protocols. They are widely considered the front line for stopping infections, among the leading causes of deaths in nursing homes. ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/business/trump-administration-nursing-homes.html
0 Replies
 
 

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