Progressives (Liberals)

@Lash,

Quote:

Biden won't win.

So, now you're a prophesying gypsy? Pleaee, put your hand over your mouth, the gleam off your set of good capped teeth is hurtful!

Until results are in, nobody knows who'll have the victory.

(though I suspect you may be correct)

1 Reply

@Brand X,

Warren has a problem attracting white men. She loses this demographic to Sanders by a large margin.

Quote:

Warren has had a consistent gender imbalance when it comes to male and female voters. While she typically performs well among women (both in her home state and nationally), men present much more of a challenge. That was true on Super Tuesday as well.

CNN exit polling, tweeted by Massachusetts political reporter Nik DeCosta-Klipa, showed Warren faring poorly among voters without college degrees — and especially among white men without college degrees.

Despite the liberal reputation of Massachusetts, the state actually has a substantial number of unaffiliated, so-called “independent” voters. They make up 55 percent of the overall electorate and help explain why super-blue Massachusetts has a history of electing moderate Republican governors.

While Warren has high favorability ratings among women, it’s much lower among men — especially independent men in her home state. These are voters who are more politically aligned with the state’s moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Baker and see Warren as too far left. They’ve been a weak spot for Warren since she first ran in 2012. Exit polls from 2012 showed Brown did better with independent voters (particularly men), while enthusiasm among women and the Democratic base helped propel Warren to a win.

The recent Suffolk poll of 2020 candidates showed a continuation of this trend. The poll showed Warren as the leading candidate among women. But when results were broken out for men, she was tied for fourth place in her home state. Sanders was also beating her 35 percent to 23 percent among nonwhite voters and had a 23-point lead on Warren among voters under the age of 35.

“Warren would win the Massachusetts primary [on Tuesday] if only women were voting,” Paleologos said. Of course, they weren’t.

0 Replies

@Olivier5,

Well if you are right we may have the choice between a do-nothing and a do-too- much

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

The super Tuesday results were more or less as forecasted...

That's not true. Sanders was foretasted to do much better in several states including Virginia, Texas and Minnesota. There was a clear late surge to Biden that was not in the polls.

1 Reply

@engineer,

I was writing very generally and was indeed careless about those details.

0 Replies

@blatham,

blatham wrote:

Bloomberg is out. Endorses Biden.

That endorsement is not worth much. Let's see if he now spends the sort of money he spent on his personal project in another - his stated goal - to bring Trump down. It's not as if he doesn't have a ****-ton more than he'll ever need.

I'm not sure that you should say that endorsement is not worth much. Bloomberg is one of the last vestiges of the moderate Republican Party which used to be so strong in the northeast. If his fellow republican exiles are looking for a home, he is pointing to Biden.

2 Replies

@Olivier5,

Quote:

...more for Americans to worry about than for me...

Thanks for yet another chuckle.

When America does something or if it doesn't, the ripple effect hits other nations. (similarly, when another nation acts of does not, The U.S.A. feels some level of impact)

0 Replies

@engineer,

Quote:

...last vestiges of the moderate Republican party...

He was a bona fide Democrat up until he threw his hat in the ring to be NYC mayor. He was never, even in his 12 years as mayor, a genuine Republican.

1 Reply

@Sturgis,

Maybe, but he endorsed Bush in 2004 and spoke at the Republican Convention that year.

1 Reply

@engineer,

Heck, if that's all it takes, then I must be a pal of old school Republicans. I voted for G.W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. (the only times I cast my ballot for a Republican Presidential candidate). (I have voted Republican for other elected positions)

1 Reply

@Sturgis,

Quote:

Quote:
Re: Lash (Post 6968208)
Quote:
Biden won't win.

So, now you're a prophesying gypsy? Pleaee, put your hand over your mouth, the gleam off your set of good capped teeth is hurtful!

Until results are in, nobody knows who'll have the victory.

(though I suspect you may be correct)

Her statement doesn't arise from any set of careful analyses. It's just a staple of Sanders camp rhetoric and it's tossed up in reference to anyone but Sanders. It's partly a means to slam others running and partly a device to keep passions/hopes high in that camp. Did we see anyone in her crowd correctly predict what happened last night? I doubt she even actually believes it herself but it wouldn't matter if she does.

As you said, nobody knows what will happen if either of the two become the nominee. Doesn't last night tell us anything?

Actually, last night does tell us something important. Turnout was very high and enthusiasm IS high among Dem voters. Recall the successes Dems had in 2018!

Has there ever been an opposition candidate so vulnerable as Trump? A candidate so despised - for such good reasons - as him? Remember the Women's March. Those people, all around the country, have not changed their minds or somehow lost their sense of revulsion. Does anyone know a Dem voter who has, over the last three years, changed their minds and pulled Trump to their bosom? And he has never reached 50% in any credible polling. Trump is the least liked President in history. No president has ever been re-elected with popularity ratings below 50%. Had the prior election had any other candidate than Clinton (whose was broadly disliked and had horrible polling numbers) he surely would not have won.

Trump's strength is in the solidity of his base along with a popular cable network that serves as his dependable propaganda outlet. Without Fox, he wouldn't get elected to clean toilets.

And that's why turnout is everything. Thus all the moves and devices designed to thwart Dem voter voting and enthusiasm.

Edit: And let's add, because this is important, what is now happening with the spread of covid and the consequences to the economy, Trump has become even more acutely vulnerable. He knows it too which is why he's so obsessed with controlling information and citizens' perceptions of him and his administration. His empty boasts as to competence and to being cause of the steady economy are probably the greatest threat to his re-election hopes.

1 Reply

@engineer,

Quote:

Bloomberg is one of the last vestiges of the moderate Republican Party which used to be so strong in the northeast. If his fellow republican exiles are looking for a home, he is pointing to Biden.

Surely those people were already there. Certainly, all the never Trump crowd have been for some time.

0 Replies

@georgeob1,

I see Trump as a threat to democracy in the US and beyond. We're living a period that a future tragedian might call The Resistable Rise of Arturo Trump.

0 Replies

@Sturgis,

I'm well aware. It's one of the reason I post here. Yet the US president is not my president and his actions or lack thereof tend to affect Americans more than they affect me.

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We all understand, I hope, that Burisma will now ramp up big-time. It is a 100% predictable move. It's what they do. Swift boat. Email server. Whitewater.

It. Is. What. They. Always. Do.

0 Replies

@blatham,

Do you really know just what is behind Lash' statement, or that no "careful analysis", such as you imply you have done, was involved on her part? The Democrat establishment, and many Democrat voters certainly appear to have reacted to the possibility of an unstoppable Sanders movement within the party: several candidates have pulled out of the race and publicly endorsed Biden, while voters turned out in greater than expected numbers for Biden in some of the Super Tuesday primaries. However, the Sanders win in the California Primary should remind us that the Sanders movement within the Democrat Party has been frequently underestimated by its opponents.

I was surprised by Bloomberg's decision to pull out of the race and endorse Biden. My estimate was that he was the greatest threat to Trump and his leverage would grow as Democrat voters contemplated their election prospects with either Sanders or Biden . Despite his lukewarm showing in the recent primaries, I believed that time was on Bloomberg's side - a view he evidently doesn't share.

This now leaves Democrats with a risky situation, in that, however much they may unite around Biden, his well-known defects as a campaigner, and the now well-publicized odor of corruption that surrounds him both remain - and both point to serious disadvantages in a contest with Trump, whom I believe will easily defeat Biden, and possibly by a very large margin.

1 Reply

So far at least, Pence's prayers regarding the corona virus don't seem to have been effective. Maybe if they do it again but shout?

0 Replies

@georgeob1,

Quote:

Do you really know just what is behind Lash' statement, or that no "careful analysis", such as you imply you have done

1) her posts have a long history of such claims/assertions
2) I know of no such analyses
3) all she has to do is link to them if they exist

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If I could afford it, now would be the time to visit some of the world's great, but usually overcrowded, sites and destinations. Bad timing all around.

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Quote:

Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
There's a glaring absurdity at the core of Trump's new strategy against surging Joe Biden: Trump is painting Biden as a creature of the "socialist" Democratic Party, while *also* trying to demoralize young voters by claiming Dems thwarted socialist Bernie:
https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/04/trumps-ugly-new-strategy-against-surging-biden-undercuts-itself/

On the other hand, absurdity, to Trump's base seems to be a nutritional ingredient.

0 Replies

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