LAS VEGAS — Tomorrow night here will be the ninth presidential debate for five of the Democratic candidates — Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar.
And it will be the first debate for Michael Bloomberg.
A new national NPR/PBS/Marist poll out this morning has Bloomberg hitting 19 percent, giving him his fourth accepted poll at 10 percent or higher, which appears to have qualified him for Wednesday’s Democratic debate.
What’s more, Bloomberg’s campaign has said the former New York City mayor will appear on the stage. “Mike is looking forward to joining the other Democratic candidates on stage and making the case for why he's the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump and unite the country,” campaign manager Kevin Sheekey said in a statement.
And here’s what having Bloomberg at the debate will mean:
It could suck the oxygen from some of the candidates trying to compete with Bernie Sanders — like Pete Buttigieg (who won Iowa) or Amy Klobuchar (who finished a surprising third in New Hampshire). Indeed, our friends over Politico Playbook write: “Bloomberg vs. Bernie: It’s on.”
It gives Sanders and Warren the billionaire foil for their policies and worldview.
And it means that plenty of scrutiny is probably coming Bloomberg’s way.
That could hurt him. Or he could survive and thrive — like Donald Trump did in 2015-2016.
Strikingly, Bloomberg isn’t even competing in Nevada’s caucuses; he’s skipping the first four contests.
But he will be on the debate stage tomorrow night.
Sanders and Bloomberg leapfrog Biden in national poll
When you add it all up, the biggest likely beneficiary to having Bloomberg on the debate stage is Bernie Sanders — who also is now leading that national NPR/PBS/Marist poll by double digits.
Here are the numbers:
Sanders: 31 percent (+9 since December)
Bloomberg: 19 percent (+15)
Biden: 15 percent (-9)
Warren: 12 percent (-5)
Klobuchar: 9 percent (+5)
Buttigieg: 8 percent (-5)
No other candidate gets more than 2 percent in the poll.
The poll also includes hypothetical general-election matchups versus Trump:
Biden 50 percent, Trump 44 percent
Bloomberg 48 percent, Trump 44 percent
Sanders 48 percent, Trump 45 percent
Buttigieg 47 percent, Trump 45 percent
Klobuchar 47 percent, Trump 45 percent
So the Dem candidate who leads Trump by the largest margin – Biden – is also the candidate who’s lost the most ground in the Democratic race after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Quote:Steven Shepard
@POLITICO_Steve
For all the indignation from the Sanders camp about the rules change that enabled Bloomberg's debate qualification, it's hard to imagine a bigger beneficiary than Bernie. The Vermont senator is surging ahead, but guess who will bear the brunt of the attacks tomorrow night?
2020 Vision: Sanders, Bloomberg lead in Virginia
Speaking of polls this morning, a new Monmouth survey shows Sanders and
Bloomberg are tied in Virginia, which is one of the 14 states holding contests on Super Tuesday, March 3.
The numbers:
Bloomberg: 22 percent
Sanders: 22 percent
Biden: 18 percent
Buttigieg: 11 percent
Klobuchar: 9 percent
Warren: 5 percent
(Remember, if you’re not at 15 percent, you’re not picking up delegates.)
Interestingly, the poll also reduces the Dem field in Virginia into potential two-way contests:
Biden 53 percent, Sanders 38 percent
Bloomberg 47 percent, Sanders 41 percent
Sanders 44 percent, Buttigieg 42 percent
Sanders 45 percent, Klobuchar 42 percent
But one important thing here: Just 25 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in Virginia say they are firmly set on their candidate choice — which means there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
On the campaign trail today
One day before Wednesday’s debate, the action remains in Nevada: Bernie Sanders holds rallies in Las Vegas and Reno before attending a CNN town hall at 8:00 p.m. ET… Pete Buttigieg stumps in Vegas before attending his CNN town hall at 9:00 p.m. ET… Amy Klobuchar also makes stops in Las Vegas before attending her CNN town hall at 10:00 p.m. ET… Elizabeth Warren and Tom Steyer attend a National Domestic Worker Forum in Vegas… And Joe Biden is also in the city… Elsewhere, Tulsi Gabbard campaigns in Virginia.
Dispatches from NBC’s campaign embeds
Even in Nevada, Joe Biden can’t escape Iowa. Per NBC’s Marianna Sotomayor, an event-goer yesterday asked how Biden why he thought he lost, and if he can start winning. Biden responded, “One of the four most difficult states for me to win was going to be in Iowa because--they are good people-- it's all white it’s all Midwesterners and a lot of farming and it was going to be but it-- We did it okay if you take a look at what happened there, I mean it was kind of an that I hope doesn't happen here,” Biden said. “My support in the Democratic Party and all the data still shows you will see is I am the candidate who has the broadest support from all sectors of the economy.”
And Tom Steyer is telling potential voters that his performance in Nevada and South Carolina is “do or die” for him, NBC’s Jordan Jackson reports.
“Steyer answered questions from reporters after the event in South Carolina and spoke about the importance of Nevada and South Carolina to his strategy: ‘They are do or die. You're asking me a question. I'm telling you the truth. It's like, I need to be able to show in states where people have seen me and met me.’”
Data Download: The number of the day is … 26,000
26,000.
That’s the number of Nevada Democrats who have already participated early in Nevada’s caucuses as of yesterday, per the state party.
This is the first time Nevada has enabled caucus-goers to participate early — where participants can rank their choices before caucus day.
Also, 56 percent of those who participated early on Saturday were first-time caucus-goers.
