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Iraq...what is going to happen and what will Bush/Rove do?

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 08:25 pm
fbaezer

Nice to see you.

The coolest cucumber in the picture seems to be Sistani. He's refused to engage the many invitations to violent and imprudent response, and he seems to have been the individual with whom the US has had to make key accomodations. Assuming that the Shia slate will prove quite successful in the vote counts, I think he will continue to exercise prudence and make significant room for Sunni representation in governance and in the writing of their constitution.
0 Replies
 
HofT
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 08:33 pm
Yes, Blatham, but Tocqueville explained also why it was justified:
_____________________________________________________________

"..En examinant de près les vices et les faiblesses que font voir souvent en Amérique ceux qui gouvernent, on s'étonne de la prospérité croissante du peuple, et on a tort. ce n'est point le magistrat élu qui fait prospérer la démocratie américaine; mais elle prospère parce que le magistrat est électif."

_____________________________________________________________

http://www.cvm.qc.ca/encephi/contenu/textes/Democratie4.htm

_______________________________________________________________
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 08:42 pm
America's sense of unique and special glory resting on the perceptions of...a Frenchman.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 09:25 pm
Blatham,

Tocqueville was a remarkably perceptive observer. Moreover he had the advantage of being the first to publish. However, he wrote what he wrote long ago. Nothing of our self-perception rests on his words.

I haven't ever suggested that America deserves or should get continuous applause. However, I have attempted to persuade you that neither is it deserving of continuous criticism and backbiting, particularly by nations that did far worse in their moments in the historical sun.

We have discussed this issue many times in a number of forums. You might recall that I have, from the beginning, emphasized that our principal reason for the intervention was to change the historical trajectory of Iraq and create, in the midst of a very troubled Moslem world, an example of a modern, relatively open state. I believe events so far have tended to confirm this observation.

Now that the elections have been completed, it may be worth a look back at your analysis and predictions back on page one. Do you still stand by them? I am a little unclear on one point in them. It appears that you have predicted that we wlll BOTH pull our troops out very quickly AND leave a substantial military presence in Iraq to protect some unnamed interest. These projections appear to be a bit inconsistent. Which is it? Do you really mean both?
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 09:37 pm
I'd like to offer my answer to that and I am sure Bernie will offer his own, it's my contention that Bush will withdraw substantil front-line activity of US troops in Iraq but will retain substantial "rear guard" feet on the ground (including privateer personel) not quite in the purview of the Iraqi populace. The US will then have a relatively large foot-print but small face. Just my thoughts at the moment.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 09:54 pm
Quote:
You might recall that I have, from the beginning, emphasized that our principal reason for the intervention was to change the historical trajectory of Iraq and create, in the midst of a very troubled Moslem world, an example of a modern, relatively open state.


Did you? If so, your statement of this rationale preceded the administration's by many months, after Sadaam escaped and the palm tree yield was embarrassing. You ought to dig up the text, mail it off to them, and insist on credit. But I think you misrememberify, george.

As to your last question...yes, I do mean both. I don't believe the US (the administration) has any intention of leaving this bit of real estate. I believe the intention is to pretend. I believe they will attempt to manipulate the form and specifics of the constitution towards their own perceived interests. But regardless of how successful they are at that, they will pretend they had no part, other than helpful brotherly advice. I believe they will continue to say that the world's second largest suppy of oil is quite irrelevant to anything they are doing there, and that they will thwart 'democracy' that threatens their access to, or effective control of, that resource. I think they will have big posters and banners flying when "the boys come home" and that fox and townhall will demand that work on Rushmore begin immediately, but that many boys will not be home...they'll be 'advising' or 'training' and eating dinner in the same cafeterias as the thousands of private enterprise mercenaries and oh so helpful american adminstrators on temporary loan.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 09:55 pm
Smart boy, dys.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 11:30 pm
blatham wrote:

Did you? If so, your statement of this rationale preceded the administration's by many months, after Sadaam escaped and the palm tree yield was embarrassing. You ought to dig up the text, mail it off to them, and insist on credit. But I think you misrememberify, george.


Not at all. I always indicated this was the key REASON for the intervention, and I believe quite strongly this was always prominent in the minds of prominent administration figures even a decade ago. The RATIONALE was mistakenly allowed to be forced into the WMD mold only because of the decision to take the matter to the UN - a precondition the British established for their participation. A long time ago we had Paul Wolfowitz aboard Nimitz during an Arabian sea cruise (he was then Ambassador to Indonesia and had several of their government figures with him. Iran was our chief focus then, but Wolfowitz I recall offered his views of the prevailing distemper in the Moslem world and noted that Iraq (Mesopotamia) of all the former Ottoman states had the best chance for modern development, based on its history and the temperment of its people - but only if we can get the Baathists out he added -- this was in the early '80s.
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 11:50 pm
Another unimpeachable source said the same thing in 1998:

"if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state..."
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/980223-fatwa.htm

He didn't like the Baathists either.
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 06:58 am
OBL has already achieved his first aim from 1998 >

"So far, the Bush administration has not publicly indicated that it will seek permanent bases in Iraq to replace those recently given up in Saudi Arabia, a possibility mentioned by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz before US forces moved into Iraq. The US already has bases in Kuwait and Qatar."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0930/p17s02-cogn.html

> removal of bases from Saudi Arabia.

His second item, Iraq, is in flux, as is his third. The main problem I see with him and his followers is that they're thinking in apocalyptic terms unfolding over decades or even centuries - otherwise there's no explanation for how so many young educated people would become suicide bombers. I don't know if we have that kind of patience; we certainly don't have that kind of perspective. They don't even need to "win" in any sense understood by any of our military theories - all they have to do is wait us out.

I respect the assessments made by Timber, G OB and others here on the relatively low casualties and costs so far, but the fact is that OBL & Co. are still on the loose and free to up the ante at their convenience.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:08 am
georgeob1 wrote:
blatham wrote:

Did you? If so, your statement of this rationale preceded the administration's by many months, after Sadaam escaped and the palm tree yield was embarrassing. You ought to dig up the text, mail it off to them, and insist on credit. But I think you misrememberify, george.


Not at all. I always indicated this was the key REASON for the intervention, and I believe quite strongly this was always prominent in the minds of prominent administration figures even a decade ago. The RATIONALE was mistakenly allowed to be forced into the WMD mold only because of the decision to take the matter to the UN - a precondition the British established for their participation. A long time ago we had Paul Wolfowitz aboard Nimitz during an Arabian sea cruise (he was then Ambassador to Indonesia and had several of their government figures with him. Iran was our chief focus then, but Wolfowitz I recall offered his views of the prevailing distemper in the Moslem world and noted that Iraq (Mesopotamia) of all the former Ottoman states had the best chance for modern development, based on its history and the temperment of its people - but only if we can get the Baathists out he added -- this was in the early '80s.


george
I'm a bit too lazy to find the old threads, but I'll take your word on it. And in fact you've reminded me of the sequence of rationales offered up for reasons of palatability.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:36 am
I love helen. I hadn't been aware the bases in Saudi Arabia were now kaput. That would have, I expect, brought a sigh of relief from the Sauds. They don't an uprising and neither does the WH, regardless of anything like civil rights issues or shallow idiocies for the masses like 'freedom on the march'.

The bad guys ARE Usama and crowd. But they aren't alone in this mess. An obviously effective pre-emptive PR strategy immediately puts any open discussion of relationship between Wolfowitz and Likud into the category of anti-semitism. And big money petro-chemical interests are so deeply buried under Cheney's secretiveness and attention-diverting strategies that is is bloody hard figuring out how that all fits the picture.

The hubris in thinking big shiny weapons are everything, and in thinking other cultures will just natrually perceive the 'truths' of western superiority make me want to take this white house and shove a light stick up its ass.

American kids, and brit kids, and kids from all over may be getting mutilated for decades or longer.

But you guys have to get your own nationalist messianism in check. It's not a good thing, it's a bad thing.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:44 am
Hellen,

Interesting points. OBL runs a revolutionary movement. Often the best way to deal with these things is to create a better alternative for the audience they court and feed on. I believe our actions in Iraq have been/will be a body blow to OBL even though they don't affect him much directly.

With respect to bases in the Persian Gulf region it is important to recognize that we have already replaced the Saudi air & logistical bases and command centers with better facilities in Kuwait and the UAE. We also have fleet support and deep logistical bases in Bahrain and Oman, and in the latter case at bases far from population centers and the attendant political side effects. Apart from direct support to the Iraqi government during a transitional phase we really don't need bases in Iraq.

There will of course be those who entertain themselves with outdated notions that we need to "control the oil" and occupy the oil producing land. That is an artifact of the European colonial method. We haven't seized ownership of the natural resources of Iraq, and we recognize that their interest in selling the oil is as great as ours (and Japan's and China's) in buying it. We just don't want an enemy shutting it all down for political purposes. I believe the current administration is well aware of the bad side effects of bases in foreign countries and knows that in this area an excess is undesirable.
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:23 am
It's a close race between the several ways that you can prove to the world that you're a complete idiot.

1. You can copy your hairstyle after a tire tread.

2. You can get tattoos on your neck or face

3. You can smoke

4. You can claim that the war in Iraq is a "war for oil"

I'm still waiting for one of these "war for oil" people to call the show and make their case.

-Boortz
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dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:43 am
blatham wrote:
fbaezer

Nice to see you.

The coolest cucumber in the picture seems to be Sistani. He's refused to engage the many invitations to violent and imprudent response, and he seems to have been the individual with whom the US has had to make key accomodations. Assuming that the Shia slate will prove quite successful in the vote counts, I think he will continue to exercise prudence and make significant room for Sunni representation in governance and in the writing of their constitution.


I was thinking that very thing yesterday, upon reading a Washington Post article on him.
0 Replies
 
angie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 09:54 am
Talking heads and talking points, ad nauseam.

It's becoming more and more tiresome to dig through the agenda-driven garbage to get at even a sliver of truth. We used to be able, at least to some extent, to count on a kind of journalistic code of ethics, but no more.(IMO)

The truth, as they say, is out there, but, at this point, I see both "sides" locked into their beliefs with no interest in that "truth".

So, McG et al can quote their talking heads and their talking points all they like, no doubt makes them all feel good, doesn't make any of it true.



Oh, and in response to that Boorish (sp?) person's request :
(results of a quick search)

http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/21100/

If all goes according to the Bush plan, American investors and companies will soon begin to own chunks of Iraq's national oil company.

http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/iraq.html

As Michael Renner has written in Foreign Policy in Focus, February 14, 2003, "Washington's War on Iraq is the Lynchpin to Controlling Persian Gulf Oil."


http://www.targetoil.com/article.php?id=35
"If you justify [actions] under the law of military occupation, you
can justify just about anything," said one administration official familiar
with the current debate among Pentagon and State Department lawyers.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 09:58 am
angie wrote:
Talking heads and talking points, ad nauseam.

It's becoming more and more tiresome to dig through the agenda-driven garbage to get at even a sliver of truth. We used to be able, at least to some extent, to count on a kind of journalistic code of ethics, but no more.(IMO)

The truth, as they say, is out there, but, at this point, I see both "sides" locked into their beliefs with no interest in that "truth".

So, McG et al can quote their talking heads and their talking points all you like, doesn't make any of it true.



Oh, and in response to that Boorish (sp?) person's request :
(results of a quick search)

http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/21100/

If all goes according to the Bush plan, American investors and companies will soon begin to own chunks of Iraq's national oil company.

http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/iraq.html

As Michael Renner has written in Foreign Policy in Focus, February 14, 2003, "Washington's War on Iraq is the Lynchpin to Controlling Persian Gulf Oil."


http://www.targetoil.com/article.php?id=35
"If you justify [actions] under the law of military occupation, you
can justify just about anything," said one administration official familiar
with the current debate among Pentagon and State Department lawyers.


I think it's funny that you say "It's becoming more and more tiresome to dig through the agenda-driven garbage to get at even a sliver of truth. " and then post links to articles such as these.

What is the sliver of truth in those 3 articles you have posted? I can't seem to find it.
0 Replies
 
Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 10:01 am
McGentrix wrote:
"3. You can smoke cigarettes"


Have to correct Boortz on that one. Idiots smoke cigarettes (also known as nicotine delivery devices).
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 10:04 am
Ticomaya wrote:
McGentrix wrote:
"3. You can smoke cigarettes"


Have to correct Boortz on that one. Idiots smoke cigarettes (also known as nicotine delivery devices).


Question
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angie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 02:16 pm
McG writes: "What is the sliver of truth in those 3 articles you have posted? I can't seem to find it. "

I'm not surprised. Of course, that you can't find it does not translate to "it's not there".

But if you think I intend to analyze and itemize for you, to enter into yet another unproductive tit-for-tat , not going to happen.

Just file it under "been there", and/or "better things to do with my time".

Your time, too.


p.s. The articles I posted were in response to the one you posted, establishing once again that we can all find articles/sources to "prove our points". The fact that your articles and my articles promote opposing theories/facts does not, however, mean that there is no truth in any of them. I, as you, believe there is; we just hold diametrically opposite opinions regarding which articles present the truth, and in all probability, we always will.

Very Happy ............................................................................................. Sad
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