15
   

Mexican elections 2018

 
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Feb, 2018 08:06 pm
The president of PRI party got himself in a terrible jam after making some stupid puns about his party's defectors to Morena. The party's name can be translated into swarthy (and it was AMLO's idea to use the synonym).
The puns had to do with skin color. They were not thought of, but the man is plainly stupid. After the inmediate social media backlash, he had to apologize and say he was very proud of his dark skin.
PAN (the conservative party) has denounced him to the Comission to Prevent Discrimination.
Now it's obvious he has become a liability. He may lose his post.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Tue 13 Feb, 2018 09:10 pm
@fbaezer,
(following - puzzling it through)
roger
 
  2  
Reply Tue 13 Feb, 2018 11:15 pm
@ehBeth,
What about us? We had sixteen candidates for president, and that was just counting Republicans.
glitterbag
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Feb, 2018 11:18 pm
@roger,
I thought it was 17?
roger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Feb, 2018 12:41 am
@glitterbag,
Who counts?
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Feb, 2018 02:55 pm
Saw this. Don't know how accurate.

http://therealnews.com/t2/story:21107:Leftist-Hopeful%27s-Lead-Signals-Upheaval-for-Mexico

Leftist candidate for president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who some have compared to Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn, has a double-digit lead over his opponent, according to latest opinion polls

John M. Ackerman is a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Editor-in-Chief of the Mexican Law Review and a columnist with both La Jornada newspaper and Proceso magazine. Blog: www.johnackerman.blogspot.com Twitter: @JohnMAckerman

transcript

SHARMINI PERIES: It's the Real News Network. I'm Sharmini Peries coming to you from Baltimore. Latest opinion polls in Mexico show that leftist candidate for president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, enjoys a 2 digit lead over his opponent. López Obrador is often known just by his initials, AMLO. He is running for the presidency for the third time. This time, under the banner of a new political party known as the National Regeneration Movement or MORENA.
AMLO’s support is at 34% compared to 23% for Ricardo Anaya from the conservative National Action Party and 18% for José Antonio Meade of the long dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party.
The presidential election is scheduled for July 1st. Joining us now to discuss the upcoming election is John Ackerman. John is professor at National Autonomous University of Mexico, UNAM and editor-in-chief of the Mexican Law Review, and a columnist for both La Jornada Newspaper and Proceso Magazine. Good to have you with us, John.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Thank you, Sharmini. A pleasure as always to be with you at The Real News.
SHARMINI PERIES: John, let's start off with López Obrador. Who is he? What's his political platform? And what's his political history?
JOHN ACKERMAN: Well, López Obrador is a politician who has been working to democratize Mexico for a long time. He is interesting because he's now 64. He's not old, but he's on the older side of the group of politicians. But he actually has a more refreshing kind of outsider view on politics.
I would say that he's actually similar to Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn, people who have been in politics for a long time but are really finding a much more important presence today than they have before, even though López Obrador has been in the center of politics for a long time but he's now got a lot more support based on this wave of anti-establishment politics.
So, his poll numbers are, that poll number you mentioned is 34 to 23, and then Meade at 18. But that doesn't quite add up to 100, you notice. You've got about 30 or 40% supposedly undecided voters and those are going to most likely break towards López Obrador here. We could be really warming up to a landslide on July 1st.
López Obrado, it's true, he's run before in 2006 and 2012. Theoretically lost on both occasions. 2006, it was pretty blatantly fraudulent. 2012, there was also very irregular, unequal elections. But this time around, it looks like the conditions are very different.
SHARMINI PERIES: And he was also a very loved mayor of Mexico City once.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Yes, of course. Specifically, López Obrador is from Tabasco. He's from the southern part of the country. He worked with indigenous communities for a long time, was in the government in some post in the 80's and 90's.
But then, his real sort of coming out as a leading national politician was when he became president of the PRD, which was a left wing party. It still exists but it's just not on the left anymore. The PRD was the left wing party in the 1990's. He was president of the PRD, really challenged the authoritarian system during 96', 97', 98', the big bank bailout, the fraudulent bank bailout. He was the most important voice against that corruption at the end of the 90's.
Then he became mayor of Mexico City. Coming from Tabasco, he was a real outsider then too. He was mayor between 2000 to 2005. And in the run up to the 2006 elections, Vicente Fox and the other politicians who were in control at that time, did everything possible to get him out of the race. They tried to impeach him. They did actually impeach him as mayor of Mexico City, which only turned him into more of a national hero.
And then finally, they stole the election from him. Felipe Calderón became president in 2006 based on electoral fraud. And since then, he has not occupied a single government post. He could have been senator, or a house member, or governor of some state because he was a major national politician.
But since 2006 until today, the last 12 years, he has been, not on the campaign trail, but on the political movement trail, visiting every single municipality from the smallest one to the largest one in the entire country. He's gone around the country at least three, four, up to five times, some municipalities.
And so, he's just been building up this grassroots movement for the last 12 years, and it looks like now it's finally going to bear fruit, the struggle for so many years to become president. Not just to become president, but to actually bring democracy to Mexico. That's the real challenge.
SHARMINI PERIES: And John, you mentioned that he was impeached once. What was that about?
JOHN ACKERMAN: Well, the whole deal there, the idea was to make him ineligible for the presidency in 2006 because according to Mexican law, if you are not convicted, not even if you're convicted, if you're just formally submitted to criminal proceedings, you're not eligible to register as a presidential candidate.
And so, Vicente Fox, who was the president, falsely accused López Obrador on trumped up charges that he had somehow disobeyed a judicial order and built a highway towards a hospital. This was the ironic thing. He was accused of illegally constructing a road to bring access to a hospital in Mexico City.
Even that wasn't correct. The judicial order didn't say what Fox said it was supposed to say but that's a different question, the issue is that they trumped up charges against him and they kicked him out of Mexico City government.
But then, they eventually had to take the charges away because they were just turning him into a major martyr and in the end, he ended up being the candidate. As I mentioned, they found another way to prevent him from actually occupying the national palace.
SHARMINI PERIES: All right John, so who are his main opponents in this election? And, what do they stand for?
J. Ackerman: Well, just about everybody's against López Obrador. This campaign is about López Obrador against the rest of them. There are four or five different candidates out there in the field who are trying to challenge him. All of them are way below him in the polls.
The most important candidate in terms of publicity, is José Antonio Meade. He is the candidate of the PRI, which is the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which is neither institutional nor revolutionary. It's not even a party either. It's just sort of a group of corrupt technocrats who have been controlling the country for the last 30, 40 years.
Meade is very close to sitting president, Enrique Peña Nieto. He went on the campaign trail in December. He was named their candidate. Although he's officially only in the primary's, but he's already their candidate and his poll numbers are terrible. He's just a terrible candidate. He has a technocratic public position but he is incredibly uncharismatic. He has no connection with the people and he has not been able to actually create any kind of mass support.
The other candidate Ricardo Anaya. He is from the PAN. This is the right wing, Christian, democratic party, the same party, which brought us Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón. This is the right wing. He has neo fascist ideology. His family lives in Texas, actually, in the United States. That's not a problem in and of itself, lots of Mexicans live in the United States, but this is an elite oligarchic family who has escaped from Mexico and prefers the United States to Mexico.
So, it's a vision toward Mexico, which is very much neocolonial, neo imperialist, and Ricardo Anaya has also been accused of serious corruption scandals. And so, he's got his support. He's got 25%, which is sort of the bastion of the right. But, you can't see a whole lot of excitement around him either in terms of the mass population of Mexicans.
And, there are some other people out there who are trying to repeat the Trump story. Individual business men are trying to become president of Mexico and a model of Trump, but that's not really working either.
There's Felipe Calderón's wife, Margarita Zavala, she wants to be president too. But really, these are all different versions of the same thing, and they're all attacking López Obrador, and probably, eventually, they're going to come together and join forces against López Obrador and that'll be the big challenge the end, to see whether they have enough strength between all of them to defeat López Obrador.
SHARMINI PERIES: All right. Now, López Obrador, do you think he'll maintain this lead? July 1st is a long time away in the scheme of things. So, he has to sustain this campaign and the lead that he has. Do you think he'll be able to do it?
JOHN ACKERMAN: Things look generally optimistic. In 2006, he was also way ahead in the polls around this time. He was about 10 points ahead, similar. And then, the regime, the government, put together this incredible smear campaign, illegal advertising, an incredible amounts of violations of electoral law in order to stop him. And this worked in the end. In the end, they had to even do a fraud.
And so that's the risk, that the system will once again, these five other candidates will come together, support one candidate to defeat López Obrador. They will try to use negative campaigning, fear tactics, fake acts of violence to scare people so they don't go out to vote. This all might happen and fraud is very much a common practice in Mexico.
So, that's going to be the real challenge in these elections. Will the Mexican people actually be able to decide who their next president is going to be? If there is democracy this year in Mexico, I have no doubt in my mind that it will be López Obrador. None of these other guys have any kind of real popular support.
But, money, power, Trump, the United States, all of that together, they are conspiring against López Obrador and that's a real risk. So, I couldn't dare to say that his triumph will actually be recognized by the powers that be. That's the big question.
SHARMINI PERIES: Now, speaking of smear campaigns, I've seen some effort to compare López Obrador to Hugo Chávez, have Hugo Chávez’s posters in the background, trying to liken him to Hugo. Is this having a negative or a positive impact? In fact, Hugo Chávez was quite loved by some sectors of the population in Mexico.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Well, this goes way back from 2006, which was his first presidential campaign. That was actually the most important strategy fear campaign against López Obrador, trying to compare him to Chávez, who was of course, alive then. But now all of a sudden, this is one of the great news. The dominant television companies in Mexico no longer control the agenda for discussion.
Social networks have actually taken a very significant place in the national political discussion. People are opening up their eyes to the fact that López Obrador actually has very little to do with Chávez. I think that there is a general current in Latin America of discontent, which, in Venezuela may have brought in Chávez. But in Mexico, we have very different political dynamics. López Obrador has been very explicit. Very, very, very explicit about that his international models are more Franklin Roosevelt or Lula da Silva.
The problem here is that there is a very strong influence in Mexico of this sort of American US ideology, which thinks that anything that has been happening in Venezuela for the last 20 years and everything is negative, and violent and corrupt. There's a lot of ignorance. And so, López Obrador has very much separated his message from that.
SHARMINI PERIES: And there's also a lot of talk about certain alliances of López Obrador to Russia. In fact, you, being a supporter of López Obrador has come under scrutiny yourself for being a Russian agent. So, explain what this is all about and whether it's having any effect in the country.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Yes, special agent Ackermanoski, they call me now. Yeah, it's pretty crazy. This is just a desperate attempt by particularly, Luis Videgaray, who is Peña Nieto's foreign minister, who's trying to get the United States involved, basically. He's trying to get the Trump administration, but particularly the hawks, these Washington hawks worried about Mexico because supposedly Russia has its hand in there.
First of all, there's no evidence at all that the Russians are doing anything in Mexico, or are even interested, or planning on anything involving elections. The only supposed evidence they have is that myself, John Ackerman, I happen to have a weekly video column with RT on social networks. I'm not even on the television. RT does actually have a television channel in Spanish that comes out in Mexico, and Argentina, and Brazil.
I'm not on that. I just have a little video column two minutes a week, which goes out on Facebook and twitter, in which I talk about the need for Mexico to become more democratized. And I'm there because there's no other spaces in Mexican media. Mexican media is absolutely censored, much more closed than Venezuela, for instance, and Venezuela has criticisms...against the president. And in Mexico, recently it's been changing, but generally, the private television and radio is totally pro-regime and pro-establishment. And so, they're trying to make up this idea that somehow the Russians, through Ackerman, are trying to intervene in Mexican elections.
But what I've written in plenty of spaces recently, I have an essay in The Nation about this and other issues, that if the Russians were really interested in wreaking havoc on the US-Mexico relations and destabilizing North America, they would not be supporting López Obrador. They would be supporting Enrique Peña Nieto and his candidate Meade because those are the guys who are creating violence, and conflict, and destruction in institutions in Mexico while López Obrador is trying to defend democracy and institutions.
So, it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. The real story is that there isn't an intervention. What there is is a struggle for democracy in Mexico and a struggle for media plurality. And in general, in Mexico it's very interesting because, these accusations come obviously from Videgaray and this kind of anti-Russian hysteria, which exists in the United States. But in Mexico, we don't have this. There isn't this kind of Russia-phobia in our history or our present.
So, I'm actually really happy because my readers, and my audience, and followers on twitter have been incredibly supportive. This is just taken as a big joke in Mexico and it has not actually affected anything in terms of my own prestige, or López Obrador's campaign because it's very clear what we're all about and that we're independent people looking for democracy. López Obrador, myself and millions of Mexicans.
SHARMINI PERIES: And, let's take up the left critique of López Obrador, such as from the Zapatistas movement or EZLN, have said that López Obrador is a phony and has lost touch with social movements. What is the response to such charges?
JOHN ACKERMAN: They've been saying this for a long time. I myself personally am a Zapatista at least in spirit. My wife and I, we met in Selva Lacandona... the Zapatistas organized in Chiapas some 22 years ago in 1996. But for the last 15, 20 years, they have been very critical. Not only of López Obrador, but any kind of political electoral left and they have a right to be so.
Over the last 15 years, the PRD, which still exists but is no longer left party, the MORENA party is now a left party, the PRD sold out and they squandered their opportunity of using elections, electoral politics, and parties to change things. And so, the diagnosis is right. Historically, recently, we have seen that electoral politics doesn't make a difference.
But that, of course, does not mean that in the future, it couldn't actually make a difference. And 2018 is an incredible opportunity to start again, try. Try this path once again. And the Zapatistas themselves, not the Zapatistas but the Congreso Nacional Indígena, the National Indigenous Congress, which is related to them but not the same, they are actually, I think, recognized in this, finally, by launching their own candidacy.
Marichuy is an indigenous woman who is campaigning or trying to get onto the ballot as an independent candidate, and by that act, by actually participating in elections, they themselves are recognizing that electoral politics is a legitimate sphere for doing politics and struggling for social justice.
And so, I think that with a big change because beforehand, they would just scoff at the idea of elections and now they're actually participating in electoral space. So, I think this is good news and I hope that in upcoming months, there will be much more closeness between the Zapatistas and MORENA, which is López Obrador's party, than there have been in the past because in 2006, Marcos actually publicly came out saying that López Obrador was his enemy. He used those words. In 2012, there was also lots of distance between Zapatistas and López Obrador. The hope is that this year, given the profundity of the crisis of corruption, and violence, and neoliberal destruction of Mexico, that at least temporarily for a few months, we might have a tactical alliance in order to have a political change at the top, which should have to then be pushed from the bottom to turned into a real change from the bottom as well. Of course, it's not enough to just win the elections. You need to do a lot more.
SHARMINI PERIES: All right. John, I thank you so much for joining us today and hope to ride this election with you, and your analysis.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Of course. It would be a pleasure. You have to come down, you guys, to visit us during the campaign. The campaigns officially start on April 31st and go for three months to July 1st. So, it would be wonderful to have you guys come down from Baltimore. Take a trip. It's close. We're only like four hours or something, a flight from New York or DC to Mexico City. So, it could be very exciting!
SHARMINI PERIES: I'm sure there's a lot of people out there who want to take you up on your invitation but we'll certainly try. Maybe we'll have a specific campaign to raise money so that The Real News can go down to cover it for our audience.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Yes.
SHARMINI PERIES: I thank you so much for joining us, John.
JOHN ACKERMAN: Thank you Sharmini. Always a pleasure.
SHARMINI PERIES: And thank you for joining us here on The Real News Network.
Comments
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fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Wed 14 Feb, 2018 04:56 pm
@edgarblythe,
Ackerman is a propagandist for AMLO. One of the bluntest.

His wife is AMLO's proposal for Secretary of the Public Function (the overseer of government actions).

Both fanatics, IMO.

So I'd take anything written or said by Ackerman with a tablespoon of salt.


0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Feb, 2018 05:06 pm
New poll by Consulta Mitofsky:
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/__export/1518590573873/sites/eleconomista/img/2018/02/14/pp_princi_consulta_140218.png_423392900.png

AMLO expands his lead, Meade and the independents falter.

The crucial thing about this poll (Consulta-Mitofsky is Mexico's leading pollster) is that about 24% of those who voted PAN in 2012 are now undecided (one must imagine most of them can't choose between Anaya and independent conservative Margarita Zavala) and the same happens with 12% who voted PRD six years ago, when AMLO was their candidate (they don't know if they'll support the party they voted for the last time, i.e. Anaya or the candidate... AMLO). And the big problem for Meade is that almost everyone who voted for Peña Nieto has a candidate now, and only 58% of them are willing to support PRI again.

0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Feb, 2018 08:42 pm
New poll by Reforma newspaper (evolution since November between parenthesis):

AMLO 32% (+2)
Anaya 25% (+6)
Meade 14% (-3)
Zavala 4% (-2)
Bronco 2% (=)
Jaguar 0% (-1)

0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  3  
Reply Fri 16 Feb, 2018 08:50 pm
Yesterday I had lunch with one of Mexico's top pollsters.
He works for different parties in different races; his material is not published.

He says his numbers are similar to Consulta-Mitofsky's, the trend is towards a tight race between AMLO and Anaya. The most important data is that the most cited as "second choice" by AMLO voters is Anaya, and viceversa.

He says PRI made a mistake by believing they would be the ones against AMLO in the "final face-off", while the Front had it clear that the one to defeat in the first round was Meade. The Front has so far stressed criticism towards PRI, and will leave AMLO and Morena for later.

On governor races, his take is bleak for PRI. The ruling party may lose everywhere.
Three governorships (Guanajuato, Yucatán and Jalisco) are trending to the Front; three are a toss-up between the Front and Morena (the Front is leading in Puebla and Veracruz; Morena is leading in Tabasco) and three are trending for Morena (Mexico City, Morelos and Chiapas).

If things move into a tight presidential race, there's a chance of violence, if AMLO loses by a small margin. He will not accept a defeat and will claim fraud.
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Tue 20 Feb, 2018 07:18 pm
Analyst Jesús Silva-Herzog wrote a few days ago:

"Our party system was born in 1988. It is dying. The arrangement that structured political competition though three distinguishable ideological options doesn't exist anymore... WE had, in the center, an ideologically amorph party (PRI) and, at its side, a center-right (PAN) and a center-left (PRD)...

"That party system is now undone. The three options are no longer a map. The coalitions we have at the table are not coherent alternatives, capable of, tomorrow, structuring the dialogue in Congress and between powers. There will be some who will celebrate the death of the party system. A well deserved extinction, they'll say. Few things are as discredited as that arrangement. I understand the antipathy, but I cannot join the celebration, because what has substituted it is not a stable and productive arrangement that gives orientation and eficacy to pluralism, that permits the application of punishments and facilitates the representation of our diversity...

"The first ingredient is the historical crisis of PRI. Everything indicates that the party in power is heading to the worst electoral disaster of its life... the conformation of the Front alters traditional references. PAN and PRD walking together breaks the habitual coordinates. The Front gives artificial respiration to PRD, breaks the traditional institucionality of PAN and destroys the conservative party's identity... the candidacy of Ricardo Anaya has been costly for PAN, the abuse has broken the party's cohesion...

"Morena has renounced to contours. It not a left wing party anymore, but a pot who wants to pick it all. It is only united of course, by López Obrador. If we look at their candidacies, what kind of a party is it? Like a new version of PRI, Morena has opened its doors to everyone. We see the most corrupt union leaders, and the most conservatives PAN members. The Evangelicals and the Jacobins are there. You can find admirers of Kim Jung Un and adulators of Peña Nieto. Can anyone deny that this is an affront to the defendants of a left-wing option?...

"After July we'll have weaker and more incoherent parties... and they'll be as dirty as they are now".

---

Silva-Herzog's take is similar to my friend the pollster. Only that the pollster thinks that the new party system will be clearer.
The pollster says that, if the PRI has a meltdown, many of his cadres and militants will migrate to the other two blocks. Most of them will go to Morena, since it's the new catch-it-all party.
We can agree that PAN will not survive as it was and nor will PRD. The alliance has changed them both (the more conservative PAN members fled either to PRI, Morena or Zavala's group; the more leftist PRD members went to Morena). My friend says that what will come out is a a sort of a modern party: the party of Mexicans, both center-right and center-left, who look at the world and interact with it.
On the other side, my friend says, we'll have Morena, as the party of Mexicans who look at their belly. The Nationalist catch-it-all and give-aways party. A new PRI with a different dress.
So he imagines a new bipartisan arrangement.

--
I think Silva-Herzog is too pessimistic and my pollster friend too optimistic.
I also think the Dinosaur (PRI) is hard to kill. They survived a third place in 2006.
Anyhow, a new political balance and a different party system is likely to be about to be born.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Tue 20 Feb, 2018 07:22 pm
A recent (telephone and cell) poll by Massive Caller:

AMLO (Morena) 29.8%
Anaya (Front) 25.1%
Meade (PRI) 16.1%
Zavala (Independent) 6.2%
Ríos Piter El Jaguar (Independent) 3.3%
Rodríguez El Bronco (Independent) 1.9%
Undecided 17.1%
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  2  
Reply Wed 21 Feb, 2018 04:24 pm
@fbaezer,
fbaezer wrote:
If things move into a tight presidential race, there's a chance of violence, if AMLO loses by a small margin. He will not accept a defeat and will claim fraud.

Since PRI's acceptance of it's historic loss in 2000, after decades of fraudulent electioneering, I don't see significant fraud occurring in this election. What's the recount or verification process in Mexico? The tight US presidential election of the same year was ultimately decided by the US Supreme Court.
fbaezer
 
  3  
Reply Wed 21 Feb, 2018 08:00 pm
@InfraBlue,
Infra, you touched a key point in Mexican politics.

My generation's struggle was for democracy, since we lived in a simulated democracy ("the perfect dictatorship", said Nobel Prize winner Mario Vargas Llosa). Everyone knew the PRI would win the elections, either because they won the majority of the votes or because they made a fraud.
Mexico arrived at democracy through a series of political reforms forced on PRI.
Perhaps we were very naive in believing democracy by itself would make things work. It didn't. And the new generations don't have the same appreciation of democracy, which we baby-boomers value as a treasure.

Mexican election and verification process is one of the most tightly woven systems in the world.
Elections are organized by INE (National Electoral Institute), which is not a government organization, but a citizen's organization with a huge federal budget. The counselors of INE are non-partisan. Three out of four presidents of INE have been left-wing academics.
Above INE we have the Electoral Tribunal of the Federation, who has the last word over grievances.
Private donations to parties and candidates are severely limited, but there's a substantial amount of public money given to them, and every expenditure must be verified.
Parties cannot buy time on TV or radio. TV and radio time for their promotional material is given to them by INE. Part of this time is evenly divided between all parties; the other part is divided relative to their former Federal electoral percentage.
Citizens must be registered to vote. But the voting credential is the key document for any transaction. If you need to cash a check, the driving license won't do: you need your voting credential. You need the credential for work, paperwork, apply for a scholarship, use public services, etc. It is the only I.D everybody accepts. So almost every adult Mexican is registered. The credential has your photograph in it.
Votes in every precinct are counted by hand by citizens, defined by a draw (the first letter of your last name and the month of birth). Representatives of every party and every candidate are present in every precinct, and can make any complaint. Every election, every party receives the complete listing of all registered voters and their ballot prescinct, so the party representatives can also check the list, which has also the voter's photograph. About 1.5 million citizens participate as precinct officials.
After votes are counted in the precinct, the result is sent to INE, and a program of preliminary results (Prep) appears on the internet, so results can be followed.
A quick count (a method for verification of election results by projecting them from a sample of the polling stations. Different from an exit poll, voters are not asked who they voted for, projection of results is based on official results of the polling station) organized by INE permits results to be given the same night of the election, and winners are proclaimed. But results are not official until the electoral authorities have the whole data.
And I have only wrote about the biggest, more evident locks in a system that has lock after lock after lock. Just like you would if you have had your house burglarized before.

But for a democracy to work you need democrats.
While elections are not fraudulent anymore, we still have some fraudulent, illegal, behaviors.
The most common one, used most -but not only- by the PRI is to give pantries to very poor families. The pantry usually has the logo of the party and the name of the candidate. And people are told that if the candidate wins, they'll have the pantry for the coming years.
And often, PRI militants tell beneficiaries of social programs -the equivalent of food-stamps- that they'll lose the benefit if another party wins.
There is a special attorneyship (Fepade) for electoral crimes and misdemeanors. Not surprisingly, the head of Fepade resigned a few months ago after he received threats by the former director of Pemex (the Mexican oil company) who is being investigated by Fepade in the Oderbrecht scandal that has hit practically all Latin American democracies (and not, also in Venezuela).

But for a democracy to work you need democrats, I wrote.
Part of a democracy is accepting the results. This doesn't happen as often as it should in Mexico. Often the sore loser claims there's a fraud of some sort. The winning party spending over the limit, is the most common of them.

And the sorest loser of them all is AMLO.
AMLO lost the election for governor of Tabasco in 1994 and claimed fraud (the PRI spending over the legal limit).
In 2000 he won the election for major of Mexico City.
In 2006 the lost the Presidential election to Felipe Calderón by a small margin (35.9% vs. 35.3%), claimed fraud, his followers occupied with camps Mexico City's main streets for months. A partial recount was made, with no significant change in the results. He wanted a complete recount.
The claims were about everything: from vote buying to corrupting precinct officials and even his own rappresentatives, to a hidden algorithm in Prep, to a plot made by big business.
Afterwards, he declared himself the Legitimate President of Mexico.
In 2012 he lost the Presidential election to Peña Nieto, this time by almost 7 percentage points: 38.2% vs 31.6%. He claimed fraud again, because of the presumptive use of pre-paid supermarket debit cards. But didn't call for a mass movement.
That's why I wrote "He will not accept a defeat and will claim fraud".

fbaezer
 
  3  
Reply Wed 21 Feb, 2018 08:28 pm
News of recent days:

In Mexico, as I wrote before, the Senate is elected by two ways: each State elects three Senators (2 of the majority party, 1 of the runner-up party) and other 32 Senators are elected in a national list.
Both Morena and the Front parties have made their national list public.
The curious thing about the Front parties is that they have switched their number 1 on the list.
Number 1 in PAN, the conservative party, is the center-left wing governor of Mexico City, Miguel Mancera.
Number 1 in PRD, the left-wing party, is a member of the conservative party, albeit a liberal one, Xóchitl Gálvez, major of Miguel Hidalgo, a Mexico City burough.
Number 1 in Movimiento Ciudadano, the non-ideology party, is Patricia Mercado, former Presidential candidate in 2006 for the (now defunct) Social Democrat Alternative. I voted for her that year.

Number 1 in Morena is a local social leader from the state of Quintana Roo (Cancún is in Q.R), but the real fun comes with other candidates:
Napoleón Gómez Urrutia, a former union leader of miners, accused of stealing $55 million dollars from the union. Napoleón is also accused of being cahoots with Canadian and Mexican mining companies to look the other way on safety measures. He now lives in Canada, as a political refugee. Nestora Salgado, a leader of the Autodefensas (Vigilante organizations) in the crime-ridden state of Guerrero, who spent some time in jail accused of kidnapping. César Martínez Cázares, an extreme right-winger who resigned from PAN, a man who openly loathes the legacy of Lázaro Cárdenas (President of Mexico 1934-40), who put the stepping stones of the welfare State, distributed land for peasants and nationalized oil.

---

The national leader of the Social Encounter Party (the Evangelicals) said to AMLO: "You are Caleb about to have Mount Hebron". And AMLO answered by calling for writing a "moral Constitution, for we look not only for the material well being but also for the wellness of the soul".
AMLO says the President he admires the most is Benito Juárez, the liberal who defeated conservatives (and the French) in the XIX Century, who took away all the privileges of the clergy, stablished the lay State and fought against mixing religion and politics.
Juárez must be rolling in his grave.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  4  
Reply Wed 21 Feb, 2018 08:31 pm
@fbaezer,
That was a fascinating read, F Baez.
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Feb, 2018 08:35 pm
@realjohnboy,
Thanks, RJB.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 22 Feb, 2018 10:51 am
On Meade's struggles.
A good article by The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/22/jose-antonio-meade-mexico-pri-presidential-candidate-common-man-struggles-connect
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 22 Feb, 2018 10:59 am
Panal, the teachers' union party, just distanced itself from PRI's candidate for Mexico City, Mikel Arriola, and his homophobic stances.
Now they have their own candidate for Mexico City governor: Purificación Carpinteyro.
Carpinteyro was Mexico's postmaster during president Calderón administration. Since her tenure, the postal service has become practically useless. She then switched parties, and became a congresswoman for PRD, whre she had a decent voting record. This means Panal is her third party.
Panal plans to grab the non left-wing, non prudish vote.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 22 Feb, 2018 02:26 pm
Another interesting take on Mexican elections.
This time by The Economist, centered on Anaya:

https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21737291-modernising-presidential-candidate-has-best-chance-defeating-left-wing
0 Replies
 
 

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