Mexican elections 2018

I've never voted for AMLO.
I know he's ambitious and authoritarian, his nationalism is outdated, his cronies are corrupt and he yearns for the Mexico of his youth (and mine), which certainly wasn't such a great place.

I was surprised about how much people dislike Peña Nieto. Is support for AMLO in part a reaction to this?

I DO understand AMLO voters.
They are fed up with PRI corruption, the PAN governments were either mediocre (Fox) or a social disaster (Calderón and his war on drugs).
Peña Nieto has been a complete failure: slugging economy, growing violence, more inequality , rampant corruption, cynicism and a terrible communication strategy. Plus, it has been as soft in anything regarding Trump.
People want change.

The campaign was mostly against the Front. The government and PRI attacked Anaya for supposed money laundering, which was never and will never be proved, in order to get into second place and gather the anti-AMLO vote. Meade never got there. Simultaneously, AMLO succeded in presenting PRI and PAN as two parts of "the mafia in power". The concept PRIAN worked for him. The Front never managed to have a distinct face, in most places it looked like "PAN and allies", not like a new thing.

All this said, I think many people don't realize that the type of change AMLO represents means a jump into the void.

José Antonio Meade had 9% of negatives, as Finance secretary, before he accepted to be a candidate for the PRI.
Last time I saw he has 64% negatives.
Peña Nieto has made the PRI brand toxic.

Unless you reside outside Mexico, you cannot vote in advance.
You have to endure the torture until the last day.

I know the type, but it seems to me better than the alternative: the entitled, institutional corrupt type. A bit like Lula would easily beat the competition, even from jail.

I'm saying this from very far away, of course... I know nada.

I have appreciated, Pancho, your reports on Mexico's elections. I admit that I am wary of the impact of the outcome, as are you. Nonetheless, I hope that things can and will turn out well somehow.
Thanks for the coverage.

First exit polls are out:

Governor exit polls, since polls have not closed in the Pacific States:

Morena has easy wins in:
Mexico City (PRD loss)
Chiapas (Greens loss)
Tabasco (PRI loss)
Morelos (PRD loss)

The Front wins in:
Jalisco (PRI loss; governor from Citizens' Movement)
Puebla (PAN retains)

Still too close to call in:
Veracruz (Morena-Front)
Puebla (Morena-Front)
Yucatán (Front-PRI)

AMLO will be Mexico's next President.
According to an exit-poll I had access to, he's defeating Anaya by 20 percentage points and Meade by 28. El Bronco gets 3%
(48-28-20-3)

Meade has conceded defeat.

He was classy at it.

Anaya has conceded, too.

He talked about the government's false accusations against him, but said that they were not the cause López Obrador won.

It was a landslide bigger than expected:

AMLO (Morena) 53%
Anaya (Front) 22.5%
Meade (PRI) 16%
Bronco (independent) 5.5%

The rest is null votes

AMLO's speech was conciliatory, but he didn't name his rivals.

Economic and fiscal discipline, promotion of the internal market
Fight against corruption, not less among his supporters ("the good judge starts in his house")
A change in the strategy against violence
Mutually respectful relationship with the USA

He recognized the plurality of the media, president Peña Nieto for not tempering in the election (actually, he helped him by focusing the attacks on Anaya), and the role of social media in the internet.

What do you think the best case is for a Obrador presidency? Can he reduce corruption? Can he adopt a reasonable policy to counter Trump? Will he have a good policy in fighting the drug war?

I was hoping that Annaya would pull it off...I am trying to understand what this may mean for Mexico with a reasonable but optimistic view.

(I think I understand the worst case fears.)

I will reply tomorrow. Right now I'm overstuffed with work.

Wow... That ought to give AMLO a strong mandate.

big numbers

hope you'll soon have a chance to inhale/exhale/breathe

First, a couple of mistakes I have to correct from earlier posts:

The State PAN retained is its stronghold, Guanajuato. Not Puebla.
But the Front seems to have retained Puebla too. By a very close margin. There will probably be a recount.

And the party who loss the governorship of Tabasco to Morena is PRD, not PRI.

Next, a bit about how big AMLO's landslide was:

With still a few votes to be counted, if we drew an American election style map of Mexico, we'd have all Mexican states but one -Guanajuato, who favored Anaya- painted maroon, for Morena's colors.
The Northwest voted massively for AMLO. He got over 60% in those states. It's like if a Democrat gets 60% in Louisiana, Alabama or Mississipi, or a Republican does the same in California, Oregon and Washington.

Not only Meade did not win a single state. He didn't win a single district.
In the deputies chamber, the PRI coalition won only 14 of 300 districts.
Anaya merely retained his party's and allies strongholds.

The Morena coalition will have a majority in both houses of Congress. This was not seen since 1997. Usually the bigger party gets a plurality.

About the other two states that last night were too close to call:
The Front gets Yucatán.
Morena gets Veracruz.