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Mexican elections 2018

 
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2017 02:09 pm
@fbaezer,
Reading along (and re-watching the fox video)
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Dec, 2017 08:25 pm
Now, a brief look to the contenders for Mexico City governorship.

Mikel Arriola, 42, will contend for the coalition led by PRI. He formerly was head of the National Institute of Social Security. Also known as a pelotari (jai alai player, fun sport). Has practically no chance of winning.

Claudia Sheinbaum, 55, will be the candidate for the coalition led by Morena. A physicist, she was a member of AMLO's cabinet (Ecology) when he was in charge of the city (2000-2006). Actually, AMLO promoted car traffic, with a free 2nd floor of our main thoughway. Later, she was elected mayor of the city burpugh of Tlalpan. Sheinbaum is the favorite to win.

There will be some sort of primaries -via opinion polls- to define the candidate from the Front. The pre-candidates are:

Alejandra Barrales, 50, former leader of the PRD, Union activist. She's the candidate of the party's apparatus (the primaries will be through opinion polls mainly because if they were open, Barrales would win by a landslide through political clienteles)

Salomón Chertorivski, 43, former Secretary of Economy of the city (with PRD), former federal Health Secretary (with Calderón PAN's government), creator of the Popular Health Insurance, that covers every Mexican not into the official Social Security programs (57 million out of 121 million).

Armando Ahued, 58, former Health Secretary of Mexico City, creator of the program "Medico en tu casa" (Physician at your Home) which covers health for those unable to move to a hospital.

Mexico City has been governed by PRD ever since we could vote for the governor, but could now lose to Morena.

I think it would be a luxury if Chertorivski -who has worked for both main parties in the Front- was nominated and elected, but I doubt it. Barrales is better known, will be on the ticket, and Sheinbaum will probably destroy her.

A Chertorivski-Sheinbaum showdown would be pretty interesting for another reason: both are (non practicing) Jews, in a city where Jewish population is below 80 ooo.


0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  3  
Reply Tue 19 Dec, 2017 08:53 pm
All this leads me to write a bit about Mexican political leanings by region:

North and Northwest -border and near border states- are conservative but modern. Individualistic, American type ideology. They favor pro-business candidates and do not vote left. Their state elections are usually bipartisan: PRI against PAN.

The West is politically more varied. PAN is strong, PRD governs Michoacán and MC has gained a lot of ground in Jalisco; PRI and Morena are also present.

The Bajío region, north of Mexico City, is the equivalent of the Bible Belt, traditionalist, only it's mainly Catholic. PAN is very strong.

The Central region, mostly around Mexico City, is left-leaning; PRI is relatively weak (very weak in Mexico City proper); Morena and PRD are strong, PAN is important. Mexico City is cosmopolitan, gay-friendly.

The South is left-leaning, poor and prone to government giveaways, PAN is almost non-existant; PRI, PRD and Morena are relatively strong. They have a so-called Green governor in Chiapas. The South is also where you can find more extreme left movements.

The Southest (Yucatán Peninsula) is somewhat strange. In Tabasco and Campeche the dispute is between PRI, PRD and Morena; in Quintana Roo (Cancún), the same parties plus PAN and, in Yucatán state, PAN is strong and the left non-existant.

The Gulf (Veracruz) is where the vote is more varied; no party is weak, no party is really strong.

http://www.milenio.com/politica/Mapa-politico-Mexico_MILIMA20170607_0520_3.jpg

This governors map may be helpful.
Red is PRI
Blue is PAN
Yellow is PRD
Green is Green Party
Yellow and Blue: PAN-PRD coalition
Gray is El Bronco (independent)
The White state ended up with PRI after a vote recount.
Two "blue" states and one "yellow" state were candidates from the PAN-PRD coalition.
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Dec, 2017 11:35 pm
@fbaezer,
[quote="fbaezer]
Two "blue" states and one "yellow" state were candidates from the PAN-PRD coalition.

[/quote]

What I meant is that two of the red-yellow states governors are PAN, one is PRD and the fourth is independent.
dlowan
 
  2  
Reply Wed 20 Dec, 2017 08:53 pm
@fbaezer,
Enjoying what I can understand of this!
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2018 07:33 pm
This political advertisement has gone viral.
It says absolutely nothing. It only stresses the color of the MC party (member of the Front).
But the music is catchy and the kid is great!



0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  3  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2018 07:36 pm
Please notice that in an urban mestizo country, the ad features a rural indigenous child.

This is part of Mexican political culture. To glorify a distant indigenous past, while in reality discriminating against indigenous people.

AMLO (López Obrador) has pressed the race factor in this race. But I'll write about that later.
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2018 10:12 pm
AMLO attacked his contenders of being "pirrurris" and "señoritingos", derogative words used for rich kids (the latter word being from the XIX Century). Then he went farther, calling them "white". The message he wanted to send is that they don't know their country.

López Obrador is a mestizo. Anaya is blond (for our standards), and Meade has Irish and Lebanese heritage.

This is the first time identity politics, and race, have explicitly entered into a Presidential election in Mexico.
roger
 
  2  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2018 10:14 pm
@fbaezer,
Seems like race is always going to be part of politics. Even when subtle, it's still there.
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Jan, 2018 08:15 pm
@roger,
Yes, Roger, but in Mexico it works in a totally different way.

A little history may help.

Mexican independence was as much about ending with caste privileges as about independence itself. The creation of Mexico as a country goes hand in hand with the formal elimination of race distinctions.

Before the independence, "Peninsulares" (people born in Spain) were the only ones who could be members of the Royal Audience, bishops, judges or high ranking military officers. Criollos (whites born in Mexico) and some mestizos were landowners, mine owners, merchants, professionals, officers, but were blocked from political power. The idea of ending all caste privileges was also tempting for the indigenous population, as much as independence itself.

For some of the independentistas, the struggle was similar to the one that happened a few decades earlier in the US: no taxation without representation. For others, it was only a way to take away the Spanish yoke, formally make everybody equal, but keep the privileges for the criollos.
The Mexican Independence War ended with the "embrace of Acatempan" between rebel Vicente Guerrero and former royalist officerm turned independentist, Agustín de Iturbide.
Iturbide tried to become Emperor. Failed and was executed. He was blond. Guerrero was a mulatto. Our second president.
The came a long period of instability: liberals against conservatives, we lost half of our territory during a conservative government. Liberals won the Civil War, and the conservatives appealed to the French, who invaded Mexico.
We had a second Emperor. Maximilian of Habsburg. The French were defeated and Maxi was executed. He was blond, of course.
The winner of the war was Benito Juárez, a pure indigenous Mexican.
After Juárez (who died in office) came another couple of liberal presidents and then Porfirio Díaz, a liberal (also indigenous) who became increasingly conservative through the years and ended up being a dictator (hidden under a thin layer of formal democracy).
In the late "porfirismo", rich Mexico wanted to be like France. Our "belle epoque", with enormous income inequality.
Then came the Revolution. Madero, Villa, Zapata, and the sort. A rebellion mostly -again- from the middle classes who felt left behind. It was also a mass movement with people of all sorts.

The victory of the Revolution meant also the creation of a new ideology, "revolutionary nationalism", which has influenced every Mexican born from 1915 to 1990 , and many before and after that.

Part of this ideology is the concept of "cosmic race".
We Mexicans are the cosmic race, man. We're color blind (we brag about it, but subtly we ain't).
And anyone who thinks of him/herself as part of the cosmic race is part of it, too.
In political practice, the cosmic race is a mixed race, the mestizo or any similar combination.
This leaves out the very white or the pure indigenous people, with the very white having the advantage of being richer than the average Mexican and waaay richer than the indigenous population. Whites are more powerful in Mexico, mostly economically. But being blond or having a foreign-sounding last name is usually a political handicap.

When he talks about "pirrurris" or "whites", AMLO is pressing the "revolutionary nationalism" button. And also the economic-social resentfulness button, especially with the mestizo lower-middle class who feels left behind.

This may sound familiar to some Americans, I presume.
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Jan, 2018 08:20 pm
Some news to bump the thread:

The Independent candidates are moving on.
El Bronco, whom I described as a "Northern Populist" has handily surpassed the threshold of signatures, but still has problems with the so-called "dispersion requisite". He has 1% of the registered voters in only 6 states; he needs 17.

Margarita Zavala, the right wing former first-lady has also surpassed the threshold, and is in a similar situation. 6/17 needed states.

El Jaguar, the left-wing independent is near the threshold, and has already reached the 1% requisite in 7 states. Notably, he made it in Mexico City.

Marichuy Patricio is now very unlikely to make the threshold. I salute, though, the Zapatistas initiative to go by the polls, and not by the weapons.

Others definitely won't make it.

We may have up to three Independent candidates. El Bronco would take away votes mostly from the PRI and the Front (Meade and Anaya); Margarita would harm the Front (Anaya), most of all; and El Jaguar would affect the Front but mostly the coalition around AMLO.

--

Some Independent candidates for the Senate have surpassed their threshold.

Raúl González, former Olympic champion, for Nuevo León (He was director for Sports during the Salinas administration -1988-94-, but left the PRI.

Manuel Clouthier Jr, for Sinaloa (the son of a former PAN -Conservative- presidential candidate, who broke from his party).

José Kumamoto, 27, a true Independent, for Jalisco.
Kumamoto was the first Independent candidate to win a seat in a State legislature, has created a sort of grass-roots anti-party movement, called Wikipolítica and has championed the elimination of public expenditure for political parties.
Several of his young Wikipolítica friends have already secured a place in the ballot for the Chamber of Deputies, as Independents.
He may be anti-party but he's building a party.

---

Xavier González Zirión has secured a place in the ballot for governor of Mexico City.
He's a businessman, a drugstore owner, formerly of the PRI, close to the fake Greens (he's family with them).

--

Javier Lozano, a right-wing Senator from the PAN, left his party... it was expected that he'd join Margarita Zavala; instead, he has joined the Meade ranks, as a spokesman (Meade's spokesmen are multiplicating, which may be a sign of future trouble).
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Jan, 2018 08:52 pm
@fbaezer,
thank you , thank you and thank you

I keep coming back and re-reading

each pass through a little more is clearer to me

the history set-up really helped

not much about Mexican political history in Canadian schools in the 1960's and 1970's
glitterbag
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Jan, 2018 09:27 pm
@fbaezer,
Thank you for starting this thread, I don't really understand the political atmosphere in Mexico....but I barely recognize my own country. I am very keen on following your thread and am delighted you are sharing your viewpoint here. Thank you so much, GB
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Jan, 2018 10:03 pm
@ehBeth,
Almost nothing about Canadian history in Mexican schools in the 1960's and 1970's.
We kind of noticed that you changed your flag, then.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Jan, 2018 10:07 pm
The fresh faces of the José Pedro Kumamoto team candidates:
(Kumamoto is the tall guy with the pinkish shirt):

http://www.informavallarta.com/v1/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/bole-122.jpg
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jan, 2018 10:18 pm
@fbaezer,
I really love seeing young politicians.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 11 Jan, 2018 09:11 pm
The Russians are coming!
They want to influence the Mexican election, says the Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/01/11/a-mexican-presidential-candidate-is-getting-an-unexpected-boost-from-trump-and-putin/?utm_term=.93aac4107d05

I said it first, but in Spanish:

http://www.cronica.com.mx/notas/2017/1050350.html


(RT's American-Mexican John Ackerman is known here as John Wankerman Wink )
roger
 
  2  
Reply Thu 11 Jan, 2018 09:16 pm
@fbaezer,
You look different in a coat and tie.
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Jan, 2018 09:53 pm
@roger,
And 14 years older than when we met, Roger.
roger
 
  2  
Reply Thu 11 Jan, 2018 10:15 pm
@fbaezer,
Oh yeah. I keep forgetting.
 

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