Uh Oh... N. Korea troubles

That the DPRK has some nuclear weapons is widely accepted, but then it was also widely accepted that Iraq had stockpiles of terror weapons. Both nations were/are known to be capable of having such weapons, and both are repressive governments whose penchant for secrecy is well known. Is it possible that the DPRK has no nuclear weapons? Yes it is possible, though all indications are otherwise and officials of the DPRK have claimed to posses some nuclear capability. The DPRK has had the capability of producing a small number of atomic bombs for a number of years. Their devices are probably based on Soviet plutonium weapons copied from our Fat Man bomb used at Nagasaki. This would be a relatively inefficient weapon of perhaps 10-50 Kilotons, and probably relatively dirty as far as fallout. The DPRK has not tested any atomic weapon, nor do they have an adequate and appropriate testing facility. They might collaborate in a joint venture with Iran, and test there.

The DPRK's warheads, if they exist as most analysts believe, suffer from a couple major problems. The largest problem is delivery. DPRK missiles are based on old soviet designs, and most are variations on the SCUD. They've developed some mid-range rockets, and one test sent the missile into the North Pacific beyond Japan. There is a long-range multi-stage missile , but its never reached the test stage. The only stacking we know of from unclassified sources might have occured on a missile range in Iran (not fired). The weapons are probably large and heavy, this would make them hard to adapt to the missiles available to the DPRK. The DPRK hasn't got a manned bomber that could deliver a bomb much further than Japan, and its doubtful that such an attempt would be successful. The most dangerous would be if a nuclear weapon were transported by sea. The DPRK merchant marine is a joke, and we are watching their exports more carefully than most people know. Transferal of nuclear technology, knowledge, and some material is a possibility that we can not afford to minimize.

What is the danger that the DPRK might use a nuclear weapon against the US? directly against the U.S., or U.S. forces ... minimal. First, there is the delivery problem discussed above. Second, their weapons are untested and might well fail to pop. Third, What would the DPRK gain by striking Japan, Okinawa, or our Asian Fleet? The DPRK, at best, has fewer than 24 devices and can't easily deliver them. What would the reaction be if they launched? How many here, or anywhere in the world for that matter, object if the U.S. made a thermonuclear response? Actually, there aren't that many nuclear-worthy targets in the DPRK, but it's not a good idea to tug on superman's cape. Kim Jong-Il isn't stupid, nor is he a lunatic, so why would he commit suicide? Having the bomb is important to him as a matter of prestige, a card to give him negitiating strength, and as a potential product to peddle for some extra cash.

Seoul is within range of DPRK hard-emplaced artillery at the DMZ. Any outbreak of hostilities would result in many civilian casualties in Seoul. My grandchildren live north of the Han River, and that is the area most at risk. The risk of the ROK/US/UN forces striking the DPRK isn't great at this time. Could it happen? Sure. When deciding what military action to take on the Korean penninsula, the cost in civilian lives is one part of the equation. That has to be balanced against the probable cost of not committing military forces to action. The way it stands now, the costs outweigh the potential benefit. That could change. Say that we received credible intelligence that the DPRK is very close to having sophisticated thermonuclear warheads, and that their long-range missile is capable of striking San Francisco, or Sidney? What if we wake up tomorrow morning to the news that the PLA south across the Yalu in force?

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Asherman wrote:

Say that we received credible intelligence that the DPRK is very close to having sophisticated thermonuclear warheads, and that their long-range missile is capable of striking San Francisco, or Sidney?

This is the scary part. IMHO, it's a dangerous gamble to assume he's using 60 year old technology instead of 50 year old technology. We detonated our first H-Bomb in 1952 (10.4 mega-ton or 10,400 kilo-ton as compared to 15 kilo-ton Hiroshima or 21 kilo-ton Nagasaki Shocked

) The following year, Russia had figured out the H-bomb as well and tested a 300 kilo-ton weapon themselves. In 1961, the Soviets set off 50 Mega-ton H-bomb in the atmosphere. Now, with the aid of computer design techniques, why shouldn't we assume that Kim's scientists can duplicate soviet technology from before the dawn of computers?

Secondly, it is pretty much undisputed that Kim is responsible for at least 2,000,000 North Korean dead and possibly closer to 10,000,000. Who cries for them? Don't they count? For the life of me, I can't see the justice in waiting out a mass murdering monster like Kim.

Tell me Asherman, if you were in charge when Clinton and Carter teamed up to pay the terrorist's ransom, would you have done so? Or, would you have struck Yongbyon and took away the nuclear card that allows Kim to continue murdering today. Idea

(Feel free to rephrase my questions if there seems a bit of bias. :wink:)

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The nuclear weapon ambitions of DPRK and Iran provide convincing argument for ICBM-delivered, high-aiming precision, deep-penetrating mini-nukes, if you think about it. The known hardened artillery emplacements in DPRK, and assorted other known military targets of high value and suitable asset density in either country, offer attractive targets for similarly delivered conventional high-aiming-precision deep penetrators, too. If the wannabees are made to know and understand they can be dealt crippling, unanswerable damage, by means of both nuclear and conventional warheads, before they even know the warheads are on the way from Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Colorado, and Nebraska, and perhaps a few deep-sited submarines thousands of miles away from the target sites, they'll have a good deal more about which to be circumspect.

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As a general rule, one never pays blackmail or ransomes hostages. Both tend to encourage behavior that in the long run will endanger more lives than if the adversary were simply faced up to. Chamberlain thought that he could purchase "Peace in our time", by acceding to Hitler's demands. Instead the world gave the Nazis almost a decade headstart, and the price was paid in blood later. If Saddam had been removed at the conclusion of the Gulf War, our current agonies might have been avoided. The Saudis have been paying off the radical Islamic folks for a couple of generations, and now they are riding a very dangerous tiger.

What may be instructive is that when the bombers were ready to fly into the DPRK and "surgically" remove them, Kim Jong-Il promised at the last minute to completely abandon his nuclear ambitions if we would only feed his starving people. ROK and the US delivered food in massive quantities, but Jong-Il diverted most of it to the military and political elite. He moved his nuclear program out of the lime light, but apparently continued it out of sight. Once the danger of an American strike was removed, guess what, Jong Il became aggressive and threatening again. This was no surprise to anyone aware of how the DPRK operates and negotiates.

To answer your question directly. Even though a surgical strike carried a very high risk of expanded hostilities and massive civilian casualties in Seoul, I would have ordered it. The result would have been personally tragic for our family and In-Laws, but sometimes you have to do the hard thing. That's what we should expect, nay demand of our political and military leadership.

I think its safe to assume that the DPRK does not have thermonuclear warheads, nor capability. The technology necessary to produce a thermonulear weapon is very much more difficult than building a plutonium bomb. The Soviet Union advanced very quickly, but their advances owed more to nuclear technology stolen from the United States than from its own efforts. The old USSR was much more difficult to steal atomic secrets from the the U.S., and it shared very little of its atomic knowledge/technology with its clients. The Korean atomic program may have gotten some help, but most of what they are believe to have could easily come from more open sources. The USSR was a highly developed industrial nation with huge resources relative to the DPRK. North Korea is a very backward country, with limited natural resources, an economy that is constantly on the edge of collapse. The DPRK has limited money, and it spends so much on its conventional forces that there is little to spare. Besides, from Jong-Ils perspective its "better" to have several relatively crude and inexpensive atomic bombs rather than an expensive thrrmonuclear weapon that he still couldn't use. Its pretty safe to say that the DPRK has some atomic stockpile, no one can be sure how many. It's equally likely that the DPRK stockpile is made up of atomic bombs using plutonium designs somewhat improved over the Fat Man.

Delivery capability is a very big limiting factor for Jon-Il. His reach is still regional, and targets limited. He can't even be sure that his bomb designs will actually work until it has been tested. Testing is also a tough nut for him to crack. Nowhere on the Korean peninsula is appropriate for conducting nuclear tests. It would be difficult to send the test device to Iran without alerting the US, and possibly provoking the sort of showdown that Jong-Il would like to avoid. If he sent a test device to Iran, could he trust them not to peek and steal what he hopes to sell them?

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Thank you. One more question, if you don't mind. What's different today? I realize he has some advanced his weaponry now, but he's only going to become more dangerous isn't he? It seems to me, politically at least, he's more isolated now than ever he was. I agree with you that he's currently sane, and would prefer we call his hand while that's still the case. Sane people fold against impossible odds. He can't not consider Saddam's recent lifestyle change (not to mention Uday and Qusay's). Why not call his hand now, or in the near future?

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Well, for one thing the cat is now out of the bag. Before he was gearing up to produce atomic weapons, now he has them so the risks are higher while the payoff maybe even less. By acting then, a strong message would have been sent, and perhaps Saddam and some others would have been less audacious. When we paid off Jong-Il and felt relief that no blood would be shed, we sent a very different message to our enemies around the world. It took 9/11 to partially rouse the giant, and a strong message was sent ... with pretty good results I might add.

A significant part of our might is still involved in Southwest Asia. If the DPRK were to initiate conflict, we could pretty easily handle it. To launch an preemptive attack on the DPRK, would be another matter. Kim Jong-Il and his inner-circle, both political and military, would have to be taken out very, very fast. The political fallout in the US and around the world would not be pleasant, even it it were shown to be "necessary".

The DPRK is much more isolated and quarantined than Iraq was. It has a very strong, credible army, but a poor airforce and worse navy. It has a lot of guns pointed south, but for Jong-Il to fire one round would be suicide for him and his regime. His economy is still in the toilet, and it will almost certainly get worse before it gets better. The regime remains in control by sheer force and terror, coupled with the most comprehensive propaganda machine in the world apart from Madison Avenue. The Kim Dynasty is doomed. The situation is stable, and that's far better than instability. For the PRC to intervene would introduce an instability that might make it better to reponed militarily ... and in that case the risk to civilians in Seoul would be greatly reduced with combat redirected north.

There are times when fast, decisive action is best, and other times patience will deliver the victory for a lower blood price. Its not always easy to know which is the best course. Someone has to make the decision, let it be our best military and political minds. If you don't like the leadership, elect someone you like better.

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Thanks again

Asherman wrote:

If you don't like the leadership, elect someone you like better.

Oh, I think we could do better... but we weren't given the option this last time around. Ultimately, Kerry's idiotic stance on N. Korea was one of the biggest strikes against him in my book (calling for a resumption of bi-lateral talks Shocked

).

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Walter Hinteler wrote:

Just wondering, what you all think about the missing portraits - most of you were sure a couple of weeks ago that "something" was going on ...

And what do you think about what Selig Harrison said about a fortnight ago, namely that the US government exaggerated the threat from North Korea's nuclear programs, just as it manipulated intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

Walter - I've read a ton of stuff since the beginning of this thread on the "missing portraits" thing. Honestly, I think that any or all of the "reasons" could be true...except probably the one that predicted Kim's demise.

The most likely scenario is that he's subtly changing is "personality cult" in an attempt to groom his son for the leadership role.

You have to admit, though, that all the previous "clues"...the dropping the "Dear Leader", the pamphlets, the missing portraits...all were intriguing and hopeful signs there for a while.

I just finished reading Rogue State: How a Nuclear North Korea Threatens America and found it very depressing.

In the meantime, a recent Reuters piece explains why Bush wants the missile shield up and running ASAP.

On a lighter note, I found this website that gives even more insight into the "Real Dr. Evil". (It's slow loading even with my fast connection, so be patient).

I'll just end by saying I thank God that Bush (and company) is running the show, whatever happens with NK and I honestly believe that electing Kerry would have sent the wrong message to our enemies.

You really should see Team America, Walter Smile

I've heard Kim Jong Il is a cinema buff...it would be too funny if the folks at South Park have sent the creepy little Stalinist-wannabe over the edge Laughing

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JustWonders wrote:

On a lighter note, I found this website that gives even more insight into the "Real Dr. Evil". (It's slow loading even with my fast connection, so be patient).

No problems with loading that site, opening fast as any.

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Good to know, Walter Smile

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:wink:

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Quote:

NK's Kim Jong-nam Survives Assassination Attempt in Austria

By Park Song-wu
Staff Reporter
Kim Jong-nam, the eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, reportedly survived an assassination attempt in Austria thanks to the help of a secret agency in the European country, a source in Seoul said Sunday.

The National Intelligence Service in Seoul told The Korea Times that it is currently trying to confirm the news story.

But a news agency in Seoul quoted the source as saying that Kim, 33, was under a death threat from North Korean operatives in Austria in mid-November.

``The Austrian intelligence agency placed Kim Jong-nam under heavy security after perceiving the plot against Kim's life during his stay in the country,'' the source told Yonhap News Agency. ``I think the assassination attempt was linked to internal trouble in Pyongyang regarding who is to succeed Kim Jong-il.''

One of Kim Jong-nam's half-brothers _ Jong-chol, 23, and Jong-un, 20, who were mothered by Kim Jong-il's late concubine Ko Young-hee _ has frequently been cited by North Korea experts as the possible heir to the 62-year-old leader in Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-nam reportedly lost favor with his father in May 2001 when he was deported by Japanese authorities to China after entering Tokyo with a fake visa.

source: The Korea Times

Quote:

Austria Denies Plot to Kill Kim's Son

SEOUL (Reuters) - Austrian security forces foiled an attempt to assassinate a son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during a European trip in November, Yonhap News reported on Sunday, but Austrian authorities denied any incident.

The report of the plot against Kim Jong-nam came amid persistent rumors of internal political strife in the reclusive communist state and within the nation's first family itself.

Citing a source familiar with North Korean affairs, the South Korean news agency said the failed plot had been planned by North Koreans favoring other of Kim Jong-il's sons as his eventual successor.

"Kim ran into an attempt to assassinate him during his visit to Europe in mid-November, but the Austrian intelligence agency had received a tip in advance and protected him," Yonhap quoted the source as saying. "The attempt was made by anti-Kim (Jong-nam) groups in North Korea ."

Austria's Interior Ministry confirmed Kim Jong-nam was in Vienna for two days about two weeks ago and said he was guarded during his stay by state anti-terrorism agents, but added this was routine for foreign dignitaries.

"There were no incidents. We are not aware of anything like this reported plot," spokesman Rudolf Gollia said.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service could not confirm the report but said Seoul's government was checking it.

In November, global financial markets were swept by rumors that Kim Jong-il had been assassinated or overthrown.

At the same time, diplomats and officials were reported as saying that some of Kim's portraits had been removed from public places. The North's official KCNA news agency later denied this.

Long seen as his 62-year-old father's heir apparent, Kim Jong-nam's star is thought to have waned after he was caught trying to sneak into Japan on a false passport in 2001.

Although a thick veil conceals the doings of the North's ruling dynasty, Kim Jong-il -- who succeeded his father and state founder Kim Il-sung in 1994 -- is believed to have had children with at least three wives.

Korea watchers say the older Kim now appears to favor Swiss-educated Kim Jong-chul, who is in his 20s.

While isolated, impoverished Pyongyang introduced market reforms in mid-2002, many of its people rely on foreign aid and energy shortages mean that its industry barely works.

The North is also in a standoff with regional powers over its nuclear aims. It is under growing pressure from the United States, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea to rejoin stalled six-nation talks aimed at ending its atomic weapons ambitions.

source: Reuters via Yahoo! News

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Thanks Walter.

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Good catch Walter. At first blush this looks as if it might be a rumor that fell on hopeful ears. It the reported incident was a couple of weeks ago, its strange that it didn't surface earlier and in European papers. Why would Austria deny and hide an assasination attempt? I don't doubt that Il-nam was there, DPRK dignitaries like to hang-out in Austria and Switzerland. My last information was that Il-Nam was being a playboy in Southeast Asia, but that was over a month ago.

Jong-Il is certainly capable of ordering the murder of his oldest son, if he finds it useful for other purposes. Il-Nam appeared, in spite of questions about his legitimacy, to be Jong-Il's designated successor until he was caught being in Japan illegally. Korean culture is tilted heavily in favor of the eldest son, and Il-Nam may still have some residual influence in the power structure. It would certainly similify things for one of the other sons to take-over if Il-Nam were dead. An assasination order might concievably come from either of his younger half-brothers.

If there isn't a sound basis for the Korea Times article, the whole story may come to nothing. On balance and at this time, I think we should regard the story as a rumor.

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Mosta what comes outta DPRK fits into the rumor category, even when satellites see the smoke and seismographs record the shock.

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OCCOM BILL wrote:

Asherman wrote:
Say that we received credible intelligence that the DPRK is very close to having sophisticated thermonuclear warheads, and that their long-range missile is capable of striking San Francisco, or Sidney?

This is the scary part. IMHO, it's a dangerous gamble to assume he's using 60 year old technology instead of 50 year old technology. We detonated our first H-Bomb in 1952 (10.4 mega-ton or 10,400 kilo-ton as compared to 15 kilo-ton Hiroshima or 21 kilo-ton Nagasaki ) The following year, Russia had figured out the H-bomb as well and tested a 300 kilo-ton weapon themselves. In 1961, the Soviets set off 50 Mega-ton H-bomb in the atmosphere. Now, with the aid of computer design techniques, why shouldn't we assume that Kim's scientists can duplicate soviet technology from before the dawn of computers?

All the bombs you listed are very heavy, and North Korea would have no ability to deliver any of them if they had them.

(And the bomb the Soviets tested in 1953 was not really an H-bomb as the term is usually understood, although it did use fusion to get a larger yield. They tested a true H-bomb in late 1955.)

The main reason that we can be confident that North Korea doesn't have more advanced weapons is because you need data from nuclear tests to build them, and North Korea has never done tests.

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Welcome to our little discussion table oralloy. I think if you read back over some of the earlier postings you will see that several of the folks here have a fine appreciation for the DPRK's capabilities, both nuclear and conventional. Though many, I among them, believe that the DPRK has some nuclear warheads no one is suggesting that they are thermonuclear. Without testing even detonation of relatively crude devices is only a probability. We've commented many times on the delivery problems that the DPRK still has.

However, the DPRK has an untested longrange multistage missle that could probably deliver a warhead in the 10-20 KT range. We should be concerned that the DPRK not continue to advance its nuclear, nor its delivery capabilities. The DPRK/Iran connection is of concern and I'm sure is being carefully watched.

The bottom line at this time is that the DPRK's nuclear stockpile is more a negotiating item than it is a real threat. Far more dangerous is the Pakistan-Indian confrontation over Kasimer. If Iran joins the nuclear club it would be very destabilizing and increase the threat of a more general conflict in South and Southwest Asia.

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Asherman wrote:

Welcome to our little discussion table oralloy.

Thanks.

Asherman wrote:

Without testing even detonation of relatively crude devices is only a probability.

North Korea would have the design that China was so free with some years back.

If they followed those directions to the letter, they could make a reliable 25kt implosion device that only weighs half a ton.

Of course, I am not sure how much substitution plutonium for uranium would alter the result, but they should still have some sort of reasonable yield, even if they wouldn't know precisely what it was.

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dlowan wrote:

That is fer sure, thank goddess. We've had people here wanting to nuke Afghanistan - (to kill Bin Laden), nuke North Korea,

I wanted to see Kandahar nuked in retaliation to 9/11....

I wouldn't want to nuke North Korea unless they made a massive invasion of the South and our troops were too preoccupied in Iraq to stop them by other means (or unless we caught them supplying Osama with one of their nukes).

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NK Ready for War Since Last April

By Park Song-wu
Staff Reporter

North Korea enhanced its war readiness in April last year, putting emphasis on self-defense, according to top-secret documents signed by Kim Jong-il, the Stalinist country¡¯s leader.

The North¡¯s move came one year after the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003.

Kim issued a two-page directive and a 31-page bylaw on April 7, demanding the Workers¡¯ Party, the military and all people assume wartime readiness, the Seoul government confirmed Wednesday.

The Dear Leader ordered people to be ready to mobilize all possible resources within 24 hours following the outbreak of war, increasing the number of available troops through recruiters in each province, city and county.

The Seoul government said it was scrutinizing the documents, which were recently obtained by a local daily, the Kyunghyang Shinmun.

``The North might have released the directive after updating some parts of it to reflect developing situations such as the war in Iraq,¡¯¡¯ a government official in Seoul said. ``But every country has emergency plans for war situations.¡¯¡¯

The official, who asked not to be named, added that Pyongyang must have been very concerned about the possibility of a pre-emptive strike by the U.S.

``The U.S. is trying to suffocate us by fanning nuclear suspicions,¡¯¡¯ the introduction of the bylaw said. ``The U.S. will take advantage of the nuclear issue as a reason to invade us.¡¯¡¯

One of the main purposes of the directive, which divided the war into the three stages of defense, attack and drawn-out warfare, is to educate North Koreans on how to find safety when the country is struck by biochemical weapons, experts in Seoul said.

The North¡¯s police and intelligence authorities plan to install command centers in underground tunnels around the nation and give orders to the people based on information gathered by unmanned reconnaissance planes and satellites, according to the documents.

The Pyongyang regime is not believed to have such cutting-edge information gathering systems.

The North reportedly has around 8,200 underground facilities, including 180 munitions factories. The U.S. plans to deploy bunker busters _ small, earth-penetrating nuclear weapons _ to South Korea this year, according to the Center for American Progress, a U.S.-based nonpartisan think tank.

North Koreans are first required to take portraits and statues of the Kim family to safe locations such as underground facilities, where the regime has already allotted space for these icons, according to the directives.

Kim, the central military commission chairman, also commanded his military to boost troop numbers by recruiting South Korean volunteers if the South is ``liberated¡¯¡¯ by its People¡¯s Army during the war.

It is not known whether the directive mentioned the possibility of pre-emptive strikes against South Korea or Japan as the documents omit 172 clauses from the section on military operations.

In issuing the directive, Kim used the title of Central Military Committee Chairman of the Workers¡¯ Party, a position which had been left vacant since the death of Kim Il-sung, the founding father of the North, in July 1994.

The committee was the top decision-making body on military affairs before the Pyongyang government revised its Constitution in September 1998 to give the commission the highest possible status.

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200501/kt2005010515502210440.htm

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I found the above story and link on a Korean blog I've been reading for quite a while now. The blogger (who lives and works in South Korea) states:

I might also suggest that in addition to possibly being North Korean disinformation, one shouldn't rule out the possibility that South Korean intelligence played around with the document to impress onto Washington North Korea's "defensive" intentions. Who the hell knows with stuff like this. Surely not I.

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Uh Oh... N. Korea troubles

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