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Okay, Dems, What Went Wrong? And How Can We Fix It?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 07:16 am
Lola is correct that the proper context in which to address this issue, at least on this thread, is to consider it in the light of a recovery strategy for Democrats following the election. Here are extracts from Lola's quoted piece above from "People for the American Way", which I believe encapsulates their argument;

Quote:
If the President nominates someone who shares the extremist judicial philosophy of Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas - as he has repeatedly said he would do - he will make a mockery of his professed desire to earn all Americans' trust and support. …

In addition, we must challenge the triumphalist rhetoric of Religious Right leaders. It is true that turnout efforts targeting millions of conservative Christians contributed to the victories of President Bush, hard-right members of Congress, and anti-gay ballot initiatives. But it is wrong to view the election outcome as a sign that a majority of Americans accept the Right's claims that "values" equates to a right-wing social and economic agenda. Polls show that most Americans do not embrace the Religious Right's agenda, and that war and terrorism concerns led many voters to support the President even though they disagree with much of his agenda…

People For the American Way and People For the American Way Foundation are especially well qualified to expose the real agenda behind that rhetoric and help mainstream and progressive Americans take back the discourse on values.


This is, of course a solicitation for contributions to pay the salaries of the activists who make up this organization, so it should be evaluated in that light. The argument consists of three points;
1. Justices Scalia and Thomas - and those who hold similar views on contemporary issues - are extremists.
2. While the leaders of the ?'Religious Right' were able to increase "conservative Christian" voter turnout in support of the President and Conservative members of Congress, the majority of Americans do not support their agenda or the ?'values' issues they advocate. Only concerns about the war and terrorism led them to support the President.
3. People for the American Way are well-qualified to oppose the ?'Religious Right' and expose its real agenda to an American majority that naturally opposes them. Send Money.

OK by me if the Democrats buy this advice - I think it will keep them in the minority.

I believe labeling Scalia and Thomas as "extremists" requires a very significant relaxation of Lola's definition of just who is the extremist enemy here. There are lots of people who are neither fundamentalist Protestants, Evangelical, or even particularly religious at all who generally align themselves with ideas put forward by these two gentlemen.

The second point appears to deny what most analysts have come to regard as one of the basic outcomes of the recent election - namely that the majority of Americans are truly concerned about the so called ?'values agenda', and that it, in addition to concerns about the war, and a sense that Kerry wasn't quite right for the Presidency, were among the principal factors leading to the Bush victory. Moreover this denial flatly contradicts Lola's suggestion that there is something particularly ominous in the political activities of the leaders of the "Religious Right" - it says clearly they don't have the support of the majority of Americans, as ?'confirmed by polls'.

I find an element of "profiling" here that is more than a little hypocritical. Moreover the demonizing and denial implicit in all of this does not suggest to me that Democrats will learn anything useful or beneficial to them from the results of the election. "The people have spoken and the people are wrong - we must educate them better", does not sound to me like an effective precursor to the development of a new, successful strategy. Perhaps I will send a contribution to People for the American Way.
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 08:36 am
Quote:
Perhaps I will send a contribution to People for the American Way.


Excellent idea Smile After reading that missive (twice) I'll make it my mission to encourage every liberal I know to support them as well. Wow...talk about "not getting" it.
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Ethel2
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 12:38 pm
I woke up this morning in a rather bad mood. It didn't take me long to decide what I thought that bad mood was all about.

I said, to myself, "Lola, why are you exerting so much energy on a few people on an internet site?"

"Well," I said, "it's fun."

But the more I thought about it, I decided that it's really not that fun, not enough for the effort I'm expending. Plus, we're talking about a subject that I don't really think is funny or simply a good intellectual exercise.

So then I said, "well, then, if you're going to expend that much energy, why don't you do something that will make a difference?"

"Good question," I told myself. "I think I'll find a good outlet for my energy. PFAW may be a good place to start..........or maybe a similar group with people who are doing more than talking about what to do next."

Has anyone here seen that ad? It's often on CNN about the group of stock brokers sitting around the lunch table at a fancy restaurant and one of them starts choking. The other four who aren't choking begin a debate about what would be the best course of action for the choking problem. Finally some stock broker from another table gets up and puts his arms around the guy and pops out the obstruction in the guy's throat. The punch line is something like, "we do more than just talk about it."

This was my association as I was thinking about my very bad mood. Why am I spending so much time on this thread, while we all scratch our a$$es? So, I decided to stop it.

The data Thomas says he needs in order to consider my perspective seriously will take a lot of energy and time collecting.....

So if I'm going to go to that much trouble, I may as well do it with people who have gone to the same trouble I have to make up their minds. They've struggled with it enough to feel comfortable with their convictions. Why try to influence a few retired military officers or others who have the time and inclination to sit around and and do nothing but argue? Why not maximize my efforts? I've made up my mind well enough to take some action, so I'll find others who will too.

Maybe you detect a little disappointment in my voice. If you do, it's because I am disappointed. Sorry for being rude just now.......but not sorry enough to delete it.

Just about the only thing of value I've taken from this discussion of the past few days is that Dems do have to stop saying the people on the other side are supid. (Of course, it wouldn't hurt if the Republicans did the same.....just replace stupid for sinful.) We have to do the opposite. We have to start recognizing just how very smart they are. And then we have to do something about it.

So I'm off to the big wide world, Dads and guys. And I'm not talking about just sending some money. (Of course they need money, george, it takes money to get anything of significance done. Just because they're raising funds doesn't invalidate their message or goals..........but never mind, I don't have to convince you.)

So I'm taking a vacation from these political threads. The fun of it is gone. I'll be around to play in other ways that involve more immediate gratification and have mostly to do with a generalized debauchery. But for political discussion and activity, I'm going to get up and actually do something.

See you boys at the cafe.............. And I promise not to be so disappointed that I'll be dangerous there........really, you can trust me. I'll be good.............. promise. :wink:
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 02:32 pm
Lola wrote:
So I'm taking a vacation from these political threads.

Sad to see you go, but do enjoy your vacation. Smile
0 Replies
 
Piffka
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 02:54 pm
Lola -- You have always been a voice of reason for me, and if I don't post that, it is only because I would be repetiously saying "I agree," "Yes, you're so right!" and "Obviously, you have thought about this a lot and make loads of sense."

That doesn't add much to the debate, so I've let it go, but I've been silently cheering you on.

Piffka
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 03:01 pm
lola dear, I am starting a prayer group to speed your recovery.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 03:11 pm
I'm collecting the money to support Dys' group!
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Einherjar
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 03:20 pm
In the short time I have been here I have learned not to take people leaving very seriously. They usually don't stay awqay very long, and some people never leave at all. (they fail to do more than just talk about it :wink: )

So BYE Lola, and don't take too long to change your mind, we very much enjoy your company.
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 03:45 pm
Lola wrote:
So I'm taking a vacation from these political threads.


I love to see these Swan Songs, especially when they apply for only about a week. I am fascinated with what compels someone to write so lengthy an explanation of why he or she no longer wants to write lengthy postings in an internet forum, and I conclude that it is the the same reason that brings such folks to these forums in the first place: A desire and/or need to announce their identities.

If one is devoting a sizeable amount of one's free time to these boards for the purpose of making a difference, then, clearly, it is not time well spent and there are a myriad of more potentially productive avenues to follow.

Participating in this forum should be enjoyable, irrespective of how you may define enjoyable. If it is not, it is a waste of precious time to remain engaged here.

Good luck in the Real World and vayo con Dios
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 04:17 pm
Lola is OK - she just put a good deal of effort into some posts in the last few pages and lost patience before the issues came to closure. No one is cool all of the time.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 07:09 pm
And I came in for some intellectual fodder and am forced to consider what use a prayer group would have with money. Oh well, I was tired of world hunger and the Middle East crisis anyway.
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 07:17 pm
So have another falafel, turn on the Fox and join a prayer group. It's not easy saving the world.
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Diane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2004 08:34 pm
Gee, I know lots of poor (in every sense of the word) who send in money to prayer groups on TV. You know, those groups where the women wear as much mascara as Tammy Baker and swoon as the men yell to God to save these sinners and send money NOW!

Lola, come back when you've cooled off. These threads need you.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 05:56 pm
I found this article very instructive, hope you do too - it's making a lot of sense:

Quote:
It Wasn't Just (Or Even Mostly) the 'Religious Right'

New Beliefnet Analysis: Catholics and moderately religious voters were just as important as very religious 'Born Agains'


By Steven Waldman and John Green

The congealing conventional wisdom is that super-religious, born-again Protestants?-a.k.a. the religious right?-carried President Bush to victory in 2004. A new Beliefnet analysis of the election data reveals this is only half right.

There was indeed a flood of evangelicals to the polls-?-but it now appears that the shift in the Catholic vote was just as important and, in crucial states, probably more so.

In addition, Bush also made gains among the moderately religious-?-and the secular-?-not just the heavy-duty religious voters who attend religious services weekly or more.

Bush's strong performance among Catholics, it turns out, was crucial to his victory. Bush won Catholics 52%-47% this time, while Al Gore carried them 50%-46% in 2000. If Kerry had done as well as Gore, he would have had about a million more votes nationwide. According to Gallup Polls, only one Democrat since 1952 (Walter Mondale in 1984) lost the Catholic vote by this large a margin.

The Catholic impact was starker in key states. In Ohio, Bush got 55% of the Catholic vote in 2004 compared to just under 50% of them in 2000. That means a shift of 172,000 votes into the Republican column. Bush won the state by just 136,000 votes this year.

In Florida, Catholics made up 26% of the electorate in 2000. This year, they made up 28%. In 2000, 54% of Catholics went for Bush; in 2004, 57% of them voted for him. The combination of those two factors meant a gain of 400,000 voters in the Sunshine State?-about Bush's margin of victory.

Bush also did better among Hispanic Catholics, getting 42% of the vote in 2004 compared to 31% in 2000.

During the campaign, polls showed the Catholic vote shifting back and forth between the candidates. Kerry's standing improved after the third debate when he spoke about his faith. But President Bush's views on abortion and gay marriage are more in line with official church teachings, and the campaign made the Catholic vote a high priority.

Another surprising finding: Bush did not dramatically improve his standing among people who go to church weekly or more often.

There was a big increase in the portion of the electorate made up of weekly churchgoers in the South?--and yet nationally the figure didn't budge, indicating that regular churchgoers actually played a smaller role outside the South.

Here again, the pattern was apparent in two decisive battleground states. In 2000, 43% of Ohio voters were people who attended church weekly or more often. In 2004, that percentage actually declined to 40%*?--meaning regular churchgoers were, relatively, less important in the close outcome.

The same thing happened on a larger scale in Florida. In 2000, 41% of voter attended services weekly or more often. This year, the portion dropped to 35%.

Nationally, Bush did improve his standing among those who attend worship services monthly instead of weekly (his share of this vote rose from 46% to 50%.)* A possible explanation: contrary to the common stereotype, many religious people, including "born-again" Christians do not attend religious services weekly. It was with this group that GOP outreach efforts may have borne the most fruit.

Amusingly, one big improvement in Bush 's performance actually came from those who never go to church. He won 36% of this group compared to 32% last time.*

While it is certainly not the case that Bush rode to office on a wave of atheism and secularism, these patterns reveal the complexity of Bush coalition?-it was not just the "religious right."

None of this is to suggest that white church-going evangelicals didn't play a significant role. They were probably particularly important in growing Bush's overall popular vote and in some close swing states. A good example is Iowa where where close to a third of the voters this time were white born again protestants.

Though changes in the wording of exit polls make it difficult to directly compare the evangelical vote this election and last. In addition, the evangelicals who did vote went for Bush by a greater margin-78% rather than 72% in 2000. The improved performance among those evangelicals who voted proved to be just as important as the turnout.

The combination of those two factors-the higher evangelical turnout and the greater margin-meant that Bush did beat his Karl Rove's much publicized target of drawing in four million evangelical voters.

That success didn't lead to an electoral college landslide for Bush for two reasons. First, a disproportionate share of the surge appears to be in the southern states that he already had locked up.

Second, evangelical turnout was at least partly offset by increased turnout from pro-Kerry groups. Kerry got roughly two million more votes from 18-29-year-olds than Gore did in 2000. He received approximately 1.6 million more votes from African Americans than Gore did. Churchgoers voted in greater numbers-but so did secular voters, and, in fact, nearly everbody else.

There is much we still don't know about the religious vote, and it should be noted that this analysis was based on the very same exit polls that are now being criticized. But it is clear that the Bush victory was not just the result of white, regular church-going, conservative, born-again Protestants.

What's more, it's not yet known why Catholics might have shifted to Bush and to what extent "moral values"-whether in general or related to abortion or gay marriage-might have played a role.

What is clear is that the Bush campaign worked assiduously to win the Catholic vote. "If we lose any of the Catholic vote, we lose the election," said Deal Hudson, Bush's Catholic coordinater, said during the campaign. The campaign appointed 50,000 Catholic "team leaders" at the local level, and the president made a point of visiting the Pope (in June 2004) and putting his picture on the campaign website with a headline "Catholics for Bush." Pro-life groups ran TV ads attacking Kerry's support for abortion "in all nine months of pregnancy." Efforts by liberal Catholic groups and the Kerry campaign were puny by comparison.

The findings do potentially affect the internal discussion beginning in Democratic circles over how to win back the White House. Appealing to middle-of-the-road and Hispanic Catholics, as well as moderate protestants, may be the key to crafting a new, winning agenda.

Other factors beyond religion played a major role. Bush's surprising victory among seniors and his increased strength among Hispanics were among the most important.



Steven Waldman is Editor-in-Chief of Beliefnet. John Green is a professor of political science, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute at University of Akron, author of numerous books on religion and politics, and a Beliefnet Contributing Editor.

*Correction: Statistics for weekly churchgoers in Ohio, and non-church-attenders and monthly church attenders nationally, have been revised since an earlier version of this article. In no case did it alter the basic conclusion.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 06:28 pm
Quote:
Another surprising finding: Bush did not dramatically improve his standing among people who go to church weekly or more often.

There was a big increase in the portion of the electorate made up of weekly churchgoers in the South?--and yet nationally the figure didn't budge, indicating that regular churchgoers actually played a smaller role outside the South.

[..] a disproportionate share of the surge appears to be in the southern states that he already had locked up.


On an aside, this bit was useful for me in particular, because it helped me clear something up.

In my "final" analysis here, I concluded that "it's hard to discern a strong impact of newly mobilised conservative Christians in this list [of states where Bush won most and least]".

But one of the three PS's I never got round to posting was going to note that I did come across one counter-indication that I couldn't properly explain.

The counter-indication in question was the striking regional pattern that showed how the last state-level opinion polls "had on average been pretty much on-target in 13 of 16 non-Southern battleground states, but had Bush's support considerably underestimated in all six contested states in or near the South."

This article now suggests that this makes total sense, since in the South there was in fact a clearly boosted turnout of weekly churchgoers. So the theory that Bush profited from a last-minute mobilisation surge of devout Christians who would not have shown up in the polls (if only because those who didn't vote last time were often not counted as "likely voters") did hold true for the Southern states.

Its just that because the same did not happen elsewhere - because, in fact, elsewhere the share of weekly churchgoers in the electorate went down because other groups were mobilised even more strongly - this didn't show up in the national exit polls. The numbers simply cancelled each other out.

A surge in turnout of devout Christians in the South might thus be said to have helped make the difference in states like AR, NC, perhaps MO or VA. But because their numbers if anything made less of an impact than in 2000 elsewhere, the role of other crucial voting blocks like Catholics, seniors or national security-focused seculars was more important in most of the real battleground states, the ones in the Midwest and West that attracted all the journalistic-analytic attention.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 06:40 pm
Nimh, While the image of the Television huckster Evangelist is generally associated with the South, the fact is the so-called Evangelical movement is fairly well dispersed and not much more prevalent in (say) Alabama than in (say) Missouri or Ohio.

I believe the Evangelicals are merely a convenient straw man that enables the Democrats to delude themselves into believing that most "right thinking" people support their agenda. While a large minority of the population certainly does support them, the fact is that the majority of Americans - the non-loonie ones - opposes them.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 06:47 pm
On the other hand, mebbe there's a real shift in Democratic Party perception goin' on here. Mebbe they're comin' 'round to the idea it ain't All Bush's Fault, but that its All God's Fault. Twisted Evil
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 07:17 pm
Did you actually read the article, georgeob1? (Or my post, for that matter ...?)

Askin' just because your reply seems to oddly concern things I never said, and not concern anything in specific that I did say ... Hell, I never even talked about Evangelicals in my post ...

Let me summarize again, then. The article above is from Beliefnet. It already includes the info that yes, evangelical voters are a factor across the states. They also probably turned out in greater numbers this time than before, and in any case voted for Bush more often than in 2000; but, since turnout increase was commonplace among many different groups, "evangelical turnout was at least partly offset by increased turnout from pro-Kerry groups".

Opting for a different focus, namely on those who attend Church at least weekly, the article notes (as Timber and I have, before) that their proportion in the overall, national electorate remained stable compared to 2000. But it also notes that there was a big increase in their portion of the electorate in the South - an aberration from the national trend. In fact, considering their share of the electorate nationally didn't budge, their share of it outside the South must actually have decreased (for example because of an even more increased turnout of other groups).

It was this latter factoid - that those attending Church weekly or more often (what I called "devout Christians") represented a surging share of the electorate in the South and not elsewhere, that I connected to an observation I had made earlier. Namely, that the last state polls out on average had been pretty much right everywhere except in the South, where they had significantly underestimated Bush's support. Seemed logical enough to deduce from the correlation that in the South, a (last-minute) increased mobilisation of the devoutly religious might have played a significant role in boosting Bush's numbers.

Echoing the article I also observed, finally (as I had before), that this however was of only limited relevance, since the phenomenon mostly concerned states that were safely Republican in any case and most of the closest battleground states were elsewhere - where other, equally shifting voter blocks (like Catholics, seniors and national security-focused seculars) were more important in turning the elections towards Bush.

<shrugs>
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 07:57 pm
nimh

The politics of division.

Since the last election, GOP strategists have been open regarding the need/wish to increase their percentage of the catholic and jewish votes. They failed with the jewish vote, but succeeded with the Catholic vote, as the analysis shows.

How did they achieve that? First off, we ought to assume that some percentage of the catholic gain was a consequence of the overall gain on terrorism/security issues which seems to have affected most electoral populations.

Secondly, organization, as the analysis shows.

But third, by forwarding a particular type of divisiveness though abortion and gay issues.

Now, let me tell you what I really think. Both of these issues, security and social, are driven by the promotion of fear. Fear of instability. Fear of change. Fear of the other or the alien.

And the solution to these fears is to trust in Authority - the government, the priest, the scripture, the literal. It is an easy and welcome relinquishment of an already shallow commitment to self-governance.
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Nov, 2004 08:18 pm
I heard on the radio that some Dems got together and pasted some suggestions on the DNC door in Washingtol ala Martin Luther...
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