0
   

Okay, Dems, What Went Wrong? And How Can We Fix It?

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 09:47 pm
(OK, long post. But I'm getting to wrapping up my conclusions about these elections. I'll split the post in two, 'k?)


Any Dem or anyone else still wondering where Bush got that 3 million vote lead from he still lacked in 2000, might want to take a look at this list here.

It's the list of states where Bush most increased his share of the vote compared to 2000.

1. Hawaii +8%
2. Rhode Island +7%
-. Alabama +7%
4. Connecticut +6%
-. New Jersey +6%
-. Tennessee +6%
-. Oklahama +6%

8. New York +5%
-. Nebraska +5%
10. Massachusetts +4%
-. Delaware +4%
-. Arizona +4%
-. West-Virginia +4%
-. Louisiana +4%
-. Kansas +4%
-. Utah +4%

Looks like Timber was right; it's hard to discern a strong impact of newly mobilised conservative Christians in this list.

On the other hand, there is a whole bunch of states around New York in the list. The 9/11 effect, I presume. The national security issue, after all.

(See this post for a little map that shows where Bush won most and where he won least.)

Add to the above, this post, where I listed how Kerry measured up, in terms of the percentage of the vote he got, to Gore's 2000 results re: the various exit poll demographics.

Kerry's biggest losses were among:

- Those without high school education (-9%), yes, but otherwise:
- Latinos (-9%),
- Jews (-5%)
- Working women (-7%),
- inhabitants of large cities (-11%)
- inhabitants of small cities (-8%)
.

Again, not exactly the picture of bible-thumping fundies yielding Bush the elections.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 09:56 pm
(part 2)

Of course, this is not a zero-sum game. Turnout increased significantly. So it wasn't just about how each group divided itself up between Bush and Kerry - it was as much about how many people of each group were mobilised to turn out.

This was what I had focused on thus far. After all, the exit polls also show Kerry winning both liberals and moderates and actually doing better among both groups than Gore, while Bush only increased his share of the vote among conservatives - but those, however, constituting a bigger share of the voters than in 2000.

Both those things had made me think Bush had a newly mobilised influx of conservative voters to thank for his victory. They were echoed by how Republicans this time also made up a larger share of the voters - and Democrats a smaller share.

The tricky thing with such a comparison, however, is that it's something else again that's not a zero-sum game. You don't know whether the Republicans succeeded in turning out more conservatives than in 2000, or whether perhaps simply more voters defined themselves as conservative. People might have shifted their self-perception after 9/11, after all - existing voters, who in 2000 dubbed themselves moderate and now, returning to the polls, call themselves conservative.

Picking up on all exit poll categories that are comparable between 2000 and 2004, the categories of voters that now constituted a larger share of the electorate provides a very mixed picture, in any case:

- women,
- not-working women,
- not married,
- no children,
- Latino/African-American,
- over 45,
- over $100,000 income,
- Republican,
- conservative,
- no gun in household
- big city
- suburb
- small town

Again, apart from the increase of Reps and conservatives, not exactly a picture that suggests new hordes of Christian fundies turning out to the polls. In fact, as Timber already posted earlier, those who attend Church weekly constituted no greater a share of the voters than in 2000. And those from rural areas, for example, constituted 7% less of the electorate than in 2000. Whites constituted 4% less of the voters than in 2000. Those whose household included someone who possessed a gun constituted 7% less of the electorate than in 2000. Inhabitants of big cities on the other hand constituted 4% more of the electorate.

Changes in turnout or overall change in society (perhaps there are simply fewer families with guns now)?

Be what it may, all of the above in any case greatly changed my outlook on what exactly lost the Democrats the election.

I'm not buying the 'increased mobilisation of Christian conservatives' theory anymore. The only indicators that point to that are the increase of Republicans and conservatives at the polls; but those are not accompanied by any of the other social indicators one would associate with devout Christians.

At the moment I'm hesitantly going with the theory that Bush made big inroads among the multicultural urban crowd, for example around NY, suggesting that national security was the main mobiliser after all -- and that those inroads are illustrated rather than explained by an increase of voters defining themselves as Republican and conservative as well.

What this means for the Dems is that the answer isn't as simple as Christianising themselves and giving in on abortion in order to appease those Southern christians. It's stopping the modest, but significant move to the right of their own electorate.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 09:59 pm
I know, that was long.

But I think it's pretty much all I have to say about the elections anymore - this is pretty much where my peering at the numbers brought me ... full stop. (And about time, too.)

(That is, if I dont change my mind again after all, of course Razz )
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 10:07 pm
Oh Nimh, you are much appreciated for your efforts and expertise. Without you and Timber the speculation would have been much further off the mark. I hope you decide not to hang it up now--there's so many more demographics to explore. We haven't even touched on the investor vs the non-investor class, unions vs small business, etc. and all kinds of stuff like that.

I wouldn't have thought there was a small business owner on the continent who would hae voted for Kerry, but the day after the election I ran into small business owner mourners on my very first appointment and now am curious about the demographics on that.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 10:13 pm
Nimh,

A reasoned, reasonable and persuasive analysis. My compliments to you.

I'll separately deal with the question of how one so capable of patient, objective, reasoned analysis of complex matters could end up with such awful political affiliations.

In reference to your comments, I have the strong impression (and that's all it is) that the self-identification of voters being canvassed is itself a quite vartiable thing. You cited this possibility, and I believe it is possibly significant, particularly in combination with a higher than normal voter turout.

The various sub populations that are laid out in these analyses are in general a complex, overlapping partial map of the voting population. One must deal with both sampling error and all the second order Bayesian effects as well. Given the relatively close margins there may, in effect, be no significant figures in many of the deductions.

However I fully agree with the soundness of your deduction that the outcome was certainly not a direct consequence of Evangelical voters or any other like single issue or group either.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 10:33 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I'll separately deal with the question of how one so capable of patient, objective, reasoned analysis of complex matters could end up with such awful political affiliations.

LOL Razz

I must admit I'm beginning to worry a bit about only ever getting any compliments from the board's conservatives ... (kidding :wink: )

edgarblythe wrote:
When some idiot accuses me of being anti American just because I dissent from the administration's policies I feel I am being attacked by a very dangerous person, the true subversive in the thread. That sort of person prefers dictatorship over freedom.

Edgar, did you actually read that article?

Its use of the word "anti-american" may have been provocative, but it had nothing whatsoever to do with "dissent from the administration's policies".

It was used to illustrate an agitatedly expressed distaste with the American population - as in, people who say stuff like "Many Americans have nothing between their ears. Americans are fat, lazy, and stupid."

Me, I'm fine with people saying such stuff, actually. I might well say it myself if I'm in the mood for it Razz. But it's not gonna win you any elections, is it?

The author's point is well-taken, I'd assume - anyone who sets out towards the "heartland" with the notion that the people who live there are ignorant, bigoted chauvinists, is not very likely to succeed in winning much sympathy there.

In that sense, liberals are digging their own grave by talking that way, as if those midwesterners who this time went Bush are not reading right along and getting turned off ...
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2004 10:40 pm
Dammit, nimh, now your revised assessment is gonna get blamed on me! Laughing :wink:
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 03:56 am
georgeob1 wrote:
I'll separately deal with the question of how one so capable of patient, objective, reasoned analysis of complex matters could end up with such awful political affiliations.

See? That's what I meant earlier about "What's a nice girl like you doing in a place like this?" Good to see the conservatives are doing it too. Wink

nimh wrote:
The author's point is well-taken, I'd assume - anyone who sets out towards the "heartland" with the notion that the people who live there are ignorant, bigoted chauvinists, is not very likely to succeed in winning much sympathy there.

Actually, the geographically correct term is "flyover country", not "heartland".

Seriously though: When I look at nimh's statistics about where the Democrats lost the most votes, I notice that they are by and large the groups where I'd expect that the Democrats have the most votes to lose. (Latinos, Jews, women, big cities ...). Do you know a way of accounting for this "stock of votes to lose" effect, as distinguished from the "discontent with the candidate and his platform" effect? It would be interesting because a party strategist would want to do something about the latter effect, but not the former.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 05:47 am
Thomas wrote:

Actually, the geographically correct term is "flyover country", not "heartland".


Well yes, "heartland" has overtones of the prominent 19th century European geostrategic thinkers. However we had one of those nuts too, A.T. Mahan (a Navy guy).

"Flyover Country" also has its overtones of blue state elitism. Looks like Thomas' recent travels have taken him to New York and California.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 05:54 am
georgeob1 wrote:
"Flyover Country" also has its overtones of blue state elitism. Looks like Thomas' recent travels have taken him to New York and California.

Bingo! Good call. Smile
( But I did spend time in Saint Louis too, which I believe is part of Heartland/Flyover Country)
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 06:46 am
nimh

That's not bad at all. And it matches the analysis of others as well. Rove had said, after the last election, that there was a large pool of evangelicals (some 2 million) who had not arrived at the polls and there's no question he went after them this time. At the very least, the numbers of them getting to the polls couldn't be allowed to lessen in 2004. There's no reason to think Rove personally directed or oversaw the various local bodies that dragged gay marriage onto so many states' ballots, but it would not have made him unhappy. Which is not to say, of course, that Rove and the evangelical community are unlinked, because that's not so, it's a voter base he needs utterly and delegations are knocking on his door with regularity.

But the fear/security strategy put them over the top. Incumbency is an advantage to begin with. Add on-going war to incumbency and that makes a challenger's job very much more difficult. The increase in women voting for Bush - the most counter-intuitive gain one might have supposed for this administration's policies and their consequences - seems to me the best indicator of the success of this strategy.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 07:03 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Quote:
It's all in perspective. I don't know how old you are, Freeduck, but 30 to 40 years ago, not so long in the grand scheme of things, the Democrats were the party of of traditional values.
During the counter culture revolution of the 60's and 70's, the more radical left wing took control of the Democrat party and have steered it way left of center ever since. Unfortunately the far left views traditional values with derision and contempt and thus separates itself from the center and right who aren't ready to dissolve all they value and hold dear. Whatever side you are on in the gay marriage issue for instance, some gay rights groups abetted by some activist judges are pushing for the definition of marriage to be changed. That isn't hype. It is a reality. It is unfair to say those who value traditional marraige are overhyping it and making it a bigger deal than it actually is. You can go right down the line on every issue and see that it isn't hype but the choice between preserving a policy/law/tradition versus changing that policy/law/tradition.

Sometimes change is beneficial, important, necessary. Sometimes it isn't. But if one side tells the other side that they are evil, corrupt, stupid, ignorant, ill informed, etc. etc. etc. because of the position they hold, you can bet you'll make a lot of those people determined to defend their position or at least mad enough to go vote.


Only interested in that one line that I quoted in the quote.

30 or 40 years ago the democratic party was the party of the southern segrationist and those kinds of things. I am glad that we changed and I like the direction that our party is in very much.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:22 am
Hi nimh,

Thanks for the invite.

Yeah, I've been pretty much staying out of things. Tired of it all, for now anyway.

I think your central thesis and mine (which I haven't gone back to, some good rebuttals) match up in a lot of ways -- that people were scared, and even when they looked to Kerry with an open mind, ready to vote for him, they saw someone who was driven by external rather than internal forces, polls rather than convictions. Someone who was weaker than our maybe-wrong-but-he-sure-is-steadfast president.

One thing that made a big impression on me during the campaign was the reaction among women to the SBVfT thing. Not the allegations per se, but the way Kerry reacted. They thought he should have fought back, and that not doing so was a sign of weakness.

The Eastern liberal thing was a major hurdle to be overcome, as well, and I don't think that (if there was a way at all) Kerry ever figured out how to do so. I remember someone here saying that there was some position he held on an issue, something he had accomplished, that was just too complicated to be fit into soundbites so he didn't even go into it. I think there was, rightly, a sense of being talked down to among the electorate.

In a general sense -- and I don't think you were doing this, nimh -- I don't think there is any isolated cause, rather a whole bunch of factors that contributed, and played off of each other. I think some of the factors carry more weight than others, but that doesn't necessarily mean that other factors didn't have their own impact.

But how you phrase this, and which I agree with, is that Democrats shouldn't leap on the religion factor and give up abortion, for example. I DO think that it was enough of a factor -- not a toal non-factor -- that Democrats should make more of an effort to embrace the progressive religious wing of the party. To emphasize the social values and go ahead and do it in a religious context -- helping the poor, valuing life (including non-American life.) Not harp on it, but not shun it either. I wrote a letter to the editor here, and a woman I know who works in a church told me she'd seen it and "looks like we were on the same side in this election." She's very religious, and worked very hard for Kerry. I'd like to see more recognition of people like her.

What I'd especially like to see is more grassroots work. I think that's something the Democrats have really let get away from them, putting too many resources into the presidential races. I mean, the president is important!! No doubt. But I think that the imbalance leads to the skepticism and feeling of being played that the voters have. You show up in my neighborhood once every 4 years and kiss babies and look concerned -- what about the REST of the time? Where are you the other 1460 days? (Including one for leap year :-) )

I think that's where religion/ churches come in, too, where the Republicans have been doing a better job, it's a way of doing grassroots work. They're there, and not just when they need votes.

I want there to be more Democrats who are speaking to Laura B., from PDiddie's anecdote -- people who are out there in the trenches, not just strategizing in office suites.

My main point with the Seinfeld thing is that trying to replicate someone else's vision isn't nearly as powerful as staying true to your own. I DON'T want to see Democrats become Republicans lite, I DON'T want to see Democrats peeking over Karl Rove's shoulder and trying to figure out how he does it and trying to do the same. It won't work. I want to see them identify their own internal vision -- beyond "winning the presidency" -- and then stay true to it. I think the concept of social values as put forth by Rev. Jim Wallis is a powerful element there. It takes it out of the realm of big government taking your hard-earned money, puts it in a Bible context. There is a lot to agree on there; secular liberals agree that Laura B. should be getting the services she needs to get on her feet again, religious conservatives agree it is a Christian value to help those who need it.

I don't know if I can say that's MY final word on the subject -- probably not -- but very much appreciate (and also agree with) your analysis, nimh.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:27 am
Let's take these one by one.

Quote:
During the counter culture revolution of the 60's and 70's, the more radical left wing took control of the Democrat party and have steered it way left of center ever since.


This is false. In fact, the truth is precisely the opposite. Political scientists Keith Poole, Howard Rosenthal and Nolan McCarty have done quantitative measurements on votes (in Congress and Senate) against a right/left spectrum over time. By these measurements, the Clinton government is considerably more right wing than was the Eisenhower government. That trend, to the right, has been steady.

Quote:

Unfortunately the far left views traditional values with derision and contempt and thus separates itself from the center and right who aren't ready to dissolve all they value and hold dear.


There is no 'far left' left. When was the last time anyone you've read described themselves as a Marxist/Leninist? Or when was the last time you saw a copy of "The Daily Worker" being handed out on a street corner. Union membership is down to something like one fifth of what it was thirty-five years ago. Who's got a Che tshirt in their college dorm drawers today? Now, folks like foxfyre will repeat statements such as those above and describe 'far left' as being against a war, or being in favor of union bargaining power, or for speaking out against threats to separation of church and state. All quite centrist positions thirty five years ago.

As to treating traditional values with derision and contempt...what traditional values? That whites are superior to blacks? That was a traditional value once. That Christianity is superior to other faiths? That was a traditional value once, and the attempt to make it one again is in resurgence. That a man had the traditional right to rape his wife? That abortionists ought to be jailed or put to death? That was a value once, and hello. That Genesis ought to be taught in science classes in school? That oral/genital contact is criminal? That homosexuals are less equal? There is every reason to treat each of these traditional values with derision and contempt, and anyone who holds them dear.

Quote:

Whatever side you are on in the gay marriage issue for instance, some gay rights groups abetted by some activist judges are pushing for the definition of marriage to be changed. That isn't hype. It is a reality.


Some civil rights groups, abetted by some activist judges, dismantled segreation and institutional racism. Where congresses and electorates thought racism a jimdandy phenomenon, the courts acted as a bulwack to protect the rights of those disadvantaged and held to be half-citzens.

What, inherently, is wrong or inappropriate or undemocratic about 'changing definitions'? Marriage was once defined as between two white or two blacks but not one black and one white. Were we to never redefine definitions, then wives would be still be property.
Quote:


Sometimes change is beneficial, important, necessary. Sometimes it isn't. But if one side tells the other side that they are evil, corrupt, stupid, ignorant, ill informed, etc. etc. etc. because of the position they hold, you can bet you'll make a lot of those people determined to defend their position or at least mad enough to go vote.


As a pragmatic argument, sure. Alabamans got up in arms and defensive when outside folks said that their racism was evil, morally corrupt, and that those who voiced such sentiments were stupid or ignorant. But, of course, they were those things.
0 Replies
 
Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:38 am
blatham wrote:
Let's take these one by one.

Quote:
During the counter culture revolution of the 60's and 70's, the more radical left wing took control of the Democrat party and have steered it way left of center ever since.


This is false. In fact, the truth is precisely the opposite. Political scientists Keith Poole, Howard Rosenthal and Nolan McCarty have done quantitative measurements on votes (in Congress and Senate) against a right/left spectrum over time. By these measurements, the Clinton government is considerably more right wing than was the Eisenhower government. That trend, to the right, has been steady.

A notable exception to the message delivered by McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry.

Quote:

Unfortunately the far left views traditional values with derision and contempt and thus separates itself from the center and right who aren't ready to dissolve all they value and hold dear.


There is no 'far left' left.

I agree, with a few notable exceptions, Bill Clinton, John Breaux, Mary Landrue and perhaps a couple of others, the whole Dem party agenda is far left.

As to treating traditional values with derision and contempt...what traditional values? That whites are superior to blacks? That was a traditional value once.

And now only held by a very few racists and some liberal Dems who believe they need preferential treatment to succeed.

That Christianity is superior to other faiths?

Some think so, but that is there value judgment, not a universal truth.T

Quote:

Whatever side you are on in the gay marriage issue for instance, some gay rights groups abetted by some activist judges are pushing for the definition of marriage to be changed. That isn't hype. It is a reality.


Some civil rights groups, abetted by some activist judges, dismantled segreation and institutional racism. Where congresses and electorates thought racism a jimdandy phenomenon, the courts acted as a bulwack to protect the rights of those disadvantaged and held to be half-citzens.

Homosexuals are "disadvantaged". In what way?

What, inherently, is wrong or inappropriate or undemocratic about 'changing definitions'? Marriage was once defined as between two white or two blacks but not one black and one white. Were we to never redefine definitions, then wives would be still be property.
Quote:


Sometimes change is beneficial, important, necessary. Sometimes it isn't. But if one side tells the other side that they are evil, corrupt, stupid, ignorant, ill informed, etc. etc. etc. because of the position they hold, you can bet you'll make a lot of those people determined to defend their position or at least mad enough to go vote.


Yup, like Evangelical Christians defend against that.

As a pragmatic argument, sure. Alabamans got up in arms and defensive when outside folks said that their racism was evil, morally corrupt, and that those who voiced such sentiments were stupid or ignorant. But, of course, they were those things.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:39 am
It honestly doesn't matter who holds American values whether they be soccer/security moms, the religious, corporate executives, Wal-mart clerks, or the guys down at Local #101. It should be what values, not who's values, that are important.

Conservative doesn't mean engraved in granite. Conservatives can change when it makes sense or it is productive to do so maybe even more than liberals can. Conservatives do try to conserve those values that are important and will resist change purely for change's sake.

The Democrats of 40 years ago were conservatives in every sense before they were highjacked by the left wing extremists. They did have southern segregationists in the party yes, but we all grow, mature, and learn to see things differently as the decades tick by. If the recently departed elder Senator from North Carolina and the current elder Senator from West Virginia could learn to see things differently, it is a certainty that the Democrats didn't have to go way off in left field to shed themselves of racist ideology.

James Carville, Bill Clinton's campaign architect and attack dog, summed it up. The Democrats have received a wake up call in the election of 2002 and now with the presidency, loss of seats in the House and Senate and at the state and local levels, they need to be reborn.

I hope they can be. I want to get back to the time when I can passionately support my candidate, but will still feel good about it if the loyal opposition wins.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 09:03 am
The religion 'card' can't be allowed to fall exclusively to the Republican party.

And of course there's no reason why such a notion should have gained ascendance except that
1) it is advantageous to the new right that it does, and
2) the church/state separation issue is fundamentally liberal, designed by the founders not to suppress religious expression, but to allow all variations of religious expression within the community through disallowing the ascendance of one state faith.

Thus there is an inevitable friction between those who would insist their faith is the one true faith or insist that their scriptures or sacred texts are penned by a diety and are infallable or insist that the social mores and doctrines of their faith be the overarching mores and doctrines of the land, and everyone else of other faiths or no faith. As fox does above, the term 'tradition' can be applied to any of these notions, in order to give it some special heft or a licence to over-rule other competing notions.

Yet there is a whole universe of faith positions and faith expressions which fall outside of the narrow and exclusive sort described above. Many people of faith favor progressive social policy. Many people of faith, such as georgeob, see no conflict between evolutionary theory and a Christian creator. Many people of faith favor a clear line separating church and state. Many people of faith are very comforted indeed that the Supreme Court and other judicial bodies remain a bulwark against majoritarian oppression of those less fortunate or those granted fewer rights of equality.

Thus the problem, from a liberal's point of view, is not religion at all. Religion and liberalism are not in any manner necessarily opposed or incompatible. And much of the history of America demonstrates the effective and sincere cooperation between religious groups and non-religious groups working to lessen suffering and to enrich the cultural lives of the community.

The problem, from a liberal's point of view, is ONLY with certain exclusive religious views that seek dominance, or special status from which dominance may flow.

So, the dems seem to have three projects ahead. First, to move into all those religious communities which share values of compassion and inclusivity, traditional Christian values, and work with them to achieve their shared social goals.

Second, they have to identify and counter the various mythologies that have been built up to portray Dems/liberals as anti-faith.

Third, they have to shift the notion of who precisely is dangerous to the best traditions of America by demonstating how this is actually so.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 09:06 am
Thomas wrote:
Seriously though: When I look at nimh's statistics about where the Democrats lost the most votes, I notice that they are by and large the groups where I'd expect that the Democrats have the most votes to lose. (Latinos, Jews, women, big cities ...). Do you know a way of accounting for this "stock of votes to lose" effect[?]

Probably not relevant.

Yes, if a candidate loses, say, 5% or 10% nationally, he is likely to lose even more there where he had most votes to lose - where he'd been scoring high. Whereas he wouldnt lose much among the groups he had limited support among in the first place anyway, obviously, because there were few votes for him there to lose.

But thats not the situation we're talking about here. Kerry got almost exactly the same percentage as Gore. Both got 48% of the popular vote. So if Kerry loses 9% of the Latino vote, then he must have won among other groups. The loss does not indicate a proportional share of an overall loss, but a clearly negative deviation from what overall is a stable result.

The deviation is even more pronounced if we compare these groups among which Kerry lost so starkly (Latinos, Jews, inhabitants of cities) with other stocks of votes where Dems had the most to lose. For example, the Dems have a much larger lead among African-Americans than among Latinos, but had to yield very little of that. Kerry actually won significant extra ground among those in the lowest-income bracket (+6%), another stock electorate of the Dems (dont ask me how this squares up with his losses among those in the lowest education bracket).

Further anomalies underline the point. Yes, the Dem had most to lose among those in cities, because thats where the Dems have most votes in the first place. But what we see is not a nice curve of proportional losses. No: Kerry lost, compared to Gore, in the cities ... but actually WON percentage points in small towns (+10%) and rural areas (+3%). (Another reason to relativate the "Christian" explanation for his election loss.)

So yes, good point - but not applicable in this case, I don't think. The stock Dem electorates Kerry lost among are quite specific, and contrasted with other such stock Dem electorates where he remained stable or even added points.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 09:11 am
Quote:
I agree, with a few notable exceptions, Bill Clinton, John Breaux, Mary Landrue and perhaps a couple of others, the whole Dem party agenda is far left.


Larry

You repeat this, as does foxfyre again. I've just layed out the ways in which this is pretty clearly seen to be, in significant ways, an empirically wrong idea.

Precisely in what ways is the modern democratic party more 'left' than it was in Adlai Stevenson's time?
0 Replies
 
Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 09:20 am
blatham wrote:
Quote:
I agree, with a few notable exceptions, Bill Clinton, John Breaux, Mary Landrue and perhaps a couple of others, the whole Dem party agenda is far left.


Larry

You repeat this, as does foxfyre again. I've just layed out the ways in which this is pretty clearly seen to be, in significant ways, an empirically wrong idea.

Precisely in what ways is the modern democratic party more 'left' than it was in Adlai Stevenson's time?


Because then, it had a much larger number of influential moderates and conservatives than it does now...and it wasn't a winning agenda for Adlai either.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Obama '08? - Discussion by sozobe
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
McCain's VP: - Discussion by Cycloptichorn
Food Stamp Turkeys - Discussion by H2O MAN
The 2008 Democrat Convention - Discussion by Lash
McCain is blowing his election chances. - Discussion by McGentrix
Snowdon is a dummy - Discussion by cicerone imposter
TEA PARTY TO AMERICA: NOW WHAT?! - Discussion by farmerman
 
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.04 seconds on 09/19/2024 at 11:46:32