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Bush supporters' aftermath thread

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 11:59 am
Quote:
The bureau said it made changes to normal payroll survey procedures for the first time ever to account for the hurricane.

For example, non-responses from areas that the Federal Emergency Management Agency designated as being flooded or as having catastrophic damage were treated as lost jobs. Previously, non-responders were assumed to have the same change as similar firms in their industry. That change raises the risk that employment losses were overstated, the bureau said.

More than a third of the companies in the damaged region were based elsewhere, and officials should be able to get accurate readings from them, the bureau said.

source: Bloomberg et. al. as of yesterday.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 12:02 pm
That's interesting, Walter, because the BLS's accounting would cause it to err on the side of exaggerating the job loss. This would mean that the real job loss is even less of a problem.
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 12:04 pm
Published on Friday, October 7, 2005 by the Associated Press
Poll: Key Groups in Bush's Political Coalition Grow Worried About Direction of Nation
by Will Lester

WASHINGTON - Evangelicals, Republican women, Southerners and other critical groups in President Bush's political coalition are increasingly worried about the direction the nation is headed and disappointed with his performance, an AP-Ipsos poll found.
The growing unease could be a troubling sign for a White House already struggling to keep the Republican Party base from slipping over Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers, Gulf Coast spending projects, immigration and other issues.



Politically, this is very serious for the president. If the base of his party has lost faith, that could spell trouble for his policy agenda and for the party generally.

James Thurber, a political scientist at American University
"Politically, this is very serious for the president," said James Thurber, a political scientist at American University. "If the base of his party has lost faith, that could spell trouble for his policy agenda and for the party generally."

Public sentiment about the nation's direction has sunk to new depths at a time people are anxious about Iraq, the economy, gas prices and the management of billions of dollars being spent for recovery from the nation's worst natural disaster.

Only 28 percent say the country is headed in the right direction while two-thirds, 66 percent, say it is on the wrong track, the poll found.

Those most likely to have lost confidence about the nation's direction over the past year include white evangelicals, down 30 percentage points, Republican women, 28 points, Southerners, 26 points, and suburban men, 20 points.

Bush's supporters are uneasy about issues including federal deficits, immigration and his latest nomination for the Supreme Court. Social conservatives are concerned about his choice of Miers, a relatively unknown lawyer who has most recently served as White House counsel.

"Bush is trying to get more support generally from the American public by seeming more moderate and showing he's a strong leader at the same time he has a rebellion within his own party," Thurber said. "The far right is starting to be very open about their claim that he's not a real conservative."

The president's job approval is mired at the lowest level of his presidency - 39 percent. While four of five Republicans say they approve of Bush's job performance - enthusiasm in that support has dipped over the last year.

Almost two-thirds of Republicans strongly approved of the job done by Bush in December 2004, soon after his re-election. The AP-Ipsos survey found that just half in his own party feel that way now.

The intensity of support for Bush's job performance has also dropped sharply among white evangelicals, Southerners, people from rural areas and suburban men.

"We've lost focus on where we're supposed to be going and not able to respond to the crises that affect the people of this country," said David Ernest, a Republican from San Ramon, Calif., who is angry about the government's response to Hurricane Katrina. "We're mired in a Middle Eastern adventure and we've taken the focus off of our own country."

Bush has tried to reassure conservatives about his Supreme Court nominee. He's also trying to counter critics of the war by tying U.S. efforts in Iraq to the larger war against terrorism. And he's made frequent trips to the areas devastated by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to offset criticism of the government's initial response to Katrina.

Even those efforts get viewed with suspicion by some.

"I just think the president is doing things for political reasons, not what's right for the people," said Traci Wallace, a Democrat from Tallahassee, Fla. "Every time he makes a trip to the hurricane zone, he's blowing a million dollars."

Of all the problems facing the country, the continuing war in Iraq is the one that troubles some Bush supporters the most.

"I approve of what the president is doing, but it's a mixed decision," said Richard Saulinski, a Republican from Orland Park, Ill. "We should get out of Iraq. It seems like there's no light at the end of the tunnel. I just think we're dealing with a culture we don't really understand."

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted by Ipsos, an international polling company, from Monday to Wednesday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

AP manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson contributed to this story.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 12:14 pm
Isn't Ipsos that anti-American French think tank? Or am I thinking of something else?
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 12:22 pm
Foxfyre, could be. Could it be too that Bushie's conservative base is happy and united with him as ever? I'd say we all know that aint true. Especially since the Miers nomination.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 12:42 pm
Achieving power is one thing. But, then exercising that power wisely, competently, humanely and with selflessness and transparency is all quite another thing.

The Bush administration - and the new conservative movement which bolsters it - is now perceived increasingly within the US (a tad belated compared to most other jurisdictions) to be failing, perhaps very seriously failing, in each of these requirements.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 01:05 pm
from Bush's latest speech...note the strawman fallacy
Quote:
Some have also argued that extremism has been strengthened by the actions of our coalition in Iraq, claiming that our presence in that country has somehow caused or triggered the rage of radicals. I would remind them that we were not in Iraq on September the 11th, 2001 -- and al Qaeda attacked us anyway.


"Some have also argued that extremism has been strengthened by the actions of our coalition in Iraq..." Yes. Many have made this argument.

"...claiming that our presence in that country has somehow caused or triggered the rage of radicals. I would remind them that we were not in Iraq on September the 11th, 2001 -- and al Qaeda attacked us anyway. " And here he does the sneaky strawman switcheroo, substituting another claim for the one actually made.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 01:36 pm
blueflame1 wrote:
Foxfyre, could be. Could it be too that Bushie's conservative base is happy and united with him as ever? I'd say we all know that aint true. Especially since the Miers nomination.


Hard to say Blue. I check in on the Rasmussen site every day and over the last couple of weeks Bush's poll numbers have remained pretty steady with his base, in fact may actually be edging up. Does everybody in his base agree with everything he does? No way, and we all have been quite vocal about that. But then Conservatives don't have to agree on every issue to be conservative, nor do we require perfection from our leaders.

Are a lot of us happy with the Miers appointment? No we aren't. Because it was a bad appointment? Not necessarily. Then why? Because she was not what we were expecting.

Needless to say there isn't a saint among us nor among our elected leaders. We're all human with inconsistencies, failings, gifts, talents, and feet of clay. And we are just as capable of childish disappointment as any kid who wants a Red Ryder BB gun for Christmas and gets a new wool sweater instead, no matter how much more practical that sweater might be.

Miers is a wool sweater. She may be absolutely wonderful on the Court, but she just didn't provide the satisfaction and excitement and feeling of triumph we all wanted. And we are disappointed.

But give us time to get used to the idea. And don't count on it making the President's base flee in utter dismay. I just don't think it's going to be all that serious.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 02:02 pm
Bush Addresses Unease Over Court Nominee
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
Published: October 9, 2005
The White House is scrambling to control a conservative uprising over the nomination of Harriet E. Miers to the Supreme Court.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 02:24 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Isn't Ipsos that anti-American French think tank? Or am I thinking of something else?


Ipsos is (originally) French, not a think-tank, however, but an advertising research company.
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blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 03:59 pm
Whoever this IPSOS is they sure are getting a lot of milage with this poll. Black and white and read all over.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Oct, 2005 06:11 pm
Did you hear about Bush's brain scan, performed by the Surgeon General? Bush asked how the scan turned out.
"Well, you have a right brain and a left brain."
"Doesn't everybody?" asked Bush.
"Yes. But in your case, there's nothing right on the left and nothing left on the right."
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 03:04 pm
Well, according to the inside rumor mill, Karl Rove's fourth trip to the grand jury is not sparking any additional speculation about an indictment. Awhile back, John Tierney wrote a piece re that whole Valerie Plame, Judith Miller, etc. thing calling it "Nadagate".

In this week's issue of Editor & Publisher, Joe Strupp reports Tierney's summation:
"Time will tell whether Tierney's commentary in his "Nadagate" column will hold up. He wrote: "...it looks as if this scandal is about a spy who was not endangered, a whistle-blower who did not blow the whistle and was not smeared, and a White House official who has not been fired for a felony that he did not commit. And so far the only victim is a reporter who did not write a story about it."
LINK
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 03:07 pm
Yeah, lol, keep hoping that that's the case, Fox...

What rumour mill are you referring to? The one that leads back to Luskin? Because, well, there are some decidedly contrary rumours floating around out there...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
freedom4free
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 03:26 pm
He He Very Happy , i've just been reading first afew pages of this huge thread, there were some hardline Bush supporters around. Very Happy

I wonder how they feel now ?

e.g...

Moishe3rd wrote:
President Bush will go down in history as one of the greatest Presidents this nation has ever had.
If - he can overcome the greatest threat to this nation - Islamic fascist jihaddist death cultists.
I sincerely hope, now that he has a mandate from the people, that we can stop fighting a war against "terrorism" and fight Islamic fascist death cultists.
Why?
Because these people will not change unless we help them to change. And unless we identify them as to who they are.

Nonetheless, George W Bush is a fine man and a great President.
Smile
0 Replies
 
Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 03:51 pm
freedom4free wrote:
I wonder how they feel now?


Well, I'm ambivalent about Harriet Miers' nomination to the SCOTUS. Other than that, I feel the same.

Why? Did you think the views of a bunch of whiny, complaining liberals was going to sway my own? Very Happy
0 Replies
 
freedom4free
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 04:05 pm
I think the Bush Adminstration needs to remember the first rule when you find yourself stuck in a hole: Stop Digging!

You guys are helping him dig real deep. Shocked
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 04:18 pm
Just as a reminder, all the whiney butt proclamations of doom and gloom do not create doom and gloom but rather just create doom and gloom in the gullible mind. Those that care to look, will find much that is not doom and gloom, and if actually considered, might create a different perspective.

That's the difference between the conservative and liberal ideologies after all: perspective.

The following gives a very different perspective and one that most liberals seem determined to ignore:

October 14, 2005
An American "Debacle"?
More unjustified negativity on the war in Iraq.
by Victor Davis Hanson
National Review Online

In a recent Los Angeles Times op-ed entitled "American Debacle" Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national-security adviser to President Carter, begins with:

Some 60 years ago Arnold Toynbee concluded, in his monumental "Study of History," that the ultimate cause of imperial collapse was "suicidal statecraft." Sadly for George W. Bush's place in history and ?- much more important ?- ominously for America's future, that adroit phrase increasingly seems applicable to the policies pursued by the United States since the cataclysm of 9/11.

Brzezinski soon adds, "In a very real sense, during the last four years the Bush team has dangerously undercut America's seemingly secure perch on top of the global totem pole by transforming a manageable, though serious, challenge largely of regional origin into an international debacle."

What are we to make of all this, when a former national-security adviser writes that the war that began when Middle Eastern terrorists struck at the heart of the continental United States in New York and Washington ?- something that neither the Nazis, Japanese militarists, nor Soviets ever accomplished ?- was merely a "challenge largely of regional origin"?

Some "region" ?- downtown Manhattan and the nerve center of the American military.

Aside from the unintended irony that the classical historian Arnold Toynbee himself was not always "adroit," but wrong in most of his determinist conclusions, and that such criticism comes from a high official of an administration that witnessed on its watch the Iranian-hostage debacle, the disastrous rescue mission, the tragicomic odyssey of the terminally ill shah, the first and last Western Olympic boycott, oil hikes even higher in real dollars than the present spikes, Communist infiltration into Central America, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Cambodian holocaust, a gloomy acceptance that perpetual parity with the Soviet Union was the hope of the day, the realism that cemented our ties with corrupt autocracies in the Middle East (Orwellian sales of F-15 warplanes to the Saudis minus their extras), and the hard-to-achieve simultaneous high unemployment, high inflation, and high interest rates, Mr. Brzezinski is at least a valuable barometer of the current pessimism over events such as September 11.

Such gloom seems to be the fashion of the day. Iraq is now routinely dismissed as a quagmire or "lost." Osama bin laden is assumed to be still active, while we are beginning the fifth year of the war that is "longer than World War II." Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo purportedly are proof of our brutality and have lost us hearts and minds, while gas prices spiral out of control. The U.S. military is supposedly "overextended" if not "wrecked" by Iraq, while the war in Afghanistan "drags on." Meanwhile, it is "only a matter of time" until we are hit with another terrorist strike of the magnitude of September 11. To cap it off, the United States is now "disliked" abroad, by those who abhor our "unilateralism" and "preemptive" war.

All that is a fair summation of the current glumness.

But how accurate are such charges? If one were to assess them from the view of the Islamic fundamentalists, they would hardly resemble reality.

Many of al-Zarqawi or Dr. Zawahiri's intercepted letters and communiqués reveal paranoid fears that Iraq is indeed becoming lost ?- but to the terrorists. The enemy speaks of constantly shifting tactics ?- try beheading contractors; no, turn to slaughtering Shiites; no, butcher teachers and school kids; no, go back to try to blow up American convoys. In contrast, we are consistent in our strategy ?- go after jihadists, train Iraqi security forces, promote consensual government so Iraq becomes an autonomous republic free to determine its own future. We will leave anytime the elected government of Iraq asks us to; the terrorists won't cease until they have rammed, Taliban-style, an 8th-century theocracy down the throats of unwilling Iraqis.

Bin Laden is in theory "loose," but can't go anywhere except the wild Afghan-Pakistan border or perhaps the frontiers of Kashmir. His terrorist hierarchy is scattered, and many of his top operatives are either dead or, like him, in hiding. For all the legitimate worry over the triangulation of Pakistan, it is still safer for Americans openly to walk down the streets of Islamabad than for bin Laden. In any case, at least the former try it and the latter does not. How much food and medical supplies will bin Laden airlift in to his fellow Muslims reeling from the earthquake?

Note how al Qaeda has dropped much of its vaunted boasts to restore the caliphate over the infidel, and now excuses its violence with the plea of victimhood: "After all this, does the prey not have the right, when bound and dragged to its slaughter, to escape? Does it not have the right, while being slaughtered, to lash out with its paw? Does it not have the right, after being slaughtered, to attack its slaughterer with its blood?"

The war against the terrorists may be entering the fifth year, but despite over 2,000 combat fatalities, we have still only lost a little over 2/3s of those killed on the very first day of the war, almost 50 months ago ?- quite a contrast with the over 400,000 American dead at the end of World War II. And a wrecked Japan and Germany were not on a secure path to democracy until six years after America entered the war, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan that were defeated without killing millions and already have held plebiscites on new constitutions.

Westerners, it is true, sensationalize the abuses of Abu Ghraib and perceived grievances of Guantanamo far more than they do the abject slaughtering and beheading by the enemy. Nor do Americans write much about the heroics of their own U.S. Marines in retaking Fallujah or their brave Army battalions in providing security for civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq to vote.

But our enemies still are not impressed by such a self-critical mentality, and know that a trip to Abu Ghraib does not mean either a Saddam-like torture chamber or an al Qaeda beheading, but rather far better conditions than they ever would extend to others, and often a rest of sorts between attacking Americans. As for Guantanamo, it is humane compared to any jail in the Middle East, and fundamentalists only harp on its perceived brutality since they think such invective resonates with Western opponents of America's current policy.

Oil is the weirdest theme of the debate over the war. Opponents claim that we went there to steal or control it. But after we arrived, as in the case of 1991 when we had the entire mega-reserves of Kuwait in our grasp, we turned it back over to the local owners, ensuring that for the first time in decades a transparent Iraqi government ?- not the French, not the Russians, not the Baathists, not the Saddam kleptocracy ?- now controls its own petroleum. The more the terrorists talk about Western theft of their national heritage, the more OPEC gouges the industrialized world and sends its billions in petrodollars abroad to foreign banks.

The story of the war since September 11 is that the United States military has not lost a single battle, has removed two dictatorships, and has birthed democracy in the Middle East. During Katrina, critics suggested troops in Iraq should have been in New Orleans, but that was a political, not a realistic complaint: few charged that there were too many thousands abroad in Germany, Italy, the U.K., Korea, or Japan when they should have been in Louisiana.

Afghanistan is nearing the status of the Balkans ?- after nearly four, not eight years of peacekeeping to keep down the remnants of fascism while democracy takes root. And Afghanistan was a war (like Iraq) approved by the U.S. Senate and House ?- unlike Mr. Clinton's bombing of Serbia.

The enemy seems frustrated that it cannot repeat September 11 here in the United States. Hundreds of terrorists have been arrested, and direction from a central al Qaeda leadership has been lost. Killing jihadists in Afghanistan and Iraq has, as their communiqués show, put terrorists on the defensive ?- understandable after losing sympathetic governments like the Taliban.

We have made plenty of mistakes since September 11, often failed to articulate our goals and values, and turned on each other in perpetual acrimony. Federal spending is out of control, and our present energy policy won't wean us off Middle Eastern petroleum for years. But still lost in all this conundrum is that the old appeasement of the 1990s is over, the terrorists are losing both tactically and strategically, and, as Tony Blair said of the evolving Western mentality, "The rules of the game are changing."

Finally, we need to be systematic in our appraisal of the course of this war, asking not just whether the United States is more popular and better liked, but rather whether Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Egypt are moving in the right or wrong direction. Is Europe more or less attuned to the dangers of radical Islam, and more or less likely to work with the United States? Is the Israeli-Palestinian dispute getting worse or stabilizing? Is our security at home getting better, and do we understand radical Islam more or less perfectly? Are Middle East neutrals like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan more or less helpful in the war against the terrorists? Are global powers like India and Japan more or less inclined to America? And are clear-cut enemies such as Iran and Syria becoming more or less emboldened or facing ostracism?

If we look at all these questions dispassionately, and tune out the angry rhetoric on the extreme Left and Right, then we can see things are becoming better rather than worse ?- even as the media and now the public itself believes that a successful strategy is failing.

And as for Mr. Brzezinski's indictment ?- most of us still would prefer the United States of 2005 to the chaotic America of 1977-80 under an administration that did little to confront the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, which began in earnest on its watch with the real debacle in Tehran.

©2005 Victor Davis Hanson
LINK
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 05:00 pm
Miers-if she does not carry the Senate, Bush is a dead duck president, there will be zero Bush agenda passed in Congress. The republican party will splinter into religionist ideologues vs conservative republicans (McCain) leaving the Dems back on the power bench by default. Sad, really. I was hoping for a return to liberalism rather than the same old and tired Dems. So it goes.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Oct, 2005 05:23 pm
Quote:
Beyond the short-term problems (Rove/Libby/Katrina/Iraq/gas/Frist/DeLay/economy), Republicans are particularly anxious about the sprawling investigations of conservative lobbyist Jack Abramoff, whose business and political dealings regularly brought him into contact with dozens of lawmakers and top White House officials. Among insiders, he was one of the most familiar faces among the generation of operatives and lobbyists who came of age when Republicans took control of Congress after the 1994 elections.
"The one that people are most worried about is Abramoff because it seems to have such long tentacles," said former congressman Vin Weber (R-Minn.), a lobbyist with close ties to the White House. "This seems to be something that could spread almost anywhere . . . and that has a lot of people worried."

The Abramoff scandal has already resulted in two unanticipated casualties: David H. Safavian, a former Rove business partner serving as the top White House procurement official, recently resigned and was arrested on charges that he lied about and impeded an investigation into his dealings with Abramoff. And Timothy E. Flanigan, Bush's nominee for deputy attorney general, the number two job at the Justice Department, withdrew last week after questions were raised about his interactions with the lobbyist.

"The Abramoff thing is a lingering nuisance to everybody," said GOP lobbyist Charles Black. "I don't know who else might be caught up in it."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/13/AR2005101301955.html?referrer=email
0 Replies
 
 

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