@Leadfoot,
you seem to NOT want to understand. Better than a coin toss by a sizable amount that actually makes or saves lots and lots of money . Geophysical models made fracking doable and the tapping of minor petroleum plays more profitable
Youve been in the software game. were you not familiar with how iteration works?
All models are calibrated and run for QA in many methods. Calibration against a pst reality aint a bd means to help refine a model.
Like variograms can pretty much copy a real surface , the more points the better the fit.
Models are tools to help us better understand. they are not meant to be magical insights.(Alhough a number of model geeks seem to feel that thir model is BETTER than reality)