@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:
what I pose is no more silly than unilateral ARmageddon. (I was kidding Gooey and oral were NOT).
Still not scared?
Why should I be scared?
Do you think one is secretly Mattis and the other McMasters?
Besides, with the path NK seems to currently be on, unless Kim makes a major course change, I think an armed conflict is inevitable. I certainly hope it doesn't involve nukes but if he uses one on SK or Japan, I can't imagine him not being nuked in return by the US. Possibly even by China.
The notion that Kim is too sane to launch a nuclear attack is wishful thinking, and he's not necessarily insane if he thinks the US is the cliche
paper tiger and won't respond with nukes if he uses them first. Keep in mind that NK has repeatedly crossed the line with aggression towards SK and paid virtually no price at all. After the attack on Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 that killed four and wounded 18, SK responded by shelling two NK artillery bases. I don't know if any North Koreans were killed in the counter-attack (Not like there is a free press over there to report on such things), but I'm pretty certain that if there were, Kim father and son were hardly heartbroken. I'm sure they learned a lesson, but it wasn't
Don't mess with South Korea and the US!
It's pretty clear that the military strategy in terms of NK has been to essentially absorb what you can and if you must respond deliver no more than what was received, because you never know what a crazy frickin Kim is likely to do. The responses have essentially been symbolic and not attempts, in any way, to seriously dissuade the North Koreans from attempting further, similar actions. You don't have to be totally insane to believe that if this is the extent to which your enemies will go when you attack them without provocation, they
really, really don't want to go to war. It's certainly been said enough times that passivity in the face of aggression only encourages more and worse aggressive acts, and it's been shown enough times that this is true.
This is precisely why much greater efforts to stop NK from getting nukes in the first place was called for. Strikes against Pyongyang, military installations and suspected centers of nuclear weapon development might have resulted in a full scale war between NK and SK & the US and it would not have been pretty, but it would have been a spitball contest compared to exchanging nukes and if invasion with conventional weapons was enough to scare off the US the possibility of a nuclear attack must be paralyzing.
It not a simple matter at all, but it has only become more complex, difficult and dangerous with each new uncontested advance by NK.
Unless we somehow gain intelligence that a nuclear strike by NK is imminent, I don't see the US hitting them first and so everyone is sitting around with their fingers crossed that Kim is not insane enough to put his own fat ass, not to mention his whole nation, in mortal danger by doing something everyone believes is insane. If Seoul, Tokyo or Juno are reduced to lakes of molten slag it will be small consolation that Kim, his flunkies and millions of his oppressed subjects are wiped of the face of the earth. Despite what some folks here would like to see happen, all we can do is hope and pray that the situation and a few major cities don't blow up.
In the meantime, every thuggish strongman in the world is even more convinced that it is essential for him to develop or obtain at least two nukes. One to use in a test to prove he has them and the other to enable God knows what acts of aggression. The West couldn't even hold strong and derail Iran's efforts. A great many people in this country and throughout Europe actually believe the absurd notion that Obama's deal with the mullahs is going to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power and threat.
Ten years is a long time! The theocratic thugs of the Iranian regime will either miraculously mature and voluntarily restrain themselves or the Iranian people will rise up and bring the bastards down! Look at what happened in 2011 when democratic reformers took to the streets to defy the tyranny of the mullahs and their thugs. President Obama was with these brave people all the way and provided impassioned moral support as well the leverage of the economic and military might of the most powerful nation on....whoops...wait a minute, er that's not quite what happened is it? Well, ten years is a long time and anything can happen right?