@Olivier5,
That was a tad rude. But aside from all else, look at what you've just argued:
1) You indicted me for having such high certainty that Clinton would win. It's obviously a fair indictment given that she didn't win.
2) I stated that there was "a broad consensus" on this, though equally mistaken (and I gave examples of that consensus).
3) You responded "There was no such consensus".
4) Then in your post to ossbucco immediately following, you said, "Yes, there was a sort of fake bubble of certainty around the Clintonites and in the end we all bought into it."