@coldjoint,
coldjoint wrote:
Please source that 1.4 % number.
CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates
Don't you think that it's odd the page lists "Survival Rates" at the top when it talks about Infection Fatality Rate? If IFR is 1.4%, then SR is 98.6%. 98.6%. - how wonderful it looks!
coldjoint wrote:
Sure seems millions are going to take a while
Have you seen CDC refers to the data about infection fatality rate there? It lists mathematical model scenarios there and clearly points out “The parameters in the scenarios… Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.” Do you have a clue about the hypothetical “planning scenarios”?
Use your common sense before I reveal the source of 1.4% of IFR.
Wikipedia COVID-19 pandemic data
World total cases: 45,916,151
World total deaths: 1,193,070
The world infection fatality rate: 2.6%
United States total cases: 9,222,849
US total deaths: 234,085
The US infection fatality rate: 2.5%
With 2.5% IFR, the natural herd immunity reached in the US will claim 5.8 milions of American lives.
(331,558,077 * 2.5% * 70% = 5.8 millions)
"Wait!" you may cry out because there are many people who have had the COVID-19 without being diagnosed. But reality is: Not that many! "Serology tests suggest that about 5% of U.S. citizens (15-20 million) have been exposed to Covid-19".
That is why 1.4% rather than 2.5% was used in the calculation because of having considered the undiagnosed Americans.