monitoring Trump and relevant contemporary events

Far From the Front Lines, Javelin Missiles Go Unused in Ukraine

"Under the conditions of the foreign military sale, the Trump administration stipulates that the Javelins must be stored in western Ukraine—hundreds of miles from the battlefield. "

“I see these more as symbolic weapons than anything else,” said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp. Experts say the conditions of the sale render them useless in the event of a sustained low-level assault—the kind of attack Ukraine is most likely to face from Russia."
-- Foreign Policy, October 3rd, 2019

Credit where due.

I don't believe I've ever written anything positive about John Bolton and I've written about him a lot since he first walrused into view.

But Hill's testimony yesterday demonstrated that, quite outside of his neoconservative ideology, he behaved in this case with some degree of integrity.

Charles Koch, the CEO of Koch Industries with an estimated net worth of $43.1 billion, distributed over $127.5 million in 2018 through his personal foundation to support right-wing infrastructure and the so-called "talent pipeline" needed to staff it, IRS filings obtained and examined by the Center for Media and Democracy (CMD) show.

An imperfect man, at best. As I said, it's the first positive thing I've ever written about him. But here he acted in a manner that set him apart from all those who were in on the scam.

If the Republicans cared about the facts or the gravity of the crime being investigated, the answer would be apocalyptically damaging. But they don't care, and they will continue to defend Trump even if those testifying under oath include an eyewitness to a criminal conspiracy hatched in the White House like Sondland, or patriots like Fiona Hill, Alexander Vindman, and Marie Yovanovitch, who not only provided irrefutable evidence of the crime but detailed the existential threat that crime poses to America.

NYMag - Frank Rich

Far From the Front Lines, Javelin Missiles Go Unused in Ukraine

"Under the conditions of the foreign military sale, the Trump administration stipulates that the Javelins must be stored in western Ukraine--hundreds of miles from the battlefield."

"I see these more as symbolic weapons than anything else," said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp. Experts say the conditions of the sale render them useless in the event of a sustained low-level assault--the kind of attack Ukraine is most likely to face from Russia."
-- Foreign Policy, October 3rd, 2019

The important point is that the Javelins were purchased from the military complex, so all is well.

Bolton will be well paid too.

She has a a lot of progressive support.

Have you noticed that the world is on fire?

Crowds are chanting “Death to Khamenei” in Iran while the regime kills them en masse and shuts down the internet. Throngs are marching to preserve democratic rights in Hong Kong, Warsaw, Budapest, Istanbul and Moscow. The masses are angry in Pakistan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia and toppling leaders in Lebanon and Bolivia.

This is the most widespread surge in global civic unrest since 1989. It’s a story 10 times bigger than impeachment, although the two are related.

The seeds of today’s unrest were planted in those events of 30 years ago — the fall of the Soviet Union, the spread of globalization and all the rest. That was the heyday of liberal democratic capitalism, free market fundamentalism, the end of history.

We all know now what many of us didn’t appreciate then: Globalized democratic capitalism was going to spark a backlash. It led to growing economic and cultural clashes between the educated urbanites, who thrived, and the rural masses, who were left behind. It was too spiritually thin, too cosmopolitan and deracinated. People felt that their national cultures were being ripped away from them.

Have you noticed that the world is on fire?

Crowds are chanting “Death to Khamenei” in Iran while the regime kills them en masse and shuts down the internet. Throngs are marching to preserve democratic rights in Hong Kong, Warsaw, Budapest, Istanbul and Moscow. The masses are angry in Pakistan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia and toppling leaders in Lebanon and Bolivia.

This is the most widespread surge in global civic unrest since 1989. It’s a story 10 times bigger than impeachment, although the two are related.

The seeds of today’s unrest were planted in those events of 30 years ago — the fall of the Soviet Union, the spread of globalization and all the rest. That was the heyday of liberal democratic capitalism, free market fundamentalism, the end of history.

We all know now what many of us didn’t appreciate then: Globalized democratic capitalism was going to spark a backlash. It led to growing economic and cultural clashes between the educated urbanites, who thrived, and the rural masses, who were left behind. It was too spiritually thin, too cosmopolitan and deracinated. People felt that their national cultures were being ripped away from them.

The core problem is economic. Populist economic policies of left and right destroy growth. Venezuela is an economic disaster. In Mexico the left-wing populist policies of Andrés Manuel López Obrador have brought growth to a halt. The International Monetary Fund projects Latin American growth could fall to 0.2 percent.

Lebanon is creating only 3,000 jobs a year, when it needs at least 20,000. Meanwhile, debt has soared. Trump’s trade war has lowered American economic dynamism. Xi has walked away from market reforms and ushered in an economic slowdown. Under the tax-hiking populist leader Imran Khan in Pakistan, car sales fell 39 percent in the latest quarter.

All across the world, members of the new middle classes feel trapped and abandoned. As Fareed Zakaria noted recently, the I.M.F. sees a world economy that is in a “synchronized slowdown” and growing at “its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.”

The second thing the populists have brought is corruption. Trump’s quid pro quo attempt with Ukraine is of a piece with the corrupt practices ushered in by populists all around the world. They vowed to smash the rules, but it turns out it was mostly for self-enrichment and self-protection.

Evo Morales stands accused of trying to rig an election in Bolivia. Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri gave $16 million to a bikini model while his countrymen were scraping by. In the U.S., Washington insiders are rising up to curtail Trump’s normlessness. Data from the Corruption Perceptions Index show that people around the world feel that corruption is on the rise.

The populist/authoritarian regimes are losing legitimacy. The members of the urban middle class in places like Hong Kong and Indonesia are rising up to protect the political and social freedoms.

These days, it doesn’t take much to set off a giant wave of anger. In Lebanon it was a proposed tax on WhatsApp. In Saudi Arabia the government raised taxes on hookah restaurants. In France, Zimbabwe, Ecuador and Iran it was rising fuel prices. In Chile it was a proposed 4 percent rise in subway fares.

The world is unsteady and ready to blow. The overall message is that the flaws of liberal globalization are real, but the populist alternative is not working.

The protests in all these places are leaderless, so it’s unrealistic to expect them to have policy agendas. But the big question is, what’s next? What comes after the failure of populism?

The big job ahead for leaders in almost all these nations is this: Write a new social contract that gives both the educated urban elites and the heartland working classes a piece of what they want most.

The working classes who have been supporting populists need a way to thrive in the modern economy and a sense they are respected contributors to their national project. The educated elites want their democratic freedoms protected and to live in ethnically diverse pluralistic societies.

Whoever can write that social bargain wins the future.

[Verse 1]
The rule of the tyrants decline
The year, 1979
From Uganda to Nicaragua
It's bombs and bullets all the time

So they corrupt, so they vile
So it's coup after coup all the while
Human rights they violate
They thought they were so great
So in disgrace now they live in exile

[Chorus]
Gairy is a wanted man
Idi Amin is a wanted man
Shah of Iran tried so hard to survive
He, too, is wanted dead or alive

[Verse 2]
Strikes, demonstrations & wars
Injustice is always the cause
Politicians turn too soon from
Poor people into tycoons
Corruption must bring harass

South African Vorster resign in disgrace
Muzurewa take away Ian Smith place
The Uganda devil was easily cat straddled
Beaten up and chased - what a waste

[Chorus]
Gairy is a wanted man
Patrick John is a wanted man
The Shah of Iran try so hard to survive
He too was wanted dead or alive

[Verse 3]
The Shah have a short time to live
Because the Ayatollah don't forgive
When you see church ruling state
With pure vengeance and hate
Situation must be explosive

General Somoza from Nicaragua
Thought it was easy with the Sandinistas
With the help of Venezuela, Panama and Cuba
They kick him straight to America

[Chorus]
Gairy is a wanted man
Bokassa is a wanted man
Ali Bhutto try so hard to survive
He too was wanted dead or alive

[Verse 4]
Grenadian mongoose was bad and so brave
They send the old bishop straight to the grave
After that well Gairy skip town
With the diary of the Obeah gong
No more people to enslave

Trinidad neighbors all expectedin' mayhem
Anytime anything can happen to them
Eric Williams taking a backseat to avoid Bacchanal
But everybody know he 'fraid gyal

[Chorus]
Gairy is a wanted mam
Park Chung Hee was a wanted man
Acheam Pong fight so hard to survive
He too was wanted dead or alive

Had Trump pulled out that (so far) proverbial gun and shot someone on Fifth Avenue, Republicans would trot out the exact same defense they have this week: The shot was fired at 2 a.m. and there were no eyewitnesses. Those nearby who claimed to have heard the shot had actually heard a car backfiring. The closed-circuit video capturing the incident is, as the president says, a hoax concocted by the same Fake News outlets that manufactured the Access Hollywood video. The confession released by the White House was “perfect” evidence of Trump’s innocence. Election records show that the cops who arrived on the scene were registered Democrats and therefore part of a deep-state conspiracy to frame the president for a crime he didn’t commit but that the Democrats did. The victim was not killed and will make a complete recovery, so no crime was committed anyway. And even if Trump had killed the young woman he gunned down, the argument advanced by Trump’s lawyer last month would apply: “The person who serves as president, while in office, enjoys absolute immunity from criminal process of any kind.” Next case!

Chomsky notes:
The consequences are hard to predict. If the donor class succeeds in nominating a centrist candidate, progressive activist forces might be disillusioned and reluctant to do the work on the ground that will be needed to prevent the tragedy — repeat, tragedy — of four more years of Trumpism. If a progressive candidate does gain the nomination, centrist power and wealth may back away, again opening the path to tragedy. It will be a fateful year. It will be even more important than usual to remain level-headed and to think through with care the consequences of action, and inaction.

Obama Urges Democrats to ‘Chill Out’ About 2020 Presidential Field

Mr. Obama, in his latest remarks about the Democratic primary race, said the party should focus less on differences among the candidates and more on defeating President Trump.

LOS ALTOS HILLS, Calif. — Former President Barack Obama urged Democrats on Thursday to “chill out” about the party’s 2020 field and to avoid putting candidates through “purity tests,” and warned that average voters were “nervous about changes that might take away what little they have.”

Speaking to party donors a day after the latest Democratic primary debate, Mr. Obama added to a series of recent remarks about American politics and the presidential race, including his warning on Friday that the candidates not move too far to the left in their policy proposals and his observation that the average American does not want to “tear down the system.”

Mr. Obama’s comments on Thursday appeared at times aimed more at Democratic officials, activists and donors than at the candidates themselves. Democrats should focus less on the “tactical disagreements” among the candidates, Mr. Obama said, and avoid making false choices between appealing to white working class voters or minority voters, or between energizing the party’s base or reaching out to independents and Republicans.

“Everybody needs to chill out about the candidates, but gin up about the prospect of rallying behind” a candidate, Mr. Obama said.

“There will be differences” among the candidates, Mr. Obama said, but the ultimate goal “is to defeat a president and a party that has, I think, taken a sharp turn away from a lot of the core traditions and values and institutional commitments that built this country.”

With Democratic activists and voters now weighing the different policy ideas and positions of the candidates, Mr. Obama also warned against demanding that the party’s hopefuls meet inflexible standards.

“I’m always suspicious of purity tests during elections,” Mr. Obama said. “Because you know what? The country’s complicated.”

Mr. Obama spoke to a group of about 100 donors in Los Altos Hills, Calif., during an interview with Thomas E. Perez, the Democratic National Committee chairman, at a fund-raising event for the Democratic Unity Fund, which will be used to help the party’s eventual nominee. Aides to Mr. Obama say that it is the last time he plans to speak this year about the 2020 race.

Mr. Obama did not single out any candidates by name, and said he was encouraged that they are proposing “bolder” ideas and expanding on policies that he tried to “push the envelope” on during his administration, such as criminal justice reform.

Still, he seemed to caution against pushing for too much change.

“When you listen to the average voter — even ones who aren’t stalwart Democrats, but who are more independent or are low-information voters — they don’t feel that things are working well, but they’re also nervous about changes that might take away what little they have,” he said.

At the same time, Mr. Obama said he was open to the idea of higher taxes for the wealthy, adding that the conversation around the country has changed dramatically since his campaigns.

“I’ve got a lot of room to pay more taxes — and I already pay really high taxes,” he said. “That’s one area where, I guarantee you, where you will get Joe six-pack and the single inner-city mom agreeing. They would like to see a little bigger share of the pie and you know, the rent is too damn high.”

The remarks come less than a week after Mr. Obama warned against Democratic presidential candidates moving too far to the left, jockeying to win over “left-leaning Twitter feeds” rather than appealing to voters in the middle.

In recent weeks, Mr. Obama has repeatedly said that the presidential candidates should stop being concerned with debates over ideological purity and instead focus on beating President Trump.

Mr. Obama tried to “ease people’s anxieties” about his confidence in the field, saying that whoever emerges from the primary process will be a stronger candidate.

“Their flaws are magnified,” Mr. Obama said. “People are picking away: Well, you know they’re not quite this and they’re not quite that — you know it’s a natural thing.”

Many Democratic voters say they are looking for a candidate they believe is most likely to win during the general election, and there have been extensive discussions about whether that means winning over white working class voters who voted for Mr. Obama and then Mr. Trump, or turning out voters who sat out the 2016 election. Mr. Obama told donors he believed that debate was a false choice.

Mr. Perez pointed out that Mr. Obama won Iowa in 2008, suggesting that his winning coalition included both white voters as well as black and Hispanic voters.

“At the end of the day, we are going to need everybody,” Mr. Obama said. “We will not win just by increasing the turnout of people who already agree with us completely on everything.”

Mr. Obama also spoke about the possibility of having a female nominee — there are five women now running — or a gay nominee. (Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the first major openly gay candidate in a Democratic presidential primary.)

“Those candidates are going to have barriers if they win the nomination, if they win the general election, just like I did.” he said. “Are there going to be people in the back of their mind thinking, ‘Eh, I don’t know.’ Just like those who said I don’t know about Barack Hussein Obama.”

“There aren’t a lot of black people in Iowa,” Mr. Obama said, prompting loud laughter from the donors in the room.

Trump Impeachment Inquiry: Support/Oppose

RCP Average: 11/19-11/20 Support 48.0, Oppose 44.7

I'd pay to see those results, then again I might lose all hope for humanity.