monitoring Trump and relevant contemporary events

@blatham,

http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2013/03/the-correlation-between-guns-and-homicide-rate.html

old data (explosion of mass shootings in US in past 4 years not covered)

http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/gunsnosa.jpg

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

Given the year we've had, you should expect that 'homicides per person' to skyrocket pretty soon now.

What more, a better graph would be 'percentage of gun owners' rather than 'guns per capita.' Something like 50% of guns are owned by 3% of adults due to large collections. Your graph shows collections growing but not gun ownership in general.

Oh, look, I have that graph:

https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GOT6JG6AD4YB5M6GIWZIBEHZ3A.png

Hmm, percentage of Americans owning guns declines, and the number of gun deaths decline, gee. Who would have thought.

Hmm. The time frames on our graphs actually match up pretty well, as these things go. Percentage of those owning guns has dropped by about a third. Gun homicide rate per capital... drops by about a third. You think that's a coincidence? I sure don't.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

Quote:

The only variable that can explain the high rate of mass shootings in America is its astronomical number of guns.

(...)

“In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate,” Dan Hodges, a British journalist, wrote in a post on Twitter two years ago, referring to the 2012 attack that killed 20 young students at an elementary school in Connecticut. “Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.”

NYT

As your president said, we have a lot of mentally ill people in this country.

2 Replies

@hightor,

More specifically, what he said was, “I think that mental health is your problem here”, "We have a lot of mental health problems in our country, as do other countries”, and “But this isn’t a guns situation”.

So it looks like any day now, we can look forward to the administration's plan to tackle head on this mental health problem—especially as it pertains to gun violence, right? It's either that, or they project a tacit message that we're better off to be wary of, and protect ourselves from, other citizens, rather than trying to help them (accept of course for the help that was given when Trump signed a bill in February repealing a measure that was meant to block gun sales to people with certain types of mental health problems).

1 Reply

Northam only at +2.2 with 29% in.

Don't early returns tend to be biased in favor of the Democrat?
(Due to early voting, I mean.)

2 Replies

@blatham,

Great! I'm above average.

He didn't link it, but the source is stated at the bottom of the graph.

PS: I haven't shot anyone to date.

3 Replies

@Kolyo,

No and Northam wins!

Quote:

Don't early returns tend to be biased in favor of the Democrat?
(Due to early voting, I mean.)

0 Replies

@Kolyo,

Early returns are typically from the rural areas, which lean R.

1 Reply

@roger,

I'm below average and I have! Evens out, huh?

1 Reply

@BillW,

I feel safer, already.

By the way, it doesn't average out well at all.

1 Reply

@roger,

roger wrote:

He didn't link it, but the source is stated at the bottom of the graph.

the link I posted takes the same data and reworks it three different ways

numbers are awesome

1 Reply

@roger,

Good, and I agree, I carry more weight in the average!

0 Replies

Has anyone here ever been shot? I have, and I didn't like it at all. It's freaking painful. However, I would never endorse forbidding gun ownership...what I would love is background checks, denying someone like this Texas shooter buying guns, and for Christ's sake, preventing another elementary school massacre.

2 Replies

Following tko and jorge's VA election night posts. Looking promising.

0 Replies

@glitterbag,

First, yes, in fact, I shot myself. It was just a flesh wound. A piece of shrapnel flew back and pierced my ear. And, it was illegal for the Texas shooter to buy a gun! Except, the Air Force didn't inform the FBI this guy was a real bad guy.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Early returns are typically from the rural areas, which lean R.

Now Northam is up 8 points.

It looks like Democrats did better than usual in this race.

0 Replies

Roem, the Democrat, and a transgender candidate in the district around Mannassa has defeated the Republican who sponsored a anti-trans bathroom bill, beat him by 10 points. The Democrat is leading in the gubernatorial race by fractionally more than 8 percentage points.

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@roger,

Yes, I saw that it came from AEI. What I wanted was his source.

1 Reply

@ehBeth,

Quote:

the link I posted takes the same data and reworks it three different ways

Right. The graphing from AEI is terrible.

0 Replies

Goddamn I am pleased that Gillespie got beat (and by about 8 points). If he'd won, every sick Republican running for office would have gone high magnitude bigot.

And Trump tweeted

Quote:

Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for

2 Replies

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