@nimh,
I think we have to accept that randomness will be a feature in something as large and varied as a national election.
But on the other hand, what can appear initially as randomness appears so because causal factors are hidden from view (that's the magic of astro-turf operations, for example) or because causal factors are very complex and difficult/impossible to ascertain.
Any election is an attempt to build a consensus for X and to degrade a consensus for Y. As Waldman argues in the piece I just linked, the modern GOP specialty is degradation of consensus Y (Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, Benghazi). And they are very good at this. Truth, accuracy are not merely of no interest, they will often be impediments to power realized. Thus they behave as we see them behave. It is an amoral undertaking.
Grover Norquist once said that he is uninterested in what moves an individual human mind. He is, he said, interested in what moves groups of human minds. Bannon certainly would voice a similar interest. This is exactly the realm of propaganda.