Encouraging news!
New Survey: 6 in 10 Democrats Considering Third Party Options
https://ivn.us/2017/06/21/new-survey-6-10-democrats-considering-third-party-option/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_campaign=d74ab93753-ivn_newsletter_6_22_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_24d080cf45-d74ab93753-77965981&mc_cid=d74ab93753&mc_eid=963d6f8e1d
It would be brightly wrapped gift for Trump, or whomever is the GOP candidate in 2020, if this has legs.
It will also almost assure a Republican president for 2024 and maybe beyond.
I don't believe we will have a political system that has more than two parties of significance for much longer than a decade. It's certainly possible that a new party capable of capturing a whole lot of votes may be formed, but I'm fairly certain that it would form from disaffected members of only one of the two main parties today, and that continued success for it would mean replacing the one from which it was originally formed.
Of course "considering" Third Party Options is something quite different than "planning on joining a Third Party" and even then, when the rubber met the road, a goodly number of the folks who responded in the affirmative would find one or more reasons to change their minds.
"Considering" a third party option is about as bankable a commitment as a smoker saying he's
thinking about quitting.
It does though suggest a pretty high level, among the rank & file, of dissatisfaction with the Democrat Party. Big and disappointing losses followed by a series of small and disappointing losses have a way of taking the starch out of partisans. It's in keeping with tribal behavior as well. Nothing guarantees the challenge and replacement of a tribal chieftain like a series of defeats at the hands of a rival tribe, and if the tribes confidence is shaken up enough, the entire band will often splinter and break apart.
It's tough to imagine a 3rd Party being formed from the so-called moderates of each party. They might be united around a desire to see a greater spirit of civility and compromise in a government that actually gets more done than constant fighting, but significant ideological differences remain between the two parties, and there isn't always a middle ground to arrive at. What would the party do in terms of these differences? Have the two factions take turns getting their way?
It's far more likely that a 3rd Party would form around a large splinter group from one of the two major parties and attract some defectors, but not a great many, from the other.
Ross Perot's Reform Party, was formed with the intent to draw equally from both parties (Over the years they have run POTUS candidate as distinct from one another as Pat Buchanan (2000) and Ralph Nader (2004)) but in reality it is more a
Rent-A-Party operation than a vehicle for any defining set of principles, let alone a home for "moderates" from both sides of the aisle. An individual with reason and desire to run for POTUS (but no expectation of winning) and who has in-place material monetary backing and a fairly well organized pre-existing and independent political operation connects with the Reform Party and basically takes it over for an election cycle, benefiting from the parties existing licenses, charters, administrative resources, and such.
When Perot founded it and ran for POTUS as its candidate, there was a lot of speculation that he would be getting support and votes from disaffected members of both the Republican and Democrat parties, but, in reality, he drew mainly votes that would have otherwise gone to the GOP candidate, President George H. W. Bush. As a result, Bill Clinton was able to win with a plurality, but not a majority of the popular vote.
If not for
Jughead Perot, we more than likely would never have heard of Whitewater, TravelGate Paula Jones, and Monica Lewinsky and never have seen a trivia quiz that asked what the connection was between cigars, stained blue dresses and the Oval Office. There is also an excellent possibility that we would have had only one President to have been impeached, HRC would never have even run once (and lost) for POTUS, and J. Christopher Stevens, Vince Foster and Seth Rich would still be alive today
not serious! not serious!
The Reform Party neither established itself as viable alternative to the GOP or Democrat Party, nor replaced either one but it was intimately connected to the strange little billionaire from Texas who refrigerated a chunk of human flesh his guard dogs tore off the ass of an intruder who was part of a group of Black Panthers that invaded his ranch on the orders of the North Vietnamese government (and you think Trump tells bizarre tales!) who played a very pivotal role in American history.
Bernie Sanders or a far-left Democrat running for POTUS under the banner of a new or existing third party may not produce the long ranging impact on the US that Perot did, but he or she will guarantee four more years of a Republican president.
