40
   

How will Trump handle losing the election?

 
 
ossobucotemp
 
  2  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:17 pm
@roger,
I don't answer until I know who it is, and even most of that. We are not alone - I read some article which I referred to here after I read it (which article, no link now) about the history of polling, with lots of explanation of pros and cons, one of the typically long articles in the New Yorker. Part of the punch of that was about how many of us don't answer regular phones, as those are going away in handbaskets, and many of the rest of us have in line phones that can give us a clue who is calling. I gather polling doesn't work for smart phones, not sure.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  4  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:20 pm
@blatham,
Quote:
we might expect Trump after the election when many of the controls now apparently in on him will be gone and he could go a bit apeshit.


First preferred outcome - Trump receiving such a publicly humiliating drubbing at the polls that he has to crawl up into Trump Tower, eat bon bons and read the National Enquirer for a month.
Second preferred outcome -what you said. Be fun to watch him act a total idjit on Twitter.
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:25 pm
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  6  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:26 pm
@blatham,
blatham wrote:
That reporting is credible because Trump's tweets over the last two weeks or so are quite unlike what preceded.


had you seen this?

either nimh or alias posted it somewhere

http://varianceexplained.org/r/trump-tweets/

it was fascinating

Quote:
Text analysis of Trump's tweets confirms he writes only the (angrier) Android half


Quote:
When Trump wishes the Olympic team good luck, he’s tweeting from his iPhone. When he’s insulting a rival, he’s usually tweeting from an Android. Is this an artifact showing which tweets are Trump’s own and which are by some handler?

Others have explored Trump’s timeline and noticed this tends to hold up- and Trump himself does indeed tweet from a Samsung Galaxy. But how could we examine it quantitatively? I’ve been writing about text mining and sentiment analysis recently, particularly during my development of the tidytext R package with Julia Silge, and this is a great opportunity to apply it again.

My analysis, shown below, concludes that the Android and iPhone tweets are clearly from different people, posting during different times of day and using hashtags, links, and retweets in distinct ways. What’s more, we can see that the Android tweets are angrier and more negative, while the iPhone tweets tend to be benign announcements and pictures. Overall I’d agree with @tvaziri’s analysis: this lets us tell the difference between the campaign’s tweets (iPhone) and Trump’s own (Android).
revelette2
 
  3  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:27 pm
@Kolyo,
Quote:
Someone who actually votes for Trump does more damage to Clinton's election chances than someone who doesn't vote at all.


Now that one I understand and agree.
0 Replies
 
ossobucotemp
 
  2  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:32 pm
@ehBeth,
Oooooh...
ossobucotemp
 
  3  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 07:38 pm
@ossobucotemp,
If this orange solenoid becomes president, we in the US will be in a serious catastrophe, and it will affect the rest of the world. If he doesn't, we are apt to still be in one, if somewhat less dire. The place is a mess.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  4  
Reply Sun 6 Nov, 2016 09:55 pm
@ehBeth,
I had not seen that analysis. Pretty amazing. I'm seriously delighted that other people have the sort of mind and necessary patience to go to that kind of work.

But I had seen earlier thoughtful commentary on the iPhone/Android bifurcation in the Trump tweets. Nice to see those observations validated.
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  6  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 12:49 am
@blatham,
Quote blatham:
Quote:
Reporting by the Times suggests that Trump's campaign people are disallowing him to do his normal twitter stuff and are writing for him or censoring his tendencies.

So over 40% of the voters are voting for a guy who can't be trusted with a Twitter account?
roger
 
  4  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 01:13 am
@Blickers,
And that would mean that maybe 60% are listening to relatively rational stuff, but only think they know who they are listening to.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 03:16 am
Lewes bonfire night is always pretty spectacular. A lot of Donald Trumps burned that night.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/nintchdbpict000280164526.jpg?w=640&strip=all

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/CA11/production/_92292715_trump.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/02/10/39FAF14600000578-0-image-m-47_1478082885262.jpg

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/16089/production/_92294209_3204e21d-e884-4ea9-b5ec-e0722c86a735.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/05/11/3A14D13D00000578-0-image-a-1_1478344710190.jpg

http://cdn.bignewsnetwork.com/cus1478422764.jpg

Even Osama Bin Laden only merited one guy after 9/11.
blatham
 
  3  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 06:12 am
@Blickers,
Quote:
So over 40% of the voters are voting for a guy who can't be trusted with a Twitter account?

Bit of a shocker, ain't it.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  4  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 06:36 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

Lewes bonfire night is always pretty spectacular. A lot of Donald Trumps burned that night.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/nintchdbpict000280164526.jpg?w=640&strip=all

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/CA11/production/_92292715_trump.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/02/10/39FAF14600000578-0-image-m-47_1478082885262.jpg

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/16089/production/_92294209_3204e21d-e884-4ea9-b5ec-e0722c86a735.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/05/11/3A14D13D00000578-0-image-a-1_1478344710190.jpg

http://cdn.bignewsnetwork.com/cus1478422764.jpg

Even Osama Bin Laden only merited one guy after 9/11.

This antipathy against Trump... Why do they feel it, why do they 'get' it, why is it so acceptable and understandable to express it OVER THERE, but not here, where a Trump presidency would do its (main) damage? I guess in a way what I'm saying is, what the **** is wrong with Americans that this dumpster fire is happening to us?
bobsal u1553115
 
  5  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 06:40 am
@snood,
https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.M859314876b0f5efde18fd9a18a6fb95fo0%26pid%3D15.1&f=1
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 08:15 am
@revelette2,
revelette2 wrote:

Nate Silver has depressed me since the primaries have been over. While he still puts Clinton ahead, it is so filled with uncertainties my stomach starts it tensing...I think in the end I am going to have to see a doctor about it. Apparently it is the undeciders who might decide to go to a third party who will end up giving the Presidency to Trump. If nothing else we will know who to blame but that will be small consolation when our country goes down the tubes.

Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

Nate Silver is not the numbers-based, statistically-rigorous god we once thought he was.

He's actually almost becoming the unskewed polls guy. He ignored the numbers on Trump during the primaries, and got shown up. Now he's so scared of being shown up, he's leaning too far the other direction.


Here's one article discussing it. HuffPost, so meh, but I've read a couple of other articles alleging the same thing: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

And Silver's response: http://www.mediaite.com/online/nate-silver-goes-to-war-with-huffpost-writer-after-highly-critical-column/
parados
 
  3  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 08:28 am
@DrewDad,
And here is The Onion's response.

Nate Silver Gunned Down Attempting To Cross Mexican Border With All 2016 Polling Data
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  4  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 08:36 am
Stock markets up sharply at opening Monday. Dow up 200 points as financial markets anticipate Clinton will defeat Trump.
revelette2
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 09:07 am
Aw well, I actually don't want to get into those squabbles, I still like Nate Silvers, no one is right 100% of the time. And actually his last post made a lot of sense about how things could go wrong. I actually haven't like huffingtonspost for a while now. But anyway, I'll read both before getting off here.
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 09:16 am
I've been wondering what Trump was going to say, typical response.

Quote:
Speaking for the first time on the FBI’s statement saying they had found no criminal activity in new Hillary Clinton emails, Donald Trump said he doubts the agency could have really reviewed all the missives in time. “You can’t review 650,000 new emails in eight days,” Trump said Sunday night in Sterling Heights, MI. “You can’t do it, folks.”

His comment echoed his campaign manager Kellyanne Conway’s position on television hours earlier: “Do you think that they went through hundreds of thousands of emails in a week?” Conway said on MSNBC. “Because that may strike a lot of Americans as unusual.”

In FBI director James Comey’s Sunday statement, he said the FBI “has been working around the clock” to process the emails, and that they were only reviewing emails sent to and from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State. (The emails were found on the laptop of Clinton aide Huma Abedin’s estranged husband, former congressman Anthony Weiner.) CNN also reports that many of the newly discovered emails were personal notes unrelated to the investigation or duplicates of what had already been seen.

But Trump’s theory goes farther than skepticism about FBI agents’ ability to check all the emails. He also said the FBI actually found Clinton to be guilty of a crime and withheld it from the public. “Hillary Clinton is guilty,” he said in Michigan. “She knows it, the FBI knows it, the people know it. And now it is up to the American people to deliver justice at the ballot box on Nov. 8.”


source

I wasn't even this angry when the Florida Supreme Court stopped the counting of votes in 2000. Trump, the FBI and Trump supporters/mouthpieces have just disgusted me so much it has literally made me sick.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Mon 7 Nov, 2016 09:27 am
@snood,
He's hated, but there's lots of things we don't get, like opposition to UHC, support of the 2nd amendment, food additives. It's very hard for me to get my head around.
 

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