How will Trump handle losing the election?

@Brand X,

I'm not sure why you repeat what Trump has said has any meaning. It's been proven by Politifact and other sources that Trump lies 91% (or more) of the time.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/03/31/ninety-one-percent-donald-trump-false.html

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@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

From where I'm sitting it looks like Trump is cruising to a guaranteed victory. The 2013 gun control debacle sealed the deal.

Why do you think that none of the predictive models or betting markets agree with you?

When I keep telling you that you seem to base this prediction on wishful thinking and inordinate strength of conviction this is what I am talking about, the "data" I refer that you ignore is the polling data. I know that you are basing your prediction on the "data" that "the 2013 gun control debacle sealed the deal" but that is not borne out by any data-driven model. That's why I keep mentioning the bets to you, not to goad you into losing money but to show you that your strength of conviction about this is not shared by people putting their money where their mouth is or by people using statistical analysis of polling data to predict the election results. Thusly you are ignoring the data, in that you are ignoring the important data and glomming onto what you wish will be important. You are hoping that your feelings on gun control are shared by enough people to have the result you predict but no actual data supports that conclusion.

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he will go into derp spiral ...

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@Robert Gentel,

Robert Gentel wrote:

Why do you think that none of the predictive models or betting markets agree with you?

I think it's because they are wrong.

Robert Gentel wrote:

When I keep telling you that you seem to base this prediction on wishful thinking and inordinate strength of conviction this is what I am talking about, the "data" I refer that you ignore is the polling data. I know that you are basing your prediction on the "data" that "the 2013 gun control debacle sealed the deal" but that is not borne out by any data-driven model. That's why I keep mentioning the bets to you, not to goad you into losing money but to show you that your strength of conviction about this is not shared by people putting their money where their mouth is or by people using statistical analysis of polling data to predict the election results. Thusly you are ignoring the data, in that you are ignoring the important data and glomming onto what you wish will be important.

Let's compare notes in 2033 and see if the Republicans haven't just won five presidential elections in a row.

(If I'm still alive after the nuclear war that is.) Neutral

Robert Gentel wrote:

You are hoping that your feelings on gun control are shared by enough people to have the result you predict but no actual data supports that conclusion.

My conclusion is not based on feelings about gun control. My conclusion is based on Mr. Obama not having advanced a legislative agenda through Congress for six years, which will result in the voters wanting change so badly that we are guaranteed to kick the incumbent party out of the White House. The force that I am counting on is the voters' desire for change. The 2013 gun control debacle is important because it is what caused this legislative wasteland, which is then what caused the great desire for change in the voters.

My conclusions regarding future Republican victories are from a different thought process. I believe that once he gets in the White House, Trump's anti-trade policies will prove so popular with the working class that Republican presidents will be voted into office over and over again by supporting Trump's anti-trade policies. (Reaganite Republicans are screwed; it's not their party anymore.) Were there to be a "normal" Republican candidate right now, I would not be predicting this huge string of Republican victories. I'd just predict a normal Republican presidency with everything becoming up for grabs again after 4 or 8 years. This is also why I only started predicting this huge string of victories after Trump won the New Hampshire primary and it suddenly dawned on me that he was actually going to be our next president.

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@izzythepush,

izzythepush wrote:

Being white and hetero isn't much protection against a nuclear confrontation.

No kidding. It really sucks that the guy who will defend my gun rights is also going to get me killed in a nuclear war.

But what can you do. If that's what it takes to keep my guns, that's what it takes.

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OMG now a GOP big namer is coming out to fundraise for Clinton!!

GOP Heavyweight Meg Whitman To Fundraise For Clinton To Take Down ‘Demagogue’ Trump

I feel kind of bad for Trump and his followers.......

Smile

Not!

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Predicting what Trump will do post-loss probably ought to be based on past behaviors. And for a very telling look at that, one ought to watch this incredible piece by Maddow interviewing Garry Trudea, who has been covering Trump for a long while. Trump, you'll see, is consistent in his behavior and in his rhetorical moves: http://on.msnbc.com/2aEBoJp

Jespah gets the tone/behavior quite well. And Robert's take is close to mine. The Palin precedent demonstrates how the scam can be run and Trump is way better at it than she was.

I can't see how he gets out of the debates. I doubt he wants to get out of them. He'll be center stage in a manner he dreams of and, apparently, needs as a function of his unique pathology. He'll interrupt, bully, be "politically incorrect", evade, boast, slander and lie. None of that is a problem for him. It's his mode of operation.

I can't see how he quits (and unless he does, the dudes on the right can't get rid of him). What he wants to avoid (however consciously or not) is ego-damage and brand-damage. Quitting would set him up too clearly as being subjugated - by a woman. So he'll run and lose.

And that's when the shitstorm hits. How ugly he behaves is definitely a question. Voter fraud, rigged election, unfair press, GOP trying to tear him down, lazy voters, proof that America is a dung-heap and heading for worse - all that and more will be spit out. "America could have been great! It could have been amazing! Millions voted for me. There's never been anything like it! But you proud, patriotic Americans who voted for me - and I love you! I really do! - got shafted. Don't take it lying down. Reject this corrupt system before its too late. Maybe its already too late. I fear it is".

He'll maintain a following just as Palin did for years. And he'll scam them for every penny he can get, as Palin did and as he's always done. He won't drop out of sight.

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@blatham,

Trump is a sociopath, and that will come through. His mouth is his worst enemy. He doesn't know when to shut up.

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@blatham,

Quote:

I can't see how he gets out of the debates. I doubt he wants to get out of them. He'll be center stage in a manner he dreams of and, apparently, needs as a function of his unique pathology. He'll interrupt, bully, be "politically incorrect", evade, boast, slander and lie. None of that is a problem for him. It's his mode of operation.

I agree with everything else you said except I have a bit of a difference with you here. I base my opinion on the way he cowered at the prospect of getting into another debate involving Megan Kelly after she publicly bested him. I think he just cannot handle the thought of being shown up by a woman, and I think he thinks Hillary could very well show him up at the debates in a big way.
So, I still think there's a chance he will try to severely limit the scope of the debates, or that he comes up with a semi-plausible excuse to duck the debates entirely.

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@snood,

It might turn out you are right, snood. Even Garry Trudeau, who clearly got this guy right a long while ago, has been flummoxed by aspects of this campaign (thought perhaps more so with his support rather than his behaviors). As I've said earlier, I am mesmerized by this cycle.

Edit: But Trump will attempt to bully those running the debates (as he always does) and attempt to shape them in a manner that benefits him (or at least how he presumes he'll be benefited) and the media covering them. He'll try to set up a framing that his base will readily accept that he is going to be maltreated - "So don't be surprised if all the media say I lost. I already know that's what they'll say because that's what they always say. Believe me".

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@blatham,

blatham wrote:

What he wants to avoid (however consciously or not) is ego-damage and brand-damage. Quitting would set him up too clearly as being subjugated - by a woman. So he'll run and lose.

I'm pretty sure his pathology will protect his ego. Whatever happens, he will be able spin it as some kind of "win."

Company went bankrupt? Well, he did fine out of it. He looked out for number one, and the rest of the suckers can just watch out for themselves next time.

Lost a debate? Well, it brought in yuge ratings, and he did great, anyway.

Lost the election? Well, he'll have made money off of the campaign (regardless of the actual numbers), and gets to write a book and parlay it into TV appearances.

blatham wrote:

He'll maintain a following just as Palin did for years. And he'll scam them for every penny he can get, as Palin did and as he's always done. He won't drop out of sight.

Exactly.

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@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

Robert Gentel wrote:
Why do you think that none of the predictive models or betting markets agree with you?

I think it's because they are wrong.

Yet you do not want to exploit this belief to make big money? You must on some level recognize that the strength of conviction you espouse here is inordinate because if a rational person truly believed what you said they would take out loans, do whatever they could, to exploit the oddsmakers error.

But that you do not do so means that there is some part of you that understands that your "certainty" expressed here is not enough to put your money where your mouth is. And that these things are probabilities at best and expressed by odds, not certainties.

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@DrewDad,

Sounds spot on to me! He's a narcissist with only one goal; himself.

Here's an interesting dilemma for the GOP: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/senior-gop-officials-exploring-options-trump-drops-133358796--abc-news-topstories.html

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@DrewDad,

Quote:

I'm pretty sure his pathology will protect his ego. Whatever happens, he will be able spin it as some kind of "win."

No arguing with that.

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Paul Waldman has a relevant post up now http://wapo.st/2aIYVsH

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@DrewDad,

Quote:

I'm pretty sure his pathology will protect his ego. Whatever happens, he will be able spin it as some kind of "win."

And like everyone else, I've also been fed so much of Trump getting away with saying ridiculous, deal-breaking things and then spinning the aftermath to look like the aggrieved party. So the scenario you framed above, wherein he is able to spin anything to look like a victory for himself (certainly to his rabid followers, if no one else), is very easy to imagine.

Which is why my fondest, most precious wish for this election season is that Donald Trump receives devastating public humiliation. In a sane and decent world, he would so richly deserve that. In my dream of a just world, he gets panned across the world so badly that he has to seek extended, intense help to avoid emotional breakdown. This would give the world a rest from the disgusting, self-interested, dangerous puke. And it would make the world a little safer.

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@snood,

Wow, DrewDad, that was a great piece.

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@Robert Gentel,

Muslims are not allowed to gamble, perhaps that's it.

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@snood,

snood wrote:

I agree with everything else you said except I have a bit of a difference with you here. I base my opinion on the way he cowered at the prospect of getting into another debate involving Megan Kelly after she publicly bested him. I think he just cannot handle the thought of being shown up by a woman, and I think he thinks Hillary could very well show him up at the debates in a big way.
So, I still think there's a chance he will try to severely limit the scope of the debates, or that he comes up with a semi-plausible excuse to duck the debates entirely.

I don't think Megan Kelly bested him. And I suspect that Mr. Trump holds the same view.

I doubt that Mr. Trump wants to duck out of the debates. I think the Left are deluding themselves with all the speculation that's been going around about him being afraid to debate. I think Mr. Trump wants to maximize the debates so that he gets as many viewers as possible, and that is why he is trying to force them to hold the debates when they will not be competing with a football game for viewers.

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@Robert Gentel,

Robert Gentel wrote:

Yet you do not want to exploit this belief to make big money?

I'm ambivalent. Plus, I don't see the opportunity for big money. I looked up the possibilities when we talked about this a few months ago, and the potential for huge profits seemed pretty limited.

Robert Gentel wrote:

You must on some level recognize that the strength of conviction you espouse here is inordinate because if a rational person truly believed what you said they would take out loans, do whatever they could, to exploit the oddsmakers error.

But that you do not do so means that there is some part of you that understands that your "certainty" expressed here is not enough to put your money where your mouth is. And that these things are probabilities at best and expressed by odds, not certainties.

I've repeatedly acknowledged that I could indeed be wrong.

Odds are that I'm not wrong. But it is certainly possible.

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How will Trump handle losing the election?

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