Let's talk about replacing GWBush in 2004.

In evaluating the upcoming election, the most important number to remember right now is the Bush Regime's "re-elect" percentage, which currently stands below 50%.

That's right. The "popular wartime preznit" isn't even pulling a majority. And we've seen how fast those numbers fade when a crisis atmosphere wanes. They are pitiful now, considering that the Unelected Fraud has come under virtually no criticism in the last several weeks.

Before the war, following only a few weeks of gloves-off criticism, 'the Democrat' pulled ahead with stunning speed. This is important to consider, because there is likely to be relentless criticism from now until election day - without apologies, if candidates Kerry and Dean are any indication - criticism we now know with certainty the Unelected Fraud's failed regime cannot withstand absent a phony atmosphere of extreme crisis.

It is not the ideologues and partisans who finally determine the outcome of elections but a segment of 10-20% of voters who are constantly "up for grabs," and who, in the absence of perceiving an immediate threat of losing their income, tend to be moved by vulgar appeals to their basest emotions (particularly anger, fear, and phony outrage). These fickle voters are currently wild about Dubya. But there is every reason to believe the latest national bout of Severe Acute Right-wing Syndrome won't last, if one considers what is known about the nature of the Moron-American. Keep the following in mind before you decide Bush is likely to ever win a presidential election:

**Moron-Americans don't care about the fate of swarthy people. While they enjoy crediting themselves with the "liberation" of Iraqis today, majorities made up of conservatives and Moron-Americans consistently say they do not believe the US has a "national interest" in the fates of other people. For example, it became necessary for President Clinton to emphasize geopolitical, national defense concerns to win even moderate support for putting an end to the ongoing genocide of "foreigners."

**Moron-Americans were gullible enough to believe Saddam posed an imminent threat to the US, but that belief is unlikely to last long as the criticism of the war and its costs continues (which it will), particularly if quantities of WMDs found are less than impressive.

**The "war" didn't last long enough and it was neither shocking nor awesome enough to make a lasting impression on the Moron-American community that would ensure their gratitude for what they were sold in the weeks leading up to it by the cable news networks, with their suspense-filled promos and 3-D graphics of cool weaponry: an exciting new TV series brought to you by Bush, Inc. (Sopranos fans recall last season's episode in which consummate Moron-Americans Ralphie and Janice were shown in bed with a bowl of popcorn, enjoying footage of war death on TV. This commentary on the mentality of not a small percentage of American people and, frighteningly, American voters, "worked" because of its accuracy.)

**Eventually, provided Democrats can successfully convey the message in simple terms, Moron-American voters might come to recognize what hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the pipe dreams of insane geriatric neocon chickenhawks means in terms of their own health care, taxes, and national security.

**The strategy of the Bush regime for election 2004 looks more like something straight out of 1984 every day and with each new mention of Iran and Syria (but not Cuba, China, or North Korea) by various members of the Viagra Vigilantes: perpetual war with foreigners who look and dress similarly to the people who attacked the US on 9/11.

There are many reasons to believe this strategy will fail, not least of which is the fact that there are a few excellent Democratic presidential candidates who are onto the disastrous scheme, onto the tactics of Chemical Tom DeLay, and onto the media whores, and who have shown they are not afraid to criticize the Unelected Fraud as he wages a series of phony wars for the purpose of deflecting criticism from a failed economy, the fraud committed by his corporate benefactors, and the lies and corruption tht pervade this government, extending from the executive through the legislative to the judicial branch.

And the dissent-crushing is as fascistic and frantic as ever. The pro-war wingnuts' hysteria over the Dixie Chicks, the Robbins, Sarandons, Garafolos, Moores, etc. continues unabated. A mighty strange reaction to having just won a "moral, just, and necessary" war, no?

The truth is, despite varying degrees of denial, they too are aware of the Big Lie, and understand that if even only a relatively miniscule proportion of opposing voices are allowed to be heard, the fragile mythology they have built around this regime and are desperately trying to preserve and promote - the one to which they have just sacrificed over a hundred US servicemen and thousands of Iraqi civilians, not to mention the credibility and moral authority of the US around the world - can be shattered.

This, combined with the fact that liberals and Democrats always benefit from having the truth on their side regarding virtually every policy issue - an advantage that guarantees them the votes of more responsible citizens who revere traditional American principles - suggests Governor Bush is destined to be a No-Termer.

This, combined with the fact that liberals and Democrats always benefit from having the truth on their side regarding virtually every policy issue - an advantage that guarantees them the votes of more responsible citizens who revere traditional American principles - suggests Governor Bush is destined to be a No-Termer.

The last shot of the war in Iraq will be the starting pistol for two further campaigns by the administration of President George W Bush. One will be fought in the region: no one really believes America's project is confined to Iraq. The toppling of Saddam is first base in what Michael Ledeen, leading thinker among the neo-conservatives driving foreign policy, calls 'a war to remake the world'.

The second front will be the home one: unlike his father - who lost an election the year after driving Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait - President George Bush junior has also to win what former Clinton aide Sidney Blumenthal promises to be a resumption of 'partisan warfare' at home.

If he succeeds in both campaigns, he will have become the most powerful President in US history, both at home and across the new Imperium of which victory in Iraq is the first footprint.