@oralloy,
oralloy wrote: "I think Iraqi/Syrian Sunnis would be willing to have a non-radical, non-IS state."
Suppose this to be the case. Is the public at large fighting the Syrian civil war, or are militant rebel groups? Are the militant rebel groups mostly secular or mostly religious? Are the most numerous, experienced, well-equipped and militarily successful militant rebel groups religiously moderate and supportive of western liberal values, or dedicated to the establishment of an Islamic theocracy?
Will a war-weary Syrian public take up arms in response to a gradual erosion of rights and gradual imposition of Sharia law, as planned by the more pragmatic al-Nusra (in contrast to ISIS)? Or will they support the "temporary" rule by military authorities, as a watchdog against counterrevolution by the Assad regime, with promises of elections that are postponed indefinitely, never occur, or are subverted through fraud and intimidation?
Iran's revolution began as a coalition movement dominated by liberals and leftists. It ended with disaffected liberals opting out of the government in protest, and armed Islamic militias taking control and implementing a block-watch system of informants to arrest democratic (and other) conspirators before they could effectively organize and act.
oralloy: "...if we carve large sections of Syria and Iraq into independent states, the civil war will be confined to a smaller area in the future."
Again, where will the legal authority for the carving of sovereign governments come from? Will the Shiite government of Iraq and the Iranians go along with this in the long-term? In Syria, quite aside from Assad or his successors, the Russians, the Iranians, and Hezbollah, eventually this grand military coalition will have to withdraw. Will this imposed balkanization remain stable, or will militant groups eager to see their vision ("free" or "Islamic" depending) resume the hostilities we interrupted, as they did after we left Iraq?
How many times do western governments and publics have to invade, establish "democratic" governing bodies, withdraw after bloody and prolonged conflict, watch as the process repeats itself, and commit themselves to the same failed strategies yet again? I'll hold the football and you kick it, Charlie Brown. I blame the jingoistic television media for failing to provide institutional memory and for reflexively forgetting caution after the latest terrorist outrage to occur. Over and over again.