80
   

When will Hillary Clinton give up her candidacy ?

 
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Wed 3 Feb, 2016 07:08 pm
@maporsche,
Much thanks for your illuminating post on the minimum wage in restaurants in the Seattle area, as well as the link:
http://www.grubstreet.com/2016/01/seattle-restaurant-jobs-increase.html#

I unfairly characterized you in previous posts as ideological, I now see that you take each issue at a time and decide the pluses and minuses.
Blickers
 
  1  
Wed 3 Feb, 2016 07:10 pm
@ehBeth,
Much thanks, ehBeth. I hope you keep being your bright and insightful self as well.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  2  
Wed 3 Feb, 2016 09:33 pm
@Blickers,
I don't think I'm ideological at all; I think both sides have valid points and positions at times and when there is data to support them it's kind of a no-brainer.

If the data is murky or unclear (or unavailable) then I tend to lean towards less government intrusion (which could mean less wars, less laws, or less regulation).

I just try to consider both sides and choose the one that helps the most people without pissing off too many.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  3  
Wed 3 Feb, 2016 09:36 pm
@ehBeth,
awww.... Very Happy

I imagine I'll be around for much of the year. My online forum participation is closely aligned with election season it seems.

I've read a tiny bit about the forums maybe changing...maybe that will keep me around longer (I'm most excited about the changes to support mobile browsers or even a smartphone app...I was asking for that years ago).
ossobuco
 
  1  
Wed 3 Feb, 2016 10:25 pm
@maporsche,
Me, I'm still waiting to find out how your bicycle trip went.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 09:16 am
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:


You said that more people were working before Obama took office and that wages were lower. I produced a chart showing that there Millions more working Full Time, and that inflation-adjusted median weekly pay was higher. You dismissed the Full Time chart as being beside the point. I produced the chart for all jobs, Full Time and Part Time. Your response? I don't grasp the whole picture and I'm a waste of time to talk to.

If you are going to build an idea upon other ideas, then it is relevant to examine each idea as you go along. If someone is building a bridge and one of the supports is located in quicksand, it's a good idea to let the builders know before they open the bridge and cars start driving into the river. Sorry if my examination, using charts, throws your overall grand vision into problems, but that is what discussion is for, isn't it? Especially when your ideas, like the one discussed, is frequently bandied about as truth by a large group of people. Why shouldn't I debunk it, and why shouldn't I use charts from reliable sources to do so? I thought that was what the forum was about.


Perhaps I'm beginning to understand this strange dialogue. You are expending a lot of energy arguing against things I never wrote and don't even believe, though perhaps you imagine I do.

I did NOT write "that more people were working working before Obama took office and/or that wages were (sic) lower " as you asserted. Instead I had noted that, compared to previous post recession revoveries over the past six decades this one was slower, with lower rates of GDP growth and lower rises in employment and wage growth than in previous ones. Cicerone responded saying that with a 5% curent unemployment rate I was clearly wrong and that things were fine. I was bemused by his use of such a single measure to counter a much broader point, but simply responded reminding him that the workforce participation rate was now decidedly lower than its pre-recession value and that, because of that, his cited current unemployment rate didn't tell the whole story. On that point I am certainly correct.

There followed a storm of posts from you, with tables and charts mostly derived from the BLS web site (I'm not good at the art of extracting and pasting their charts and tables here --- I simply read them for the information.) You made a number of mostly accurate assertions on peripheral matters, but never addressed what I really wrote. One noted the rise in total employment which you triumphantly asserted proved me wrong. I responded noting that the reported gain in total employment you noted was real and accurate, however the rate of employment growth implied by your data was less than one-half the rate of population growth in the country during that period, a fact which is consistent with my point about the workforce participation rate.

I have the impression that you like little "victories" of this sort and enjoy keeping score. That's your call and it's OK with me. However it doesn't do much to make you an interesting partner for a dialogue. I find it very tiresome and even a bit stupid.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 11:17 am
@parados,
More than 50 times. Funny how people can't see their own party's misdeeds in congress.
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 11:29 am
@georgeob1,
Quote George:
Quote:
I did NOT write "that more people were working working before Obama took office and/or that wages were (sic) lower " as you asserted.


To briefly recap the conversation of the last several pages, I accurately posted that when Obama first started, the country had LOST 6 Million Full Time jobs the previous year and now the country has GAINED 2.5 Million Full Time jobs in the last 12 months and 5 Million the past two years. Cicerone Imposter then posted that the Unemployment Rate was the lowest in7 years. Obama has been in office 7 years. So this conversation, including yourself, was about the performance of the economy under the Obama Administration. That's when you posted that the Labor Force Participation Rate was not good enough to say the economy has done well, and also posted the following golden words.

Quote geoprgeob1:
Quote:
Fewer people are working and average wages are down.

http://able2know.org/topic/275175-198#post-6118328

Since the context was the Obama Administration, the reader has to assume that "then" you referred to was the period before Obama took office, for that was the period under discussion. Stop trying to weasel your way out of this, george, and take responsibility for your own posts. Mr. Green


georgeob1
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 12:21 pm
@Blickers,
You can define "the context" anyway you want: so can I .In any event it was clear that your direct responses to my unambiguous comments about the workforce participation rate were off the mark, self-serving, and a bit evasiive. This has been much adoo about very little and it is you, not me who has been beating the drum.
Blickers
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 12:25 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
One noted the rise in total employment which you triumphantly asserted proved me wrong. I responded noting that the reported gain in total employment you noted was real and accurate, however the rate of employment growth implied by your data was less than one-half the rate of population growth in the country during that period, a fact which is consistent with my point about the workforce participation rate.


So? You have just shown that you know nothing of what the Labor Force Participation actually is, since it is NOT about population growth, (how many babies are being born), but about people who are 16-64 and are employed or looking for a job. Homemakers, soccer moms, students, military people, people in mental instutions, prisons and such are not counted. Neither are people under 65 who are retired. Don't even talk to me about the Labor Force Participation Rate unless you are ready to talk about the numbers of people in the groups who are NOT counted, otherwise you are carrying on a deception.

Shame on you, George.
cicerone imposter
 
  3  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 12:27 pm
@georgeob1,
From the Social Security Administration.
Quote:
The labor force participation rates of men and women aged 62–79 have notably increased since the mid-1990s. The result is a dramatic increase in the share of total money income attributable to earnings. For persons aged 65–69, the earnings share of total income increased from 28 percent in 1980 to 42 percent in 2009. For this age group in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Social Security benefits and earnings were roughly equal shares of total money income (about 30 percent); the earnings share is now more than 12 percentage points larger. When we focus on aged persons who receive Social Security benefits, earnings shares have increased markedly throughout the 62–79 age range since the early 1990s. We show that for aged persons with labor market earnings, those earnings have a large effect on their relative position in the distribution of annual money income of older Americans.
Blickers
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 12:29 pm
@georgeob1,
Sorry again, george, but the conversation between you, Cicerone Imposter and myself was dealing with the economy for the past seven years when you said, and I quote:
Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
Fewer people are working and average wages are down.


So I employed charts from reliable sources showing you were wrong. Sorry for ruffling your feathers, but it's only a message board. Dust yourself off, and get them next time, and all that. Very Happy
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 02:00 pm
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:

So? You have just shown that you know nothing of what the Labor Force Participation actually is, since it is NOT about population growth, (how many babies are being born), but about people who are 16-64 and are employed or looking for a job. Homemakers, soccer moms, students, military people, people in mental instutions, prisons and such are not counted. Neither are people under 65 who are retired. Don't even talk to me about the Labor Force Participation Rate unless you are ready to talk about the numbers of people in the groups who are NOT counted, otherwise you are carrying on a deception.

Shame on you, George.


What nonsense ! I agree the work force population rate is not about population growth. However its value over time is indeed a measure of the relative difference between population growth (or more precisely the growth of the 16-65 year cadre of the population and) the growth of total employment. That should be obvious to any thinking observer (if not to you) !

No shame on me! I'll explain it to you ... slowly

If total employment is rising at about 0.7%/year and the population is growing at over twice that rate, then the cadre of 16-64 population is likely growing at something close to that of the population, and, based on that alone, one can conclude that the work force participation rate is likely falling. Indeed the BLS data confirms this in that the current rate is now over 3% below its fairly constant rate during the decade that preceeded the recession that greeted Obama when he took office. The rate has been falling steadily since 2009 and now, at 62.4%, has reached its lowest level in almost 40 years - a time in which our military was much larger, both absolutely and relative to the total population, than it is now.

The details of what constitutes non participation (retirement, mlitary service, soccer moms etc.) are usually slowly changing and irrelevant. Whether one counts down from the total 16-64 by counting non participants or counts up counting job holders or seekers, one gets the same result.

There is no deception here, only clear, level-headed analysis .... and some thought & reflection. I believe you would be well-advised to try that some time.
Blickers
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 02:22 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote Cicerone Imposter:
Quote:
From the Social Security Administration.

Quote:
Quote:
The labor force participation rates of men and women aged 62–79 have notably increased since the mid-1990s. The result is a dramatic increase in the share of total money income attributable to earnings. For persons aged 65–69, the earnings share of total income increased from 28 percent in 1980 to 42 percent in 2009. For this age group in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Social Security benefits and earnings were roughly equal shares of total money income (about 30 percent); the earnings share is now more than 12 percentage points larger. When we focus on aged persons who receive Social Security benefits, earnings shares have increased markedly throughout the 62–79 age range since the early 1990s. We show that for aged persons with labor market earnings, those earnings have a large effect on their relative position in the distribution of annual money income of older Americans.


Great post, and very illuminating about how the shifts in percentage of people past 60 and their increase in income show that the Labor Force Participation Rate today vs a few years ago is not indicative of the overall health of the economy. (Wish I knew how to make the Thumbs Up sign).
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  3  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 07:01 pm
I had to come back to point out Obama's new tax proposal on gas consumption. As always, the tax is on the working people, not the wealthy. That is all.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 07:08 pm
@edgarblythe,
You mean "regressive tax?"
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2016 08:14 pm
For fans of Garry Wills (I'm one) and/or EJ Dionne (me again) you will definitely want to read this review of EJ's latest in the NYRB
Quote:
William F. Buckley founded National Review to give some order and literary polish to this cacophonous [conservative] jumble. But his magazine had a small audience at the outset. Its basic message would reach a far wider audience through a widely popular book, The Conscience of a Conservative, ghostwritten for Barry Goldwater by Buckley’s brother-in-law (and his coauthor for McCarthy and His Enemies), L. Brent Bozell.

The idea for the book came from Clarence Manion, the former dean of Notre Dame Law School. He persuaded Goldwater to have Bozell, who had been his speechwriter, put his thoughts together in book form. Then Manion organized his own and other right-wing media to promote and give away thousands of copies of the book. Bozell did his part too—he went to a board meeting of the John Birch Society and persuaded Fred Koch (father of Charles and David Koch) to buy 2,500 copies of Conscience for distribution. The book put Goldwater on the cover of Time three years before he ran for president. A Draft Goldwater Committee was already in existence then (led by William Rusher of National Review, F. Clifton White, and John Ashbrook). Patrick Buchanan spoke for many conservatives when he called The Conscience of a Conservative their “New Testament.”

The Goldwater book, Dionne says, had all the basic elements of the Tea Party movement, fully articulated fifty years before the Koch brothers funded the Tea Party through their organizations Americans for Prosperity and Freedomworks. The book painted government as the enemy of liberty.
http://bit.ly/1QJDUeO
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Fri 5 Feb, 2016 02:32 am
@georgeob1,
Quote Cicerone Imposter:
Quote:
According to (I think it was) CNNMoney, the current 5% unemployment is considered a healthy economy.

Quote georgeob1, in response:
Quote:
Considered by whom? Have you taken the reduction in work force participation into account?


Clearly, you consider the Labor Force Participation Rate the important standard of economic health. Unfortunately, you don't know much about it, and this "realization" of yours would appear to come from the right wing media, which is always harping on this single figure. For example:
Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
I agree the work force population rate is not about population growth. However its value over time is indeed a measure of the relative difference between population growth (or more precisely the growth of the 16-65 year cadre of the population and) the growth of total employment.

No, actually it is not, as I explained before. The Labor Force Participation Rate only measures the percentage of people who are either working or looking for a job. People in the military, people in jail or rehab centers, etc are not part of the ratio. If any of those excluded factors I just mentioned goes up or down significantly, the relationship of the Labor Force Participation Rate to population growth is destroyed. If more people stay in school, whether high school or college, and are not working, the Labor Force Participation Rate goes down. If a big group of people who were employed become unemployed, the Labor Force Participation Rate stays the same. Not much of an indicator of health.

Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
The details of what constitutes non participation (retirement, mlitary service, soccer moms etc.) are usually slowly changing and irrelevant.

Again, you got that wrong. Over-65 retirees are exempted from the count, which goes through age 64. Under-65 retirees are counted as those who are not looking for a job, as are soccer moms. Active military personnel are exempted from the count as well. Students, whether high school or college, are not exempted from the count.

Besides, there is a DIFFERENT statistic which actually does measure the relation of population growth to the number of jobs, the Employment-Population Ratio. It doesn't make exceptions for retired people, jailbirds, rehabbers or any of the others. It's just the ratio of the number of employed people to the population, (minus convicts and those on active duty in the Armed Services). It even includes very old people, unless limited by age in the title.

I have included a chart which gives the employment population ratio since 1993, for the prime working years, age 25-54. This is a much, much better example of the relationship to population increase to employment than what you were trying to use.

http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/ah279/LeviStubbs/Employment%20Populatin%20ratio%2025-54%20%201993%20thru%202015_zpsktizndmn.jpg

As you can see, employment in the prime working age is now higher than when Obama took over in the middle of the job hemorrhage of 2008-9, and it is clearly headed up even higher.

This a chart of a healthy economy.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  0  
Fri 5 Feb, 2016 05:01 pm
Hillary and Bill Clinton, busted for creating and profiting from the New Jim Crow.

http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2016/01/29/23497407/new-jim-crow-author-michelle-alexander-on-hillary-clintons-embrace-of-mass-incarceration
parados
 
  2  
Fri 5 Feb, 2016 06:28 pm
@Lash,
I guess you missed this part of the story you quoted..

Quote:
Hillary strongly advocated for her husband's 1994 crime bill, which built more prisons and extended prison sentences (and which Bernie Sanders voted for)


Damn that Hillary. She is just like Bernie except Bernie actually voted for it.
 

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