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Just Curious. What Are You?

 
 
izzythepush
 
  0  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 09:04 am
@Olivier5,
It was a council election, and they've got 136 councillors, (up from 2,) latest figures. The main parties are all shook up and there's talk of them getting MPs next year, and we still don't know how they've done in the Euros because we're not allowed to count until Sunday.

I don't think this is a good thing.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 09:09 am
@ehBeth,
Yeah, that is bullshit. In the 1860 election, Lincoln won the presidency without polling a majority of the electorate. He was one of four candidates. This sort of thing was common before 1860, when there were frequently three and even four parties fielding candidates.

What happened in the United States was not a product of some phony claim about what can be mathematically proven. After 1865, the Republicans and the Democrats colluded to create a system which would enshrine their power, and exclude third and fourth parties. The primary elections system (which can reasonably be seen as just the first round of voting) is the most obvious of their ploys. Requiring that people register to vote with a party affiliation is another. The constitution was amended to provide for the popular election of Senators, despite the best efforts of the two major parties, just because of this problem. But with the death grip the two parties have on state politics, the primary system and affiliated voter registration, it was too little too late.

Olive Tree is always making up **** like this. I'd be interested to see a link to his mathematically proof.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 12:31 pm
@izzythepush,
So they don't have one single MP yet... If one considers that a good electoral system should allow for a faithful expression of the views of the people through the ballot box, a good case can be made that UKIP has been disadvantaged by the current system, no? The same argument can probably be made for other small UK parties.

I am for giving a premium to big parties because too many small parties make for unmanageable coalitions. But it does seems to me that the "one round, first past the post" electoral system is just too simplistic and crude, and leads to massive distortions of the electorate wishes, like when Nader's candidacy made certain that Gore would loose to Bush.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 12:53 pm
@Setanta,
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law

It's just common sense...If there is only one round, any vote for someone else than the two top contenders is a vote wasted...
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 01:12 pm
@Olivier5,
From your own source:
Quote:
Duverger himself did not regard his principle as absolute. Instead he suggested that plurality would act to delay the emergence of a new political force and would accelerate the elimination of a weakening force[12] — PR would have the opposite effect.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 01:59 pm
@Olivier5,
Reading about common sense from you is hilarious. Tell me again how the appearance of spear throwers in one little group in one corner of Europe is evidence that homo sapiens exterminated all other hominids. See Walter's comment.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 02:03 pm
By the way, you said it could be mathematically proven--a dubious thesis, for which there are many contradicting examples, advanced by a single individual does not constitute mathematical proof. You need to be a good deal more careful about how you express your cherished shibboleths.
0 Replies
 
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 02:10 pm
meanwhile, back to the topic, i've narrowed down what i am to one of two choices



or


0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 03:11 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Nor do I, but the principle remains valid by and large. That's why the US has a 2 party system. The only realistic way to change that is to change the constitution to allow for a more representative electoral system... People can whine all they want, and they can try and create alternative parties or vote for independent candidates all they want. And a few of those may get elected now and then, here or there, but in the grand scheme of things, the 2 party system is here to stay, because a first-past-the-post voting system gives a strong incentive to vote for the biggest parties.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 May, 2014 09:31 pm
@Olivier5,
that isn't mathematical evidence and it's not the on-the-ground reality

Canada sees 3 and 4 parties switch and change lead roles with surprising regularity.

I prefer minority governments by far - a lot more is accomplished when there are minorities. People have to compromise and move things forward in minority governments.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 03:19 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
That's why the US has a 2 party system.


No it's not. You are profoundly ignorant of the history of the United States. Initially, there were no political parties, and the concept of a political party did not exist then, anywhere. Even in England, Tories and Whigs were just labels attached for convenience of identification, and no coherent political parties then existed, especially with all the implications of control and adherence to an ideological program and a legislative platform which is understood today. Washington spoke out publicly against "faction," as it was then known, and many people agreed with him--but it was a naïve position to take.

The ratification of the constitution lead to the creation of political parties in the United States. Those who advocated the ratification of the constitution were known as Federalists, and their opponents were know, be default, as anti-Federalists. What you oppose is not a good basis for a political party, though--people want to know what you support, not what you oppose. Therefore, Jefferson formed the Democratic-Republican Party, usually known as the Republicans. (It has nothing to do with either the modern Democratic Party nor the modern Republican Party.)

Thereafter, there were two parties. Soon enough, there was just one. After the 1824 election, Andrew Jackson created the modern Democratic party, and he did it from the ground up--organizing the precincts, then the counties, and then organizing by states so that he won the 1828 election, and without the idiocy that cost him the 1824 election. With the death of the Federalist party, John Quincy Adams, who had won the presidency in 1824 on a tie vote in the Congress (he was actually supposed to have been Jackson's Vice President), attempted to create a new, fiscally conservative party. He largely failed, but the Whig Party arose through the efforts of others.

The Democratic-Republicans faded away, and ceased to be a national political power. However, other parties arose to meet the political yearnings of other groups. Throughout the period 1828-1860, there were frequently three and sometimes four national parties in operation. The nativist party usually known as the "Know Nothings" never did win the White House, but as the American Party, they did well in local elections (municipal, county and state) and they did send members to the Congress. There were three candidates in the 1856 election, and four in the 1860 election. Because of Lincoln's campaign against Stephen Douglas in Illinois in 1858, and the famous debates in which he forced Douglas to repudiate slavery, the Democratic Party was split in 1860. The Constitutional Union Party was the last gasp of the Whigs, a failed attempt to offer an alternative to the Democrats and Repbulicans. Douglas had been discredited in the south, being seen as a secret abolitionist (ironic because he had built his political power base by conciliating the slave owners), and he was seen as not abolitionist enough in the north. So the Democratic party split. Douglas actually polled more votes than Breckenridge, the Southern Democratic candidate, but Breckenridge got more electoral votes because he represented a solid voting block.

The winner was, of course, Lincoln. If the Democrats had not split, they would have buried him, but he got the most electoral votes because he had successfully discredited Douglas in 1858. The Republicans are in fact, the last successful third party in American history. After 1865, they took steps in cooperation with the Democrats to exclude third parties, and i've already described those measures in an earlier post. Both the Democrats and the Republicans became successful political parties by organizing from the bottom up. Every attempt to form a third or fourth party since then has failed because they have been organized from teh top down--organized around a presidential candidate. The closest such an attempt has come was in the 1912 election, when there were four candidates. Theodore Roosevelt's Progressive Party, usually referred to as the "Bullmoose Party" came very close to wining, because of Roosevelt's popularity. He was shot, and even though he survived the assassination attempt, his electoral campaign did not. He came in second, ans as he was the most popular Republican in the country, he trashed Taft's chances, and Woodrow Wilson won by default.

Since then, no third party has come into existence because they're doing it wrong, they organize around a candidate, such as Ross Perot, but are not organized at the grassroots level. Perot's "party" fall apart because the grassroots organization had the temerity to disagree with Perot. Successful political parties are those that organize locally and then move nationally. A fine example of this is to be found in Canada.

In 1932, the CCF--the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation==--was formed in in Alberta. It brought together disaffected labor and agrarian groups, and the Saskatchewan CCF formed the first socialist government in North America in 1944 with Tommy Douglas, a former Baptist minister, forming the government. Douglas brought in Medicare, in a politically bloody fight, and became a national hero in Canada. The Tories and the Liberals finally succeeded in their campaign to tar the CCF as "Bolsheviks" and tools of Moscow, but out of the wreck of the CCF, with the prestige of Tommy Douglas, the New Democratic Party was formed. Neither the CCF nor the NDP ever formed a national government. But they formed official oppositions in may provinces--notably the CCF did this in Ontario, long the conservative stronghold of Canada--and the NDP has formed provincial governments in several provinces, including in Ontario. The NDP is the official opposition in the commons today, second only to the Conservative Party of Canada, which is what the Tories are calling themselves these days.

I strongly suspect that all this hooraw is just directed at the United States. Westminster-style parliamentary democracies are no more democratic that the United States. The Prime Minister is the leader of which ever party wins the election, and was chosen by a convention of party insiders. He or she need only be elected by the voters in a single district, and the Westminster system is notorious for the ability of parties to find "sate seats" for party "stars."

This is about people describing the American government, from the depths of their ignorance. I've never yet met anyone who was not an American who understood how the American system works (and even many Americans don't), with the exception of a handful of Canadians. Your pet thesis here is based on that same profound ignorance.
Builder
 
  2  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 03:33 am
@Setanta,
Australia, being another Brit colony, has a version of this same Westminster system. Our Tories are called the Liberals, and our worker's party are called Labor. The two offshoots are called the Nationals, which have to form a rough alliance with the Liberals, if they ever want a chance at ruling outright, and the Labor party have formed a rough alliance with the Greens, for the same reason.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 03:37 am
The one advantage i see to the Westminster system is the possibility of minority governments, which are then forced to compromise with one or more other parties. Even that is only a slight advantage--American voters love to give the Congress to one party and the White House to another. Successful politicians and political parties in any system are those who can effectively compromise and cooperate.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 03:43 am
@Setanta,
Our new Tory gov't just handed down the worst budget our nation has ever experienced, so now, I guess we come to the compromise stage, because none of the other parties want a bar of it, and neither does the nation.

I'm seeing a neo-liberal slant here; one that requires a strong stance from the public, as well as the political opposition. The incumbents are taking steps to make it nigh on impossible for third party and independent candidates to field a decent election campaign. Sound familiar, Setanta?
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 03:51 am
@Builder,
That's what the Democrats and the Republicans have done for 140 years. I suspect we'll have to pry our political liberty from their cold, dead hands.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 03:52 am
It should be noted that these are historical artifacts. It is silly to claim that there are immutable mathematical "laws" which govern political science. Political science is science in exactly the same sense as Christian Science.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 04:04 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

So they don't have one single MP yet...


They've had a good election, but if it's not a general election they can't get any MPs. Stop treating everything as a point scoring mission as opposed to a conversation. Lots of respected commentators are talking of the birth of 4 party politics in the UK. It's already happened in Scotland with the SNP controlling the Scottish parliament.


[quote="Olliver"I am for giving a premium to big parties because too many small parties make for unmanageable coalitions. But it does seems to me that the "one round, first past the post" electoral system is just too simplistic and crude, and leads to massive distortions of the electorate wishes, like when Nader's candidacy made certain that Gore would loose to Bush.

[/quote]

It won't happen in the UK, the last referendum (in 2011) on changing the voting system to Alternative Vote was a resounding No. Although a lot of people voted No just to show their dislike of Nick Clegg, electoral change won't be on anyone's agenda for a very long time.
Builder
 
  2  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 04:08 am
@Setanta,
Quote:
I suspect we'll have to pry our political liberty from their cold, dead hands.


I saw the Greens candidate Jill Stein, and her running mate getting arrested for attempting to attend the televised presidential debate.

I much preferred the third-party debate. At least they attempted to address the real issues facing North America's fifty-odd states.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 04:49 am
@Builder,
Thanks Russia Today, for televising the actual presidential debate.

Thom Hartmann adjudicating. This is really what America needs to see.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 May, 2014 08:30 am
@izzythepush,
This is indeed just a discution, I x xy, not a challenge or anything like that.

I see this effect as a long term tendency, not a physical law that would apply systematically and instantly. Duverger didn't call it a law. It's about human beings after all... we're not easily "boxed in". I see it more as an incentive structure defined by the constitution and its voting procedures. The polity will over time evolve in a direction that reflects the constitutional incentive structure.

All sorts of local variations of the voting system and political history, with corresponding varied incentive structures, are at play in different countries and thus many exceptions can occur. External shocks (wars, economic crises...) can also shake things up. A third party can appear and take root, but this often results in a strong attrition of another party, so the system keeps evolving towards a two party equilibrium. Witness the rise of Labour in the early 20th century in the UK, vs. Germany, Italy or France. Socialism is on the rise all over Europe. On the continent, this leads to two parties (or more) on the left with a socialist/social democrat party and a more extremist communist party. In the UK, Labour maintains its unity as a "wide tent" kind of party (because that's the only way it can win under that electoral system), and comes to replace / eliminate the liberals almost entirely by the early thirties. In this instance, the two party system was actually a good thing since the communist-socialist divide was a rather sad affair which ended up tragically helping the rise of Hitler.

UK Election results
 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/UK_popular_vote.svg/800px-UK_popular_vote.svg.png
Shares of the vote in general elections since 1832 received by Conservatives[1](blue), Liberals/Liberal Democrats[2](orange), Labour (red) and others (grey).[3][4]
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections


 

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