How is this definition of "belief"?

shouldn't...the fact that you can reason properly all the while ragging as you do only makes it more tragic...

FBM said:


The correct pragmatical approach would rather:

"I don't think a guess is even quite an assertion of anything other than, "Well, this looks a little better than that." Lets see how useful it can be.

...in any other context the preference for "what happens" is not harmful but quite frankly in there begs for a remark.

That's hilarious . . . O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us to see oursels as ithers see us! . . . you're the one who rags, almost constantly. I make a post, which has nothing to do with you, makes no reference to you, and you tell me to go f*ck myself. If anyone is on the rag around here, it's you, Bubba.

...back to the topic, the pretence distinction between "blind guesses" and "informed guesses", while useful in simple contexts, is ultimately deceiving as guesses are by definition blind.
An "informed guess" at best narrows the field (not the scope) of what is being guessed at so that the impact of guessing is minimized in the function of forming an opinion with useful content. While this is often practical and produces results that we can live with, in no way is guarantee that the impact of an error in an informed guess will always be small...
As much as guessing is involved, both guestimate a probability based on past data references is exactly the same as guestimate without frames of reference...it says nothing about the nature of guessing or how to bypass guessing altogether, nor does it imply that our awareness on the business of being at guesswork makes any less of our need to assume some patterns on the fly that might crystallize into some form of belief with pernicious effects on our interpretation of reality...the idea that guesses as opposed to beliefs are a sort of cop out on the problem of making erroneous assumptions is itself an erroneous assumption.

They're so funny at this intellectual age.

As entertaining as this is, i've been watching videos of live performances by the Beatles from the early 1960s which are far more entertaining. Better thinking and less offensive language, too. Back to the show . . . bye . . .

For instance in a horse race an "informed guess" will guess on a narrow field from the probability of whining to actually whining even if the scope of the result is exactly the same as guessing is concerned...both informed and blind guessing guess at the result of the races but they don't guess from the same amount of risk. Nevertheless the problem of being at guess work is not resolved, as case by case, the impact of guessing wrong when you guess wrong is 100% the same...while statistically informed guesses in repeatable low risk activities are useful, in one shot high risk gambles, the usefulness of informed guesses is almost null...in terms of evolution guessing by default the worst case scenario, guessing "agenticity", harmful intention, has proven the lowest risk taking option...as an example, informed guessing that, lets say 80% of the time is the wind rustling in the high grass instead of a Lion trying to snag you would result in a far less committed effort to run for you life...

No Set you have made a post about Portuguese people that was intentionally addressed to me...

Don't we all?

Not necessarily.

Enjoy the show. I'm also going back to doing something more rewarding and pleasant: stabbing the back of my hand with a sharpened fork.

No in fact mostly I am the quietest person on Earth any neighbour around would attest the truth of it...I even often excuse myself for accidents to which I was not the direct cause (someone stumbling on me)...it just so happens that my intempestive reply to Set was more then justified by his previous deplorable posting to me...whether he recalls it or not is not my problem...

Sounds like more fun than this. I watched the Blackpool Night Out performance from 1965, and now i'm watching their Paris show, also from 1965. Off to get a fork from the kitchen . . .

Fil, with all due respect, this whole "guess/guesstimate/informed guess" dispute is a distraction, pure semantics. At best it's just a way for Frank to say: let's take our beliefs less seriously. You shouldn't loose too much steam on it.

I came to the same conclusion as you re. FBM: there's just not enough intelligence in there for a meaningful discussion. It's like talking to a parrot trained by a half-demented Buddhist buccaneer.

You do, honey. You know you do.

lol

No, chérie, i don't, but maybe that holds true for une petite fille such as yourself.

There is a bunch load of people that indeed do think that awareness of guessing is a cop out of the problem of believing...I've tried to show in a relevant way that such is not the case.

Since when? Are you seeing your shrink again or did you decide to go back to yoga?