NASTY SANDY CHURNING UP THE COAST

Better we lived in a world like my parents (during WWII) eh? All the news was carefully composed and hand fed. Many military stories of weapons explosions and accidents were not appearing in the papers for fear that "Morale" would be compromised.

You just hve to be adult enough to actually get your news feeds from several sources (or one dispassionate source like CBC ). Wehave to be saavy enough to separate the politicization of news from the actual stories themselves. Same thing with natural disasters like Sandy. To be as jaded as you or Bill are, is , to me, a litte sad because youve missed the true impacts that this weather front has wrought. 115 dead people is not insignificant, neither is a growing cost that is now hovering around 30Billion. I have a conclusion that, this weather story was adequately and correctly reported, and our fellow citzens are hurting badly.
Will you stipulate to those two points at least?

Hmm no deaths is insignificant Farmerman however with an east coast population of 50 millions or so that were affect by this storm it is not large either.

In fact I would bet that the average deaths numbers for the East Coast was down not up for that period of time given that people was moving around in far less numbers and therefore highways accidents and other accidents that results from people being out and about would be far less.



Let see 30 billions dollars damage in the most populated area of the country is indeed not small it is however a small number compare to what it could had been if a cat 3 or higher had hit instead of Sandy the super storm.

Compare 30 billions dollars of harm spread over most of the northern east coast in 2012 dollars compare to 33 billions in 1992 dollars in half of one county in Florida with a population of far less then a million people to get an idea of what would had happen if a cat 5 had hit NYC instead of this so call super storm.

Now when the TV was limited to half an hour or so a night of news the news stories cover were of some important not as it is today where there is a need to find fillers to keep a 24/7 so call news channels feed.

The needs for ratings for the news channels also cause them to hype any story they can hype out of all realty.

For storms info I try to cut the news channels and the so call weather channel out as must as possible and go to the US weather website instead.

Farmerman once more where is the link to the claimed deaths in seaside heights?

The government being helpful and knowing what best for you......

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Forced evacuees from Seaside Heights: We're angryPosted: Saturday, November 03, 2012, 3:56 PM
By Michael Monday/The Star-Ledger The Star-Ledger
Follow The Ashworths were the last couple evacuated from Seaside Heights, after forced evacuations on Saturday. The couple say they're angry - they were set up with a generator and $500 of food at a friends house and now they are forced to sleep on a cot inside a makeshift shelter at Toms River East High School. (Video by MIchael Monday/The Star-Ledger)

I dont claim anything, I heard something on the news about Seaside and then two kids deaths, maybe it was a town over. Seaside is basically a wreck. I understand you lived there once, but the devastation was three states deep (even Delaware shore was messed up badly)
We cant get to Bethany Beach because the Indian River bridge approach lanes are totally gone. (

If you wish to discuss Seaside Heights exclusively, why not start a thread. I think Im gonna abandon this one cause its mostly me being sucked into converstaion with you and Hawkee.
and theres nothing new there

Farmerman you could had done what Hawkeye did and admitted that you were in error over the matter instead of not addressing the issue until pressure to do so.

Shame on you.............

why not find someone who gives a **** about what you think Billy.

Your one trick is getting boring

Well I do think Farmerman that anyone who will not admitted to an error of fact have a moral failing in his or her character but I am sure that you are right in that no one else would share that opinion.

Seems another storm , a typical November Nor'easter is coming up the coast. Usually those storms "Bloom" in colder water since they are fed by grdients and not warm tropical waters.

They are forecasting 40 mph winds in te coastal NJ area.
Damn bad luck to get even a minor storms after the devastation New Jersey has experienced.

Theyve gotten some rough figures for the beach replenishment and a project called "Delaware Shore Hardening"
Seems to be a rather futile task when everyone agrees that sea-level rise data is accurate. Hardening a coast (mostly that means to work with long shore sand drift) is only going to cost money (LOTS OF MONEY) and I think that in these times of fiscal concern, we , as taxpayers should be given some options as to whether our tax money should be used to underwrite much of the flood insurance program.

Orrin Pilkey, one f the most respected coastal geomorphologists, has called for a "Timed withdrawal" from the coasts by allowing an area to rebuild only after based on some tech bases that proove that any particular coastal areas are more or less susceptible to inundation. In Delaware , we have a real problem with old cuts that are concave shaped inlets that are bounded by tidal marshes that are thousands of years old. At Primehook Sanctuary, a 10000acre bird resting spot near us, there have been massive overwashes in this storm. The new thinking is to connect Primehook with an area called Fowler and SLaughter Beaches and allow the sand to mold a beach area thathas a higher equiibrium.

Yes everyone is in agreement with special note of the rate of sea level rise over the next hundred years or so.....NOT.



If the sea level raises are at the low end of the predictions or even less is Mr. Pilkey going to write a personal check to cover the cost of moving even slowly moving a large percents of the nation population away from the coasts?

With the concept f planet wide sea level rise not really under any scientific disagreement, the only part I still am critical of is whether this is human induced or not. (I favor natural cycles in effect-mostly because of leading geoedaphic indicators )
As far as sea level rise, you can believe in unicorns nd sasquatches if you wish Bill, its just that youre in error .




I take it that its your contrarian nature so Im not all twisted out of hape for you will ultimately come across some evidence that is incontrovertable nd you will have your eyes opened (Do it within your lifetime though)


Dr Pilkey has come up with ordinances (model) that began the concept of planned withdrawal. It doesnt mean that he(or we as taxpayers) will continue underwriting these silly coastal zone insurance policies to rebuild dune homes for weekender retreats.
I like the concept of defining zones where rebuilding shouldnt be allowed at all, or allow a swap for land farther inland (Its all only a concept of a series of model ordinances)
As states (like NJ discover that they will be cash strapped to rebuild some of these beach communities, I think nature will take care of itself.
You are merely a temporary occupant of a zone of the planet that is less than metastable.
To insist on rebuilding is collectively stupid. I can understand your concern because you wish to be a beach front owner. However, we can merely hasten this withdrawal by NOT underwriting flood insurance or Hurricane riders

The last time I look the range of possible sea levels raise in the future is very large and if it turn out to be on the low end no actions need or should be taken as you are suggesting.

Stop reading Time and get a copy of AGU Journals.
Sea Level rise is a tidally affected bulge that is growig. If you consider 100 ft as acceptable, ok.
The East Coast , as recently as 7500 years ago, was presenting us a different sedimentological record. When the glaciers retreated , there was an initial flooding of all of NJ *xcept a small area from Washinton to Passaic " most of NY east of the Hudson and much of outer New England. This extended to all of Del most of Maryland, the Tideater of Va and down to Fla.
That entire area only began showing its face as the lnd rebounded from the retreating ice mass . That was a relatively monor indundation cycle.
Weve had times in our geological history where the entire US up t Kansas was underwater

If I remember reading correctly NYC area was under a mile of ice just 10,000 years ago so the earth is constantly changing I just do not have any faith in the ability of current computer models to take a trend and predict the future from it.

The climate is definitely warming. There's no question about that. The only question is to what degree are humans contributing to that warming. And can any additional warming from human activity possibly alter the cycle which has been happening for the last several hundred thousand years.

Maybe the best response to sea level rise is simply to stop building permanent structures so near the sea. Granted it's going to be problematic to "move" cities like New York a few miles inland, but in a general sense, maybe if new construction in those area is limited (possibly by restrictive insurance costs) and vast areas of shoreline are allowed to return to nature it wouldn't be so bad in the long run. I've frequently been annoyed by the fact that so much of the eastern seashore is privately owned or restricted that you can't even park near the water any more without paying just to leave your car there for a few minutes so you can see the waves.

Not that it's ever going to happen or anything, but wouldn't it be nice if you could just drive your car down a dirt road and park in a gravel lot by the dunes and just walk to the water and let your dog run in the sand without a beach cop blowing a whistle at you because your frolicking dog isn't allowed.

As far as moving populations away from the coast the issue is not the cause but the future degree of sea level raise.

Oh as far as humans causing climate change the earth in it history had gone from a hot house earth to a snow ball earth long before humans so no humans is needed to get vary large swings in climate.

Ice began melting abut 9600 years ago and almost ALL of NJ is under a coating of river deposited sand calle The Columbia Formation or The CApe MAy Formations. These are POST GLACIAL OUTWASH deposits that are some 130 ft thick.
My point was that, if it happens once it happens again and again. (There were several layers of coastal plain NJ that fo back to the Cretaceous. ALL ignifiy that coastal (todays coastal) NJ was under rivers, lakes, and shallow seas many times before.

Keeping the advance FROM happening is what our coastal zone planning is based on NOW. We had better come to the realization that we wont win with nature.

Thats what Dr Pilkey's ordinances are based upon. BUT, he goes an additional step by saying that
Once your house is gone, we settle up, and you must go elsewhere.

The only diffrence between us and the displaced of the Seveen Gorges Dam in China is that we will pay a stetlement with the newly displaced.


ITS just gonna cause huuuuge amounts of money to keep rebuilding in places that we shouldnt.

When the Mississippi overflowed in 1993 and the town of ALton Ill was inundated, the COE defined a "No return" area that is now a floodplain park area for several 10s of miles.
Whats so special about NJ that we must keep defying natural cycles?

Youd make sense here Bill if it werent the case that, whenever these tipping points occur and sea level changes, the changes usually hang on for thousands of years.
The early coastal plain of the US used to be 20 to 50 miles offshore from today. There are actually signs of cultural artifacts that hve been dredged up in clam and lobster rakes.
There are these large fluctuations that occur in hundreds of feet . That is coupled with isostasy which the earth is rising and falling like "ripples" due to unweighting of the ice (We are still rebounding upward from the last Ice sheet )
AND, there were 4 big ice sheets in the last 2 million years, each with a 10K to 100K interglcial warm period.