Sofia wrote:The economy is improving, the real estate market is doing very well...yet Bush languishes in approval ratings and Kerry can't seem to make headway...
Which is, of course, a great change over where things stood a year ago, when Bush was so far in front that some rank-and-file Democrats thought the 2004 election was hopeless, and they'd better wait until 2008. It's a head-to-head race now, and Bush is on the defensive. I think Bush's best argument about the economy will be that it's growing again, and Kerry's best arguments is that the economy has still several millions fewer job than it did on January 19th 2001.
Sofia wrote:If Iraq is the Great Issue, and Kerry has no plans different than Bush's--what are the arguing points between them?
Kerry will argue that he can get the rest of the world to cooperate in sorting out the mess in Iraq. Unlike Bush, Kerry hasn't alienated anyone outside of America yet. I expect that Bush will try to soften his "war president" image and refocus on the improving economy -- or change the subject entirely. Can America invade Grenada again? Haiti, perhaps? Or maybe he'll just start a vigorous attack on gay marriage, abortion rights, and so forth. There's lots of red herrings out there, and I'm sure Mr. Bush will find one that suits him.
Sofia wrote:Kerry is taking flak over his medal throwing--and neither of them are likely to bring up personal military service.
I'm sure Bush won't bring it up, but I'm not so sure about Kerry. Whatever he
really threw away at this demonstration, he is still a certified war hero. By contrast, Bush, Cheney, Wolfowitz and their cheerleaders in the conservative media are chicken hawks and draft-dodgers. They have big mouths, but lose control when the going gets rough. This is a very good card in the Democrats' hand, and I expect Kerry or one of his subordinates to play it when the time is right.
Sofia wrote:Kerry may be right that 'other nation's leaders' prefer him over Bush--but I think Al Quaida would also prefer Kerry...
I don't think so. The war on terror is different than war between nations in that it has 99% of each country's population fighting against 1% in each countries population. Terrorists will prefer it if those 99%, and their country's government which can catch them, is alienated by the American president, rather than on his side.
Sofia wrote:How do you think these, or other issues will be fought and won in upcoming debates?
For now, Kerry will just watch as the neoconservative hubris in the Bush camp gets crushed by the impact of the real world. Bush will either try to change the subject, or make a last-minute effort to give the few grown-ups in his administration more power (Powell, Mankiw). Or he may try both.