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Why I am not Voting Obama

 
 
DrewDad
 
  4  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 01:27 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:
Gore ran a campaign so botched even his home state did not support him. In the debates with Bush, he came off as an oaf. Nader didn't so much beat Gore as did Gore. (The media giving Bush a total pass made as much difference as Nader, anyway).

I was amazed that so much of people's reactions were based on expectations.

They expected Gore to be smart (even if his speaking pattern put people to sleep). So when he was smart... he just met expectations.

People expected Bush to be an idiot, so when he was an idiot he met expectations. When he was halfway coherent, he exceeded expectations.

It was the "Mr. Scott" approach to campaigning. Set the expectations low, then exceed expectations and be seen as a miracle worker.
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  5  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 01:27 pm
@engineer,
engineer wrote:
But there is justification because the distribution of political leanings is much more the bell curve and Edgar is on one extreme. If Edgar thinks his protest will cause the Democrats to swing left at the expense of 3 or 4 Phoenixs he's mistaken. If he finds a candidate out there that supports his views, great but if he thinks by excluding his representation from the Democrats he is going to move them his direction I think the opposite is true. Edgar is working against his political aspirations by in effect supporting a party who represents everything he is against.

If you're suggesting that Edgar (or any other disaffected former Obama supporter, such as myself) would have more influence inside the Democratic Party than voting for a third-party candidate, I think you're mistaken.

First, if you're right that the party would prefer somebody within one SD from the mean, like Phoenix, over somebody who is at the end of the left tail of the bell curve, like Edgar, then it really doesn't matter if he's attempting to influence things from the inside or the outside, since he's going to be ignored regardless of which side he's on. Better, then, to be welcomed by a small, ideologically congenial party than dismissed by a centrist, "big tent" party.

Second, it's often easier to influence a big party through support of a small party than to influence a big party through membership in a marginalized faction of that party. Ideas like direct election of senators, the income tax, women's suffrage, primary elections, referendum and recall, the forty-hour work week, and a whole host of other things that we take for granted were initially proposed by third parties. If leftists want to influence the Democratic Party in a more leftward direction, the worst way to do it would be to keep voting for Democratic candidates.
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 01:31 pm
@DrewDad,
Edgar,

I don't know if you have the time or inclination to reply, but I'd be interested in what you have to say.

DrewDad wrote:

edgarblythe wrote:
You can post things I agree with, like these, but it does not change the fact the nation is steadily sliding to the right.

Wait, what?

Overt racism took a brief uptick after Obama was elected, but it seems to be subsiding, now.

Gays can serve openly in the military.

Same-sex marriage is gaining traction.

Do you remember the blue laws? No retail on Sunday? Gone. No alcohol on Sunday? Gone.

The push for teaching evolution in Texas schools failed.

Women are still under attack, but I think that's more a reaction to their success.



That's a bone I have to pick with the original article you posted. He said something like, "things are getting worse."

Thinking back on the 80's, I have to ask, "how, exactly, are things worse now?"




Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 01:31 pm
@failures art,
failures art wrote:
Then here's a follow up question: Would more or fewer voters turn out for more polar candidates?

Fewer. Fewer voters make it more important for parties to mobilize their base and comparatively less important to swing Independents. If you're a liberal voter, and you want to move the Democratic party towards what's currently their left wing, your best tactic is to threaten them with abstinence. (Or with voting Green, whatever you prefer.) At least this is true in the District of Columbia, where you live, and which is solidly Blue.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 01:32 pm
Ross Perot, had he run an intelligent campaign, had a good shot at winning, that one year. It only took several weeks for him to split the polls into thirds. I know that would have been a disaster. But, the point is, Americans are not as loyal to the two parties as people seem to think.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 01:46 pm
@DrewDad,
I possibly should not have started this thread, because, as I stated early on, it will keep me from other projects.

DrewDad wrote:

Edgar,

I don't know if you have the time or inclination to reply, but I'd be interested in what you have to say.

DrewDad wrote:

edgarblythe wrote:
You can post things I agree with, like these, but it does not change the fact the nation is steadily sliding to the right.

Wait, what?

Overt racism took a brief uptick after Obama was elected, but it seems to be subsiding, now.

True racists never give up. They might hide.

Gays can serve openly in the military.

Same-sex marriage is gaining traction.

These gains are fabulous. They don't have anything to do with my disaffection. They don't address the tax cuts for the wealthy, the botched health care system, the steady erosion of Medicare and Social Security, the endless wars, banks and so forth.

Do you remember the blue laws? No retail on Sunday? Gone. No alcohol on Sunday? Gone.

Gone because the conservatives got spoiled to comfort and convenience, like the rest of us.

The push for teaching evolution in Texas schools failed.

I assume you mean, the push to place creationism in the schools. That is a war that will go on for a long time.

Women are still under attack, but I think that's more a reaction to their success.



That's a bone I have to pick with the original article you posted. He said something like, "things are getting worse."

Thinking back on the 80's, I have to ask, "how, exactly, are things worse now?"





wandeljw
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 02:16 pm
@edgarblythe,
Don't apologize, edgar. I was going to start a counter-thread titled "Why Only Politicians From Chicago Should Run This Country," but then found something else to post about.
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 02:25 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblyth wrote:
They don't have anything to do with my disaffection. They don't address the tax cuts for the wealthy, the botched health care system, the steady erosion of Medicare and Social Security, the endless wars, banks and so forth.

I won't argue with you about the tax cuts; they're dumb and will remain dumb. I say tax capital gains at the same rates as all other income.

Botched health care? You mean the same system that the Democrats have been fighting to reform for since Clinton? The same system that is now forced to spend 80% of premiums on patient care (thanks to Obama)?

Erosion of Medicare and Social Security? How is this a right-vs.-left wing thing? More people on Medicare and Social Security + fewer people paying in = either deficits or reduced benefits. Who has an idea on this subject that you support?

Endless wars... you mean the war in Iraq that Obama opposed? The intervention in Syria that didn't end up as a boots-on-the-ground operation?



What specifically do you want to see done? And how does not voting promote those goals?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  5  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 03:00 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:

JPB wrote:

America Elects is what folks are doing about it. David Walker isn't anybody's fool. There will be a candidate named by June and that candidate will be on every ballot. As I said earlier, upwards of 60% of registered voters have indicated they'd vote for an alternate (non-major party) candidate this year if that candidate stood a chance of shaking things up. Large numbers of folks are looking to shake things up. Choosing between the lesser of two evils is no longer the only option.


I am a delegate to America Elects. But they have to find a good candidate and field a platform I can accept, if I am to go all the way with them.


Are you honestly not aware that this organization is a sham? They have no intention whatsoever of actually allowing anyone but the organizers of the project to select the candidates.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2012_01/americans_elects_dubious_new_p034940.php

I would note that they are supposedly having their first run at a candidate choice in two months, and every single person they've approached for the job has declined. Who are Americans going to Elect, again?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
failures art
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 03:05 pm
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:

failures art wrote:
Then here's a follow up question: Would more or fewer voters turn out for more polar candidates?

Fewer. Fewer voters make it more important for parties to mobilize their base and comparatively less important to swing Independents. If you're a liberal voter, and you want to move the Democratic party towards what's currently their left wing, your best tactic is to threaten them with abstinence. (Or with voting Green, whatever you prefer.) At least this is true in the District of Columbia, where you live, and which is solidly Blue.

DC is solidly blue, but are our democrats a deeper shade of blue? I don't really believe so.

We do have some elected Ward Reps and ANCs who are third party here in DC, but they are less focused on deeper liberalness. They are focused on DC Home Rule or statehood. They're almost a single topic party that on other topics differ in many ways.

A
R
T
failures art
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 03:16 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:

Ross Perot, had he run an intelligent campaign, had a good shot at winning, that one year. It only took several weeks for him to split the polls into thirds. I know that would have been a disaster. But, the point is, Americans are not as loyal to the two parties as people seem to think.

If he had run an intelligent campaign? You just said he split the polls in three. That's pretty intelligent if you ask me. Is it possible that he ran as good of a campaign as he could and simply lost?

A
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Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 03:32 pm
@failures art,
failures art wrote:
DC is solidly blue, but are our democrats a deeper shade of blue? I don't really believe so.

That's not what I meant to suggest. I meant to suggest that if DC was truly in play, you would have to worry about Sozobe's dilemma that a vote for Third Parties is a vote for Republicans. But DC isn't in play, so the signals you'd be sending to Democratic strategists wouldn't have those side effects.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 03:45 pm
@failures art,
failures art wrote:

edgarblythe wrote:

Ross Perot, had he run an intelligent campaign, had a good shot at winning, that one year. It only took several weeks for him to split the polls into thirds. I know that would have been a disaster. But, the point is, Americans are not as loyal to the two parties as people seem to think.

If he had run an intelligent campaign? You just said he split the polls in three. That's pretty intelligent if you ask me. Is it possible that he ran as good of a campaign as he could and simply lost?

A
R
T


After he had the poll numbers he suddenly became very erratic and then he took on a VP candidate that froze up in public and could not speak.
0 Replies
 
failures art
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:00 pm
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:

failures art wrote:
DC is solidly blue, but are our democrats a deeper shade of blue? I don't really believe so.

That's not what I meant to suggest. I meant to suggest that if DC was truly in play, you would have to worry about Sozobe's dilemma that a vote for Third Parties is a vote for Republicans. But DC isn't in play, so the signals you'd be sending to Democratic strategists wouldn't have those side effects.

In the case of President, we actually are in play. It's one of the only votes we get. Also, I disagree: DC could put a DC Statehood Party rep on the ballot and could actually win all three electoral votes.

Why this doesn't happen is kind of the reason why I think edgar's idea is false. Think about it. DC's three votes probably wouldn't decide any election, so if liberal groups wanted to they could easily run third party super blue candidates to challenge even incumbent Democrats. At the end of any election, you'd see your normal national map divided into red and blue, with the exception of a small other colored blip on the nation's capitol. Talk about a news story.

A
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Thomas
 
  5  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:24 pm
@failures art,
failures art wrote:
In the case of President, we actually are in play. It's one of the only votes we get. Also, I disagree: DC could put a DC Statehood Party rep on the ballot and could actually win all three electoral votes.

Perfect! What are you waiting for? No taxation without representation. You shouldn't just be voting for the DC Statehood Party, you should be declaring independence!
ehBeth
 
  3  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:30 pm
@failures art,
failures art wrote:
with the exception of a small other colored blip on the nation's capitol.


you've got to start somewhere.

In last year's Canadian federal election, the NDP became the official opposition - pushed the Liberals right off the map. The Liberals owned Canadian politics for decades - traded control back and forth with the Conservative party over the past coupla decades - now they're busy trying to recreate their party from the ground up.

There's really no good reason to protect a tw0-party system anywhere.
failures art
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:35 pm
@Thomas,
hehe Smile

So do you believe that Bernie Sanders has made Democrats sweat? If not, why would DC voting in a Statehood Party Candidate make them sweat? Sanders wins offices, a DC win would not result in any new person in office.

A
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failures art
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:39 pm
@ehBeth,
Canada also uses a parliamentary system. It's not that I'm fond of a two party dichotomy, but party changes in parliamentary systems is more common is it not?

I don't know if the comparison is 1:1 when looking for an example on it having to start somewhere.

A
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ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:44 pm
@failures art,
The Liberals (or their predecessors) have been either the governing party or the loyal opposition since 1867.

We traditionally don't see that much change at the top of the political heap. This was a huge change in the Canadian political environment. The NDP wiped out the Liberals and decimated the Bloq in Quebec.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jan, 2012 04:45 pm
@failures art,
the comparison doesn't have to be 1:1
0 Replies
 
 

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