18
   

War! The fear mongering is here, again!

 
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 02:06 am
@BillRM,
BillRM wrote:
Footnote breeder reactors do not enrich uranium but created plutonium my nuclear engineer and is a far harder material to make a bomb out of as you can not used a simple gun design trigger.


An implosion warhead would be an easy feat for Iran to master.

But in any case, if Iran is bombed, their plutonium-production reactor will be one of the first things to go.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 02:12 am
oralloy says:
Quote:
Iran killed hundreds of Marine peacekeepers in Lebanon in the 1980s, and also were behind a number of kidnappings where innocent civilians were held for years. In the 1990s they killed dozens of American soldiers in Saudi Arabia. More recently they've supplied dangerous weapons to insurgents in both Iraq and Afghanistan.


The US Marines were not exactly "peacekeepers". They'd taken an active role in the fighting, against Iranian friends and allies, and of course not surprisingly Israel again had gone to war against the other countries around it, and we horned it and got the brunt.

Quote:
According to Robert Fisk, a major motivation for the bombing was the ill will generated by the Multinational Force (MNF) among Lebanese Muslims, especially ShiĘża living in the slums of West Beirut and around the airport where the Marines were headquartered, as they saw the MNF siding with the Maronite Catholics in their domination of Lebanon.[10] Muslim feelings against the American presence were "exacerbated when missiles lobbed by the U.S. Sixth Fleet hit innocent by-standers in the Druze-dominated Shuf mountains."[11] There was a growing feeling of frustration inside the Muslim and Druze community in Lebanon with US direct backing of Israel in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon and other pro-Israeli factions within Lebanon. These factions had been responsible for multiple attacks committed against the Muslim and Druze Lebanese population.

Col. Timothy J. Geraghty, the commander of the Marines in Beirut during the incident, has said that "the Marine and the French headquarters were targeted primarily because of who we were and what we represented;"[12] and that,

It is noteworthy that the United States provided direct naval gunfire support -- which I strongly opposed for a week -- to the Lebanese Army at a mountain village called Suq-al-Garb on September 19 and that the French conducted an air strike on September 23 in the Bekaa Valley. American support removed any lingering doubts of our neutrality, and I stated to my staff at the time that we were going to pay in blood for this decision.[13]

Some authors, including Thomas Friedman point to the use of this naval gunfire as the beginning point of the U.S. forces being seen as participants in the civil war rather than peace keepers and opening them up to retaliation.[14][15]

Some analysts believe the Islamic Republic of Iran was heavily involved and that a major factor leading it to participate in the attacks on the barracks was America's support for Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War and its extending of $2.5 billion in trade credit to Iraq while halting the shipments of arms to Iran.[16] A few weeks before the bombing, Iran warned that providing armaments to Iran's enemies would provoke retaliatory punishment.[Notes 1]

Shia moslems are minorities or discriminated against in most of the other mideast countries except Iran and are often screwed over. We consistently support Sunni regimes or minorities. If we do that, Iran is going to go to bat for their co-religionists. Stupid, definitely non even-handed policy on our part.

In addition, what you call "insurgents" in Iraq, Iran considers friends, neighbors, co-religionists, the majority of Iraqis, consistently screwed over by the Sunni minority, who also were despised over the years by Saddam the Sunni. We supported Iraq in their war against Iran, a war we had no strategic interest in. We came in in an elective war, under the pretext of fighting terror, against a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, and pretty much ended up backing the Sunnis. If we come in and take sides, we're damned well going to suffer the consequences. We have NEVER been even-handed in the Mideast and we get the consequences.






































oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 02:14 am
@engineer,
engineer wrote:
Iran having the bomb is not the end of the world but you would never know that from the people calling for military action.


No!

We will never tolerate Iranian nukes!

Now, that does not mean bombing is guaranteed. There is also a decent argument for hitting Iran with crushing world-wide sanctions (like has been done with North Korea) instead of bombing them.

But the idea that the US will simply calmly accept an Iranian nuclear arsenal without doing anything..... No. That is flat-out never going to happen.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 02:26 am
We accepted China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea getting the bomb without doing anything. If Israel keeps saber rattling and threatening to bomb anyone they don't like, and refuses to settle or even seriously negotiate the issues that have threatened middle east peace for the last sixty years, then damned straight other countries in the area are going to develop missiles that can hit Israel and very likely nukes, although again, according to 16 US intelligence agencies, they are not. It's called Mutual Assured Destruction. It kept the US and Russia from killing each other for sixty years because neither of us was quite stupid enough to test it. If Israel is stupid enough to test it, and from years of evidence Netanyahu just might be, I think this time around they are in fact likely to bring a firestorm down on their own heads.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 02:31 am
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
Oralloy wrote:
Iran killed hundreds of Marine peacekeepers in Lebanon in the 1980s, and also were behind a number of kidnappings where innocent civilians were held for years. In the 1990s they killed dozens of American soldiers in Saudi Arabia. More recently they've supplied dangerous weapons to insurgents in both Iraq and Afghanistan.


The US Marines were not exactly "peacekeepers". They'd taken an active role in the fighting, against Iranian friends and allies, and of course not surprisingly Israel again had gone to war against the other countries around it, and we horned it and got the brunt.

Quote:
According to Robert Fisk, a major motivation for the bombing was the ill will generated by the Multinational Force (MNF) among Lebanese Muslims, especially ShiĘża living in the slums of West Beirut and around the airport where the Marines were headquartered, as they saw the MNF siding with the Maronite Catholics in their domination of Lebanon.[10] Muslim feelings against the American presence were "exacerbated when missiles lobbed by the U.S. Sixth Fleet hit innocent by-standers in the Druze-dominated Shuf mountains."[11] There was a growing feeling of frustration inside the Muslim and Druze community in Lebanon with US direct backing of Israel in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon and other pro-Israeli factions within Lebanon. These factions had been responsible for multiple attacks committed against the Muslim and Druze Lebanese population.

Col. Timothy J. Geraghty, the commander of the Marines in Beirut during the incident, has said that "the Marine and the French headquarters were targeted primarily because of who we were and what we represented;"[12] and that,

It is noteworthy that the United States provided direct naval gunfire support -- which I strongly opposed for a week -- to the Lebanese Army at a mountain village called Suq-al-Garb on September 19 and that the French conducted an air strike on September 23 in the Bekaa Valley. American support removed any lingering doubts of our neutrality, and I stated to my staff at the time that we were going to pay in blood for this decision.[13]

Some authors, including Thomas Friedman point to the use of this naval gunfire as the beginning point of the U.S. forces being seen as participants in the civil war rather than peace keepers and opening them up to retaliation.[14][15]

Some analysts believe the Islamic Republic of Iran was heavily involved and that a major factor leading it to participate in the attacks on the barracks was America's support for Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War and its extending of $2.5 billion in trade credit to Iraq while halting the shipments of arms to Iran.[16] A few weeks before the bombing, Iran warned that providing armaments to Iran's enemies would provoke retaliatory punishment.[Notes 1]


Shia moslems are minorities or discriminated against in most of the other mideast countries except Iran and are often screwed over. We consistently support Sunni regimes or minorities. If we do that, Iran is going to go to bat for their co-religionists. Stupid, definitely non even-handed policy on our part.

In addition, what you call "insurgents" in Iraq, Iran considers friends, neighbors, co-religionists, the majority of Iraqis, consistently screwed over by the Sunni minority, who also were despised over the years by Saddam the Sunni.


I don't see much I disagree with there, but the fact remains Iran was conducting attacks beyond their borders, which was the claim I was objecting to.



MontereyJack wrote:
We supported Iraq in their war against Iran, a war we had no strategic interest in.


By that time, we had begun to view Iran as a clear threat. I think our interest was mainly in containing Iran.



MontereyJack wrote:
We came in in an elective war, under the pretext of fighting terror, against a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, and pretty much ended up backing the Sunnis.


It looks to me like we were pretty friendly to the Shi'a majority, and left them in charge of the country.

I'm not sure we had much choice but to do the Iraq war. We needed to get our troops out of Saudi Arabia before they inspired even more recruits to join al-Qa'ida. And the Saudis would have been pretty unhappy with us if we'd pulled out while Saddam was still in power.



MontereyJack wrote:
If we come in and take sides, we're damned well going to suffer the consequences. We have NEVER been even-handed in the Mideast and we get the consequences.


Well, Clinton was evenhanded in trying to get negotiations going between Israel and the Palestinians in 2000. Not that it led to anything.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 02:51 am
oralloy says:
Quote:
I don't see much I disagree with there, but the fact remains Iran was conducting attacks beyond their borders, which was the claim I was objecting to.
So were we, much farther away, against Iran's friends and neighbors, against people they share a common very important bond with, and have had long-standing ties with in spite of largely arbitrary European-imposed national borders.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:03 am
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
We accepted China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea getting the bomb without doing anything.


China, Israel, India, and Pakistan are legally allowed to have nukes.

North Korea got hit by devastating world-wide sanctions when they developed nukes.



MontereyJack wrote:
If Israel keeps saber rattling and threatening to bomb anyone they don't like,


Israel only bombs people who insist on attacking them.



MontereyJack wrote:
and refuses to settle or even seriously negotiate the issues that have threatened middle east peace for the last sixty years,


It is not Israel who has refused to negotiate. It is the Palestinians who are always refusing to come to the negotiating table.



MontereyJack wrote:
although again, according to 16 US intelligence agencies, they are not.


That assessment is based on a pretty narrow definition of "building nukes".

Using that definition, Iran is only building nukes if they start producing nuclear weapon components and assembling them.

At the moment all Iran is doing is developing the capability to build nuclear weapon components.



MontereyJack wrote:
It's called Mutual Assured Destruction. It kept the US and Russia from killing each other for sixty years because neither of us was quite stupid enough to test it.


Iran getting a nuclear deterrent would be bad news both regionally and world-wide.

Regionally, Iran would become even more aggressive towards western interests, secure in the knowledge that their nuclear deterrent would prevent anyone from acting against them.

The world-wide repercussions, if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons without consequences, would be the end of the Non Proliferation Treaty and the spread of nuclear arsenals to nations around the world (and eventually a nuclear war somewhere probably).

If Iran is able to develop illegal nuclear weapons with no consequences, anyone else who wants nukes will simply follow in their footsteps.

The end of the NPT would also mean the US will have to resume nuclear testing and start designing more modern warheads, and also build our arsenal back up to Cold War levels (both necessary to deal with a world where "everyone" has nukes).

We'd likely also start sharing our nuclear weapons technology with Israel and our other allies, so they could better cope with the rampant spread of nukes around the world.



MontereyJack wrote:
If Israel is stupid enough to test it, and from years of evidence Netanyahu just might be, I think this time around they are in fact likely to bring a firestorm down on their own heads.


Israel does not propose testing MAD. They propose bombing Iran with conventional weapons before Iran develops nukes.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:10 am
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
So were we, much farther away, against Iran's friends and neighbors, against people they share a common very important bond with, and have had long-standing ties with in spite of largely arbitrary European-imposed national borders.


True. I was merely disagreeing with a claim that Iran has been peaceful since 1979, and has not attacked outside their borders.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:14 am
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:
fast breeder reactors are typically cooled with liquid metals, not water.


The nuclear fuel may be cooled by liquid metal, but that liquid metal then has to be cooled as well, and it is typically cooled with water.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:18 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:
BillRM wrote:
such reactors are not localed by large water sources because of that fact.

BillRM wrote:
Fool.................................


Did you mistake his sarcasm for a factual statement?
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:33 am
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:
I beg to differ--you aren't going to take out deep underground bunkers with anything short of nukes.


True. But Iran doesn't have "deep" underground bunkers; they have "shallow" underground bunkers. And the precise GPS coordinates of the underground chambers are known by both Israel and the US.



Setanta wrote:
Taking out the military control centers in Iraq was relatively simple because they were relatively stupid designs.


Iranian underground bunkers are nearly as bad as the Iraqi underground bunkers were.



Setanta wrote:
Don't doubt for a moment that the Revolutionary Guard has thoroughly studied that war.


I don't know what they are thinking in Iran, but it seems they didn't learn the lesson about how to build a bunker.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:43 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:
engineer wrote:
Yes, I think continous bombardment of Iran would eventually result in them surrendering and I think our casualties would be very low. That very scenario is why they want the bomb. One A-bomb takes out a carrier group. Without it, they have absolutely no defense against a carrier group working a hundred miles away. As long as the US can sit a carrier or three offshore and run bombing missions at will with minimal risk, there will be some in the US who see that as a valid option. As for a country willing to let us use their facilities I'm sure Israel would offer up some airfields and I'm not so sure that the US couldn't buy off some former Soviet states. They did for Iraq.


I'm sorry, but are you saying this would be a good idea? What do you think would be going on across the Middle East? What do you think China will be doing while all this is going on?


I don't think he is saying it is a good idea.

As for China, they'd simply make some sort of impotent verbal condemnation, which we would not pay any attention to.

I expect that the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites, were it to be done by the US, would be carried out primarily by long-range bombers flying out of Diego Garcia.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 03:50 am
@BillRM,
BillRM wrote:
They can study any war they care to however that is not going to slow us down one little bit and yes we can take deep bunkers by hitting one spot over and over with earth penetrating bombs without nukes being needed.


That tactic works when dropping a second bomb down a hole made by a first, but it doesn't work so well with subsequent bombs after the second one.

However, given the shallowness of Iranian bunkers and the impact of American 30,000-pound bunker busters, I don't think even a double shot would be necessary.

If Israel does it with the 5000-pound bunker busters that Obama gave them, they might want to consider doubling each bomb, just in case.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 04:13 am
@engineer,
engineer wrote:
Here is the projection of the blast radius of the Hiroshima bomb. Note that within one mile - complete destruction. Even within two miles would neutralize the threat.


I'm not familiar with the PSI needed to damage a warship, but I expect it might be harder to damage than lightly-built Japanese housing.

Not disagreeing with your contention that a nuke could do a lot of damage to a warship at a great distance, but probably not at the same distances that lightweight housing would be wiped out.



engineer wrote:
As to size typical a-bombs are easily small enough to fit on warhead - they are small enough to fit in backbacks. I've seen a nuclear tipped torpedo. We're not talking ICBM sized warheads here.


Even thermonuclear ICBM warheads are pretty compact (very heavy though). Only the multi-megaton behemoths from the 1950s were "big".



engineer wrote:
BillRM wrote:
All this with them knowing that they would crease to be a nation shortly after they did any harm to naval ships using nukes?


Only if they did it agressively. If they were being attacked from the sea and took the only defensive measure available to them, much of the world would not regard a nuclear counter-strike from the US as warranted. Everyone agrees you don't strike first but I think many people would think using nucs in self defense is not out of bounds.


If anyone were to launch a nuclear strike against a US warship under any conditions, the US reprisals would be both nuclear and genocidal, and the US would not bother to consult anyone for their opinions on the matter.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 04:13 am
@MontereyJack,
What is equally pressing is the sectarian divide. It's not just about Israel/Iran, it's also about Saudi Arabia. If the Iranians get the bomb, then Saudi Arabia will want it too. What's going on in Bahrain, where there is a US base, is a proxy war between Iran and SA.

The majority native population are Shia, and are protesting against the ruling Sunni minority, who have put down dissent using Saudi troops. Admittedly it's not as extreme as Syria or Libya, but the criticism from the West has been quite muted compared to the condemnation of Assad and Gadaffi. In fact the only real support has come from Iran.

If anything kicks off between Israel and Iran, the base in Bahrain will be a prime target.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 04:19 am
@Rockhead,
Rockhead wrote:
this may have been brought up already, but...

how is attaching a bomb to a scientist's car and detonating it in public that much different from flying an airplane into a building?


Depends on the details.

Presuming that you are referring to the World Trade Center, that was the intentional massacre of thousands of civilians -- a crime against humanity.

Presuming that you are referring to Iranian nuclear weapons scientists, those were wartime strikes against valid military targets.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 04:41 am
@BillRM,
BillRM wrote:
A dozen small nukes used against Israeli would result in hundreds of nukes on their heads as the best guess is that the Israeli is in the same class as such counties as England and France with over 300 advance nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.


Israel doesn't have thermonuclear warheads like England and France. They use a lightweight Sloika design.

Last I heard Israel had about 200 nuclear weapons. Not all of them are strategic. They also have a number of atomic artillery shells in case they need to fend off an invader they cannot handle conventionally.

But yes, if Iran nuked Israel, Iran would be destroyed.
djjd62
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 05:15 am
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
But yes, if Iran nuked Israel, Iran would be destroyed.


hopefully it doesn't happen until Iran has a good supply to assure mutually assured destruction, win/win situation
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 05:28 am
@djjd62,
djjd62 wrote:
oralloy wrote:
But yes, if Iran nuked Israel, Iran would be destroyed.


hopefully it doesn't happen until Iran has a good supply to assure mutually assured destruction, win/win situation


Damage to innocent Israelis would hardly be a win.

And Iran will not be allowed to have a nuclear arsenal. If they are not stopped with bombs, they'll be stopped with brutal crushing sanctions.
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Thu 1 Mar, 2012 05:41 am
@oralloy,
But of course, you're OK with damage to innocent Persians . . . oh wait, they're Muslims, so none of them are innocent, right? They all deserve to die horrible deaths, right?

What an asshole.
 

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