Hey, look what one of my friends sent me, and it also speaks to Bush's "nose."
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In Front of Your Nose
April 30, 2004
By PAUL KRUGMAN
"We are all capable of believing things which we know to be
untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong,
impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were
right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this
process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is
that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid
reality, usually on a battlefield." That's from George
Orwell's 1946 essay "In Front of Your Nose." It seems
especially relevant right now, as we survey the wreckage of
America's Iraq adventure.
Tomorrow a year will have passed since George Bush's
"Mission Accomplished" carrier landing. Throughout that
year - right up to the surge in violence this month -
administration officials assured us that things were going
well in Iraq. Living standards, they said, were steadily
improving. The resistance, they insisted, consisted of a
handful of dead-enders aided by a few foreign infiltrators
- and each lull in attacks brought pronouncements that the
campaign against the insurgents had turned the corner.
So they lied to us; what else is new? But there's more at
stake here than the administration's credibility. The
official story line portrayed a virtuous circle of
nation-building, one that could eventually lead to a
democratic Iraq, allied with the U.S. In fact, we seem to
be faced with a vicious circle, in which a deteriorating
security situation undermines reconstruction, and the lack
of material progress adds to popular discontent. Can this
situation be saved?
Even among harsh critics of the administration's Iraq
policy, the usual view is that we have to finish the job.
You've heard the arguments: We broke it; we bought it. We
can't cut and run. We have to stay the course.
I understand the appeal of those arguments. But I'm worried
about the arithmetic.
All the information I've been able to get my hands on
indicates that the security situation in Iraq is really,
really bad. It's not a good sign when, a year into an
occupation, the occupying army sends for more tanks.
Western civilians have retreated to armed enclaves. U.S.
forces are strong enough to defend those enclaves, and
probably strong enough to keep essential supplies flowing.
But we don't have remotely enough troops to turn the
vicious circle around. The Iraqi forces that were supposed
to fill the security gap collapsed - or turned against us -
at the first sign of trouble.
And all of the proposals one hears for resolving this ugly
situation seem to be either impractical or far behind the
curve.
Some say we should send more troops. But the U.S. military
doesn't have more troops to send, unless it resorts to
extreme measures, like withdrawing a large part of the
forces currently in South Korea. Did I mention that North
Korea is building nuclear weapons, and may already have
eight?
Others say we should seek more support from other
countries. There may once have been a time - say, last
summer - when the U.S. could have struck a deal: by ceding
a lot of authority to the U.N., we might have been able to
persuade countries with large armies, like India, to
contribute large numbers of peacekeeping troops. But it's
hard to imagine that anyone will now send significant
forces into the Iraqi cauldron.
Some pin their hopes on a political solution: they believe
that violence will subside if the U.N. is allowed to
appoint a caretaker government that Iraqis don't view as a
U.S. puppet.
Let's hope they're right. But bear in mind that right now
the U.S. is still planning to hand over "sovereignty" to a
body, yet to be named, that will have hardly any power at
all. For practical purposes, the U.S. ambassador will be
running the country. Americans may believe that everything
will change on June 30, but Iraqis are unlikely to be
fooled. And by the way, much of the Arab world believes
that we've been committing war crimes in Falluja.
I don't have a plan for Iraq. I strongly suspect, however,
that all the plans you hear now are irrelevant. If
America's leaders hadn't made so many bad decisions, they
might have had a chance to shape Iraq to their liking. But
that window closed many months ago.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/30/opinion/30KRUG.html?ex=1084331049&ei=1&en=02606430b0352921
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company