@Cycloptichorn,
With the proviso that between now and the election all sorts of strange things, both wonderful and horrible, can happen, I am confident Obama will lose.
Time and benign neglect from DC may be what is required to right our economy. Obama doesn't have enough of the former and cannot afford to attempt the latter even if he was inclined to do so.
Based on the peeks the WH has been providing, his "JOBS PLAN," it looks like more of the same failed policies.
The only chance for turning things around are free enterprise solutions. If Obama embraces the Dark Side and produces a real recovery, heck I might have to vote for him.
Right now Romney beats Obama by 2 percentage points in polling and Perry is tied with him. Bachmann and Paul are within 2 and 4 points of him!
This, at a time in the campaign process when all primary candidates appear pretty small. Eventually the GOP will have a nominee (and it won't be Bachmann or Paul) and their standing against a sitting president will great enlarge. If they're ahead or even with him now, it bodes very poorly for him in 2012.
Again something very strange could happen between now and then, but its unlikely. It conditions don't change dramatically, Obama will lose. How they reasonably be expected to so dramatically change?