The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

Is Herman Cain Becoming Legitimate Contender?

Cain is working hard to earn Iowans votes. He has a town hall meeting scheduled for Marshalltown on Tuesday, followed by a Linn County GOP chili cook-off in Cedar Rapids. He will return to the state Friday for the Pottawattamie County GOP’s fundraiser.

On Saturday, Herman Cain will hold a rally in Atlanta to announce his official candidacy for the presidency. He remains a long shot, but no candidate has gained more momentum in the past few weeks that Cain. If that momentum continues, Cain very well might be able to win it all.

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@ehBeth,

Thanks for the update, ehBeth. I think most pollsters and poll watchers will agree with me that, at this stage, name recognition is the big thing. Many people have heard of Romney but not Cain, for example. There certainly will be change once the candidates get into Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

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@H2O MAN,

I hope we will start hearing from Swimpy as the Iowa primary approaches.

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The Dark Horse

Herman Cain's political career began when he defeated Bill Clinton on live television.
If you missed it—and it was 17 years ago—it happened when the president was making
one of the last blitzes for his health care reform plan, and was holding town-hall-style
meetings to explain how mandating employer-based coverage would work.

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Did I miss on this thread the fallout to Newt Gingrich's comment about far right social engineering being as bad as far left social engineering?

Or was it just Jon Stewart's perception of the right's reaction?
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-may-18-2011/fast-dive

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@hingehead,

There's been mucho fallout. Ryan said something like "with allies like that, who needs the left?"

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Huntsman takes a step out of moderate territory:

Quote:

In his first major television interview of his likely presidential campaign rollout this morning, former Utah Gov. and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman avoided his own Newt Gingrich moment. The House Republican plan to privatize Medicare? Count Huntsman in.

"I would've voted for it," he told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Friday morning. "Including the Medicare provisions."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/no-newt-moment-for-jon-hunstman-hes-100-behind-ending-medicare.php

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

Huntsman takes a step out of moderate territory:

Quote:
In his first major television interview of his likely presidential campaign rollout this morning, former Utah Gov. and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman avoided his own Newt Gingrich moment. The House Republican plan to privatize Medicare? Count Huntsman in.

"I would've voted for it," he told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Friday morning. "Including the Medicare provisions."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/no-newt-moment-for-jon-hunstman-hes-100-behind-ending-medicare.php

Hee Hee Hee, I love it!

Are these guys just purely incapable of seeing how badly this is going to screw them?

Cycloptichorn

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@sozobe,

That's consistent with what I would have expected. Strong fiscal conservatism with moderate/liberal positions on social issues. At least he isn't being namby-pamby about it.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

That's consistent with what I would have expected. Strong fiscal conservatism with moderate/liberal positions on social issues. At least he isn't being namby-pamby about it.

Yeah, but is there any expectation that such a candidate can win the nomination? I just don't see how. The anti-Obama hate is so big on the right-wing, that anyone who agrees with any liberal position is just savaged for it.

Most of the Conservatives I talk to are dead convinced that they lost in '08, not because Obama was a good candidate, but because McCain was a weak one. And that he was weak because he was a moderate. This doesn't bode well for the chances of getting a moderate candidate through the primaries - or getting one to win in the general.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

The only way McCain won the primary bid was by pretending to be a conservative. Then he picked SP and all bets were off. What I like about Huntsman is that he's not pandering to the right - he's speaking to the swing voter as a fiscal conservative. Those who were originally attracted to the ideas of the Tea Party Movement (before it got usurped by the far right) will love him.

Huntsman is the one the Dems are most worried about in terms of electability. They needn't worry. He's too liberal on social issues to survive the primary process.

I know that conservatives think that they have an ideological leg up if they could get a strong conservative into the general. I disagree. I've said before that no one wins without the independents and the moderates. I still think that's true. Huntsman would give Obama a run for his money with the swing voter. A strong conservative wouldn't. Imagining for a second that a moderate Republican made it to the general election - would conservatives stay home?

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@JPB,

I don't know how anyone could have been fooled into thinking McCain was a Conservative; his whole shtick, for years, was that he was a 'maverick.' His signature pieces of legislation were anything BUT conservative. I think there's a different dynamic at play here.

I agree that Huntsman won't survive the primaries, but I disagree that the Dems are worried about him v. Obama.

Will Conservatives stay home, rather than vote for a squish? Absolutely.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Will Conservatives stay home, rather than vote for a squish? Absolutely.
Cycloptichorn

I don't think so, Cyclo. There could be a 3rd party conservative party candidate - but I don't see that happening. The right wing of the Repub party, with their intense dislike of Obama, will not stay home. They will swallow hard and vote for whomever the Repubs choose because whether for economic issues or social issues, defeating Obama is imperative.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Will Conservatives stay home, rather than vote for a squish? Absolutely.
Cycloptichorn

I don't think so, Cyclo. There could be a 3rd party conservative party candidate - but I don't see that happening. The right wing of the Repub party, with their intense dislike of Obama, will not stay home. They will swallow hard and vote for whomever the Repubs choose because whether for economic issues or social issues, defeating Obama is imperative.

I read a lot of Republican blogs and websites, and I just don't see this reflected in the commentary there. Is some of it angry bitching? Sure. But there is a real sense amongst their contributors and commentators that anyone who isn't a 'strict Conservative' simply will not excite voters and will not draw large levels of support. For example, Romney; if he ends up being the candidate, do you think that Republicans are going to turn out in mass numbers to elect him? I cannot think that this is the case.

And it's not just about voting on election day - it's about campaigning, donating money, and all the other crap that goes with elections. I just don't see this happening if a squish gets nominated.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

Cain is officially in.

Quote:

Herman Cain has run a pizza chain, hosted a talk radio show and sparred with Bill Clinton over health care. He's never held elected office.

Now the tea party favorite wants to be president.

"In case you accidentally listen to a skeptic or doubting Thomas out there, just be to clear ... I'm running for president of the United States and I'm not running for second," he told a crowd at Centennial Olympic Park on Saturday. Chants of "Herman" erupted.

...

Cain's platform
Cain supports a strong national defense, opposes abortion, backs replacing the federal income tax with a national sales tax and favors a return to the gold standard.

...

The late Jack Kemp, the GOP vice presidential nominee in 1996, once described Cain as having "the voice of Othello, the looks of a football player, the English of Oxfordian quality and the courage of a lion."

In 2006, Cain was diagnosed with liver and colon cancer. He says he's been cancer-free since 2007 and credits the nation's health care system with keeping him alive. He says it's one reason he's so opposed to the health overhaul championed by President Barack Obama. More

Sounds like another person who loves America's health care system because he has health care. Tell it to the people who don't.

1 Reply

@JPB,

Quote:

Cain's platform
Cain supports a strong national defense, opposes abortion, backs replacing the federal income tax with a national sales tax and favors a return to the gold standard.

Here's your pizza, Sir. Will that be cash, credit card or gold bullion? Oh, yes, there's a 50% tax on your pizza, you know, to help defray the costs of our soldiers trips to overseas countries.

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@Cycloptichorn,

How about the independents?

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@cicerone imposter,

CI's back! Where ya been, stranger?

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@cicerone imposter,

This doesn't really answer your question about Indy's, Tak, but I found it interesting. Gallup, which I picked because it is fresh (a few days ago), free and breaks the totals down into subsets, polled something like 1000 Adults asking them to indicate whether they Approve-Disapprove of Obama's job performance.
a) Overall (Approve 49%) (Disapprove 43%)

b) Democrat (83% - 17%)
c) Independent (46% - 54%)
d) Republican (16% - 84%)

e) liberal (76% - 24%)
f) moderate (58% - 42%)
g) conservative (29% - 71%)

h) liberal Democrat (88% - 12%)
i) moderate Democrat (83% - 17%)
j) conservative Democrat (73% - 27%)
k) pure independent (34% - 66%)
l) liberal/moderate Republican (28% - 72%)
m) conservative Republican (12% - 88%)

I am always suspicious about polls that ask people to describe themselves.

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Former Dem mayor of Salt Lake City talks about working with Jon Huntsman as a Republican governor (interview starts at the 10:25 mark after a bunch of other semi-related stuff).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43120920/ns/politics-decision_2012/

Actually, some of that semi-related stuff was interesting. Particularly the part about Iowa becoming irrelevant.

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The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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