The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/a-graphical-overview-of-the-2012-republican-field/

Quote:
One can certainly debate exactly what it means to be a moderate or a conservative, and exactly where any particular candidate falls along this spectrum. Likewise, the insider/outsider dimension is somewhat blurry: is a potential candidate like Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who aligns himself with the Tea Party but is also an influential senator, a part of the Republican establishment or an opponent of it? So my placement of the candidates is necessarily approximate.

There are two more kinds of information embedded in the chart. First, the area of each candidate’s circle is proportional to their perceived likelihood of winning the nomination.
Finally, the color of each circle reflects the region the candidate is from: blue for the Northeast, red for the South, green for the Midwest, and yellow for the West.

3 Replies

@realjohnboy,

The most pertinent parts:

Quote:

Senior political aides to Mr. Huckabee also said Friday they do not know what he will decide, raising suspicions that Mr. Huckabee will take a pass on another campaign.

Mr. Huckabee has been saying for months that he is seriously considering a run. But to do so, he would have to abandon his media empire, which includes his syndicated radio program and his television show, “Huckabee,” that airs on Fox News each weekend night at 8 p.m.

[...]

Ed Rollins, a veteran Republican strategist who has served as Mr. Huckabee’s top political adviser, said in an interview Friday that he does not believe Mr. Huckabee will run again.

“I have no idea,” Mr. Rollins said. But he added that the fact that Mr. Huckabee’s top people don’t know what announcement he will make is “pretty indicative that he’s not going to run.”

[....]

But he said that in the last two weeks Mr. Huckabee’s family expressed doubts about a run.

“They did not want him to run. I think that had a big impact,” Mr. Rollins said.

In addition, Mr. Rollins said that he did not think Fox News would allow Mr. Huckabee to use the platform of a news show on their network to make an announcement that he is running for president.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/huckabee-teases-decision-on-presidential-run

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@realjohnboy,

Hi, I reposted this graphic of Nate Silver's which appeared in Feb, 2011. Since then there have been a number of potential candidates drop out. Silver had an extended commentary which I have edited brutally to just stick to an explanation of what you are looking at and who might benefit from someone else dropping out.

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@sozobe,

I bet Fox offered Huckabee a show in Beck's time slot. He seems to like the camera a lot.

1 Reply

@sozobe,

Quote:

But he said that in the last two weeks Mr. Huckabee’s family expressed doubts about a run.

“They did not want him to run. I think that had a big impact,” Mr. Rollins said.

Please, please Dad, don't run. We don't want you to have to become a war criminal!

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@Irishk,

I suspect that Huckabee (born Aug, 1955) will decide that he will take a hike until 2016 when he will be 61.
In recent years, candidates for President increasing tended to bubble up from state governors' offices as opposed to the Congress (particularly the Senate). I think I can prove that.
If true, the problem for Senators is that they will often vote strategically for or against some bill until an amendment is added or dropped. And that can come to haunt him/her when taken out of context by an opponent.
Now, in a relatively new development, we have the politician turned talk show host turned politician.
Does that make sense?

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I apologize for dominating this thread this afternoon. There is some interesting news today of great significance on the election front.
Senator Herb Kohl (D-Wisconsin) has decided to not run for re-election in 2012. He was first elected in 1989.
He becomes the 8th Senator (5th Democrat) to decide to not seek election.
There is chatter today that Russ Feingold will be the likely Dem candidate. He lost his Senate seat in the 2010 race and, for better or worse, has good name recognition and could be competitive in 2012.
On the Republican side is House member Paul Ryan who devised the controversial Medicare reform thing. His seat is very safe. He could easily win reelection in 2012 and 2014. And he is the new Chairman of the House Budget Committee. But then what would he do come 2016? The Senate seat would be held by a fellow Repub.
Ryan is an ambitious person who splashed on the political scene and who may not be anxious to spend the next 4 years actually trying to guide his concepts through the House. I think he will opt for the Senate bid.
Regardless, the Kohl decision makes Wisconsin and Virginia two races to watch closely. There well could be flips from Dem to Repub (although I still see VA as a hold right now for the Dems).
I will be quiet now, although I have a couple of pages of notes to use or lose.

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@realjohnboy,

Don't be quiet, RJB; use them notes or lose them notes!

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

I tend to like moderate Republicans (i.e., social liberal and fiscal conservative) over just about any other candidate from either party if they remain true to their beliefs.

Daniels just quietly signed a bill that shuts down funding to Planned Parenthood in IN. He's the one who publicly suggested that social issues be put on hold so the candidates could focus on the economy. Talking heads are suggesting that his approval of the bill to strip PP of state funding is a message to the conservative base that he's on their side. Panderers make me ill, which is one of the reasons I bailed on McCain (Palin was the primary reason).

So... just when I think he's given up all credibility by pulling a John McCain he names Condi Rice (pro-choice) as a potential running mate. The ultimate panderer or just throwing **** and seeing what sticks?

http://www.lifenews.com/2011/05/13/mitch-daniels-names-pro-abortion-condi-rice-as-potential-vp/

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@JTT,

JTT wrote:

Don't be quiet, RJB; use them notes or lose them notes!

I assume you are funing with me. (That is a redneck expression).

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

I assure you, not in the least, RJB. I enjoyed that last analysis.

I'm aware of the idiom. The Sun shines upon rednecks everywhere.

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@realjohnboy,

Tammy Baldwin is being mentioned too. (She and Russ are two people I've voted for in the past, I like both of 'em but especially Russ.)

Russ Feingold is being mentioned a lot re: the governor position (running against the Imperial Walker), so if he goes for that I could see Tammy being the Dem senatorial candidate.

But if they're both going for senator I think Feingold is more likely.

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I remember all those democrats saying during the Bush years that they liked McCain. So the dumb republicans nominate the goat and what happens? Lesson learned? Don't listen to Democrats.

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@Renaldo Dubois,

And this has nothing to do with how flip-floppy and pandery McCain became.

I never would have voted for him, but I liked the McCain who was against torture and an actual "maverick" more than the very different McCain who campaigned for president in 2008.

edit: not never, I remember thinking early in the campaign that there were some situations in which I could imagine voting for him. Never would have voted for him on election day 2008 though.

1 Reply

@Renaldo Dubois,

Renaldo Dubois wrote:

I remember all those democrats saying during the Bush years that they liked McCain.
So the dumb republicans nominate the goat and what happens? Lesson learned? Don't listen to Democrats.

Exactly!

Even though the liberal media will once again attempt to pick
the Republican nominee, America will not fall for their trickery.

Conservatives must stick to conservative issues and force the left to own up
to driving our economy into the ground while spending money we don't have.

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Nice to see chicks, a black dude and a gay guy on the GOP stage.

Just started reading about the new guys.

I like Johnson so far.

Somebody give me the dirt on him.

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@Lash,

The only thing that rears it's head is he's more maverick-y than McCain ever dreamed... He seems a tad protectionist... isolationist. He'd need to speak to that. But, hell. There are some damn appealing opinions and ideas from him.

EDIT: Just posted and read a few back. It's really weird, but I didn't see that previous posters had just mentioned McCain AND "maverick." My post looks like it MUST be a response... I swear, I hadn't seen that post when I wrote mine.

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@Lash,

You mean Gary Johnson? You gotta watch that boy. As governor of NM, if he changed a single position from being candidate to being governor, I'm not aware of it. The pros in the state house at Santa Fe just hated him. I guess he was okay with the rest of us. He got reelected easily enough.

On the other hand, he rides a bicycle, and stuff like that.

Oh, but you wanted dirt. Once while gov, he worked out a ride in a low rider. A couple of days after playing this up, the owner of the car was busted for some sort of criminal activity. Must have been embarassing.

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Why Did Obama Run For President?

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@sozobe,

Quote:

nd this has nothing to do with how flip-floppy and pandery McCain became.

"became", Soz. McCain was always slimeball that moved whatever way would make things best for John McCain.

1 Reply

The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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