The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

@H2O MAN,

I do not see the answer...and my panties are not in a wad.

It requires a YES or NO.

Which is it?

@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

Yo, Beth…

…not really sure why so many Democrats and/or liberals are so sure Obama will win re-election. I am an ardent supporter of the man, but I want to be realistic when assessing what is going on. At best, it is 50/50 for his re-election…and with any kind of down-tick in the economy, I think the odds go in favor of anyone-but-Obama. Given the perfect storm, so to speak, it could easily be a landslide for the Republicans. I think there is no chance at all of a landslide for Obama…no matter what.

I am saddened by the fact that Newt seems to be struggling…he was the best chance left for the odds to start out at better than 50/50 for re-election.

I think it's more of a denial of the possible reality of Mitt being in charge. I can't imagine why anyone would want to live in THAT reality.

1 Reply

@Questioner,

Quote:

I think it's more of a denial of the possible reality of Mitt being in charge. I can't imagine why anyone would want to live in THAT reality.

Whatever the reason...there are HUGE numbers of people who want Obama out of office NO MATTER WHO TAKES OVER.

They have absolutely no problem whatever with the scenario of Romney...or anyone else...taking over.

H2O may be annoying...but he is spot on right about that.

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@Frank Apisa,

Agreed. They see this as the same scenario that the country saw with the GOP party 3 years ago. It didn't really matter who the Dem nominee was, ANYTHING was better than 4 more years of GOP screw-ups.

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@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

Quote:
I think it's more of a denial of the possible reality of Mitt being in charge. I can't imagine why anyone would want to live in THAT reality.

Whatever the reason...there are HUGE numbers of people who want Obama out of office NO MATTER WHO TAKES OVER.

One would think that the polling evidence would be indicating Obama losing the election, to a far greater degree than it currently does, if those numbers were really all that huge. But polling does NOT show this to be the case - at all. I think you spend too much time hanging around a very vocal minority online.

There were huge numbers dead-set against Bush in 2004 (including myself). That's not enough to win in the absence of a candidate people can get behind.

Cycloptichorn

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@Frank Apisa,

realjohnboy posed the question here: http://able2know.org/topic/165850-287#post-4879047 and I answered him.

Frank Apisa wrote:

If Romney wins the nomination, will you support him enthusiastically and unconditionally?

YES.

1 Reply

@H2O MAN,

Quote:

realjohnboy posed the question here: http://able2know.org/topic/165850-287#post-4879047 and I answered him.

Thank you, H2O...although a simple YES would have done nicely also--and would have saved lots of time.

Some of the conversations in this thread has been so off-beat and petty, I really have not been following it...so I missed that.

I do appreciate the link, though.

EVERYONE ELSE:

This is something I think ought to concern anyone who wants Barack Obama to be re-elected. Conservatives like H2O apparently ARE going to bite-the-bullet and support Romney enthusiastically even though they have substantial concerns about him.

On the other hand, there are many far-left liberals I know who will NOT vote for Obama under any circumstances...and WILL vote third party or stay home rather than do so.

Obama is in big trouble--and most of progressive/liberal America is in deep denial about it.

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@Frank Apisa,

I DIDN'T REALIZE THE POST WAS BURIED SO FAR BACK - MY BAD.

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@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

This is something I think ought to concern anyone who wants Barack Obama to be re-elected. Conservatives like H2O apparently ARE going to bite-the-bullet and support Romney enthusiastically even though they have substantial concerns about him.

On the other hand, there are many far-left liberals I know who will NOT vote for Obama under any circumstances...and WILL vote third party or stay home rather than do so.

Obama is in big trouble--and most of progressive/liberal America is in deep denial about it.

YES!

Look at it this way: Obama is like a cancerous tumor in this country
and he/it needs to be removed in order for the country to survive.

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@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

On the other hand, there are many far-left liberals I know who will NOT vote for Obama under any circumstances...and WILL vote third party or stay home rather than do so.

Sorry, but this is bullshit. Why are Conservatives going to unite against Obama, even though most of them despise Romney, but Liberals - who consistently support Obama in polling - will not unite for him? I have little doubt that 75%+ of those people who swear up and down they won't vote for Obama, will vote for him. Just like these same (mostly die-hard Hillary supporters) did last cycle, after swearing up and down that they wouldn't.

There is no more evidence to support your position regarding Conservatives coalescing than there is your position regarding Liberals doing so. Yet you assume that one is a given and the other simply will never happen. I don't understand the logic behind this in the slightest, and I'd like to hear a greater explanation from you as to why you are so sure about it.

Where is the polling data that backs up what you are saying??? Is there any, or is it all Anecdotal, all the time?

Cycloptichorn

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Cyclo is one that is in super deep denial.

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@Cycloptichorn,

Frank did say "far left liberals." I don't think it's bullshit at all (unfortunately). I, too, know of some who think that Obama fell so far short of their expectations, they simply won't vote for him. See, for example, edgarblythe's thread on why he won't vote for Obama's re-election. Personally, I deplore this attitude. But it's there. Bullshit it ain't. Again, unfortunately.

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@Lustig Andrei,

Lustig Andrei wrote:

Frank did say "far left liberals." I don't think it's bullshit at all (unfortunately). I, too, know of some who think that Obama fell so far short of their expectations, they simply won't vote for him. See, for example, edgarblythe's thread on why he won't vote for Obama's re-election. Personally, I deplore this attitude. But it's there. Bullshit it ain't. Again, unfortunately.

What you meant to say is they SAY they won't vote for him. When push comes to shove, most of them will.

Part of any campaign lies in convincing die-hard lefties or righties that the other guy is much scarier than the current guy; many of those who are currently (and idiotically) claiming they will never vote for Obama haven't fully considered the alternative, or the effect of them not doing so.

It's really easy to pout and piss and moan about and say that you'll never vote for someone. It's a lot harder to keep that up once you start thinking about the true effects of that. I'll remind you that there is no difference at all between this, and the die-hard Hillary supporters in 2008, who also swore up and down that they would never vote for Obama. The vast majority of them did so.

In short, talk is cheap.

Cycloptichorn

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... Super secret deep denial.

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@Lustig Andrei,

Lustig Andrei wrote:

I, too, know of some who think that Obama fell so far short of their expectations, they simply won't vote for him.

Failed experiment defined

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@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

Where is the polling data that backs up what you are saying??? Is there any, or is it all Anecdotal, all the time?

I acknowledge that a great deal of it is anecdotal...but some of the posts and threads in other forums (forums with a much, much larger population) indicate that the anger and hatred from the left often exceeds some of the crap coming from the right. (H2O is an exception. He seems to be as anti-Obama as any of the folks I am using to form my opinion.)

Cyclop...it strictly is an OPINION...and I do not have hard data to back me up. But the fact that Obama is polling almost neck and neck with Romney right now, is not a pleasant indicator for those of us who want Obama re-elected. The incumbent should be comfortably ahead.

Look...if you want me to say I may be dead wrong, here it is....I MAY BE DEAD WRONG!

But two things I bring to the table that have to be considered.

One: I have seldom if ever heard a conservative say he/she will not definitely vote for the Republican candidate if that candidate was not the one he/she was supporting...

...and have heard dozens upon dozens of self-described liberals contend they will not vote for Obama UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES WHATEVER.

Even if some of them do eventually change their mind...their proclamations are swaying uncommitted people in the middle of the political spectrum to move toward the Republican. (If his own people will not support him....)

Two: The word "liberal" honestly has become the kiss of death in our country. Nobody can run for nation wide office using "liberal" as a mantra. But conservatives fight over using the word "conservative." The argue over who is most conservative; who has longest been a conservative; who truly represents conservative values....and such. Have you ever heard politicians arguing over who is the most liberal; who has been a liberal longest; who truly represents liberal values?

MY BET: No you haven't...and you won't any time soon.

All of which form the basis for the OPINION I shared.

1 Reply

@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

If Romney wins the nomination, will you support him enthusiastically and unconditionally?

Romney is my choice, but as Andy recently said, in possibly a different context, he's looking like the best horse in the glue factory.

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@roger,

You wrote,

Quote:

he's looking like the best horse in the glue factory.

Now, that's a quote I'd like to remember and use; it's analogy at its best!

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Nate Silver has some numbers out today on turnout in the states that have had primaries/caucuses thus far:
Iowa: -11%; New Hampshire: -15%; South Carolina: +20%; Florida: -16%.
FL was a closed primary for registered Repubs while SC was, I believe, an open primary where Indies (and even Dems) could play.
Nate muses, and it can be seen in some of the comments to various articles, that the amount and negative tone of much of the advertising was possible a turnoff to some voters. They might have decided to stay home.

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@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

Quote:
Where is the polling data that backs up what you are saying??? Is there any, or is it all Anecdotal, all the time?

I acknowledge that a great deal of it is anecdotal...but some of the posts and threads in other forums (forums with a much, much larger population) indicate that the anger and hatred from the left often exceeds some of the crap coming from the right. (H2O is an exception. He seems to be as anti-Obama as any of the folks I am using to form my opinion.)

Do you know that these people are actually Democrats? I ask, because there are several forums - Conservative forums - where I post on a regular basis, without actively advertising my true preferences. If you get my meaning.

Quote:

Cyclop...it strictly is an OPINION...and I do not have hard data to back me up. But the fact that Obama is polling almost neck and neck with Romney right now, is not a pleasant indicator for those of us who want Obama re-elected. The incumbent should be comfortably ahead.

Well in an ideal world, yeah, lol.

I guess all I can say is, the man is ahead and has several inherent advantages. And he hasn't spent a single dime on the campaign yet!

Take a look at recent polling -

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Would I be happier if Obama was +5 or +10%? Of course I would. But I'm happy that he has ANY lead at all, given the last few years we've seen. And in polling breakdowns that I've seen, FAR higher percentages of Liberals and Dems indicate satisfaction with Obama, than Republicans do with Romney. Far higher.

Take a look at Romney's favorability ratings -

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/02/chart-of-the-day-how-badly-did-florida-hurt-romney/252360/

The moment they started to turn around is when Bain Capital and his fortune began to be discussed in the media. From that point on Romney's ratings have plummeted - especially amongst independent voters. You look at this, and think it's a bad sign for Obama?

Quote:

One: I have seldom if ever heard a conservative say he/she will not definitely vote for the Republican candidate if that candidate was not the one he/she was supporting...

Do you read any GOP message boards? At all? I'm telling ya Frank I read comments like this every single day. I have read 25+ comments today from people who swear that they will not vote for Romney under any circumstances. Today alone!

And from an anecdotal point of view, as I had mentioned earlier in this thread, at Christmas this year, my entire Republican family (20+ Texan Conservatives) were disgusted with Romney. They hate the man! They don't trust him in the slightest, and why should they? I'm sure some of them will vote for him, but the majority wanted... 'Anyone but Romney!' They don't think he can win.

Quote:

...and have heard dozens upon dozens of self-described liberals contend they will not vote for Obama UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES WHATEVER.

Even if some of them do eventually change their mind...their proclamations are swaying uncommitted people in the middle of the political spectrum to move toward the Republican. (If his own people will not support him....)

Polling shows Obama getting support from similar percentages of support as his last election run. I can't put it any simpler than that. Talk is cheap; many of those people will eventually vote for him.

Quote:

Two: The word "liberal" honestly has become the kiss of death in our country. Nobody can run for nation wide office using "liberal" as a mantra. But conservatives fight over using the word "conservative." The argue over who is most conservative; who has longest been a conservative; who truly represents conservative values....and such. Have you ever heard politicians arguing over who is the most liberal; who has been a liberal longest; who truly represents liberal values?

MY BET: No you haven't...and you won't any time soon.

This is in large part b/c the Conservatives have spent a metric ton of cash over the last 30 years to define 'liberalism' in exactly that fashion: a negative one. And the so-called 'liberal' media does nothing to keep them from doing so, whatsoever.

Quote:

All of which form the basis for the OPINION I shared.

Opinions are great; but without evidence, why should anyone worry about them? I have found that anecdotal evidence is never a good predictor of future events or wide trends. And there are several reasons for Obama supporters to feel positive moving into the next election. It's going to be a hard struggle; nobody claims any differently (unless Gingrich were to win, in which case, it's Obama in a landslide). But there's little reason to not feel good about Obama's chances.

Cycloptichorn

2 Replies

The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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