The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

still, it could be one hell of a hoot with NEwt giving his "off the cuff remarks" He would make Joe Biden sound like George Bernard Shaw or JAmes McNeill WHistler

haha, well, I also think it would be entertaining. But a loss to Obama, and a failure to either pick up the Senate or hold the House, would be devastating to the current GOP groups in Washington. Truly devastating. These guys bought into their own bullshit in 2010 and really did believe that this was going to be another wave election, pushing in a Conservative prez and dozens more congressmen.

Who's kicking themselves the most? Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Setanta,

Here's a list of the 132 "at large" delegates to the Republican Convention.

http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

1 Reply

@parados,

Thanks. Parados, for that link.

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

I'm glad to see that most people posting here are optimistic about the future of the Democrats. It doesn't match up with what I'm seeing over on Facebook with my 'regular folk' gaming friends, and what I see there makes me quite uneasy. They're not tea party people, but there are a lot of no more Obama posters.

They were incensed by the whole 'Obama got rid of the White House Christmas Tree' story - didn't matter if I showed them that the White House press releases called it a Christmas Tree - they didn't believe it. They think he is not Christian, and there seems to be no way past that mental block for them. They don't love Romney or Gingrich either - as they're not Christian either - but

Quote:

"they're closer"

.

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@ehBeth,

I don't think Obama is courting the Conservative vote one way or another.

There's not much he can do to counter idiocy amongst fools, such as the Christmas tree story you told me. It makes me sad to read that such people exist. They may not be 'tea party' people, but they are surely idiots to believe such obvious trash, and to be unable to reform their beliefs in the face of facts to the contrary. As I said in the 2012 election thread this morning, I believe there is a great deal of latent antipathy towards the man based on his race, which drives most of the nebulous character smears against him.

Irregardless, the fact is that Obama polls in the double-digits ahead of Santorum and Newt, and a point or two ahead of Romney; it's pretty clear that the best candidate to win against Obama is in fact Romney. And Obama has not yet even begun to campaign; he'll have a massive amount of time and money to both negatively define his opponent down, and actually remind folks who don't pay much attention to politics about how things have really gone over the last three years.

Cycloptichorn

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Romney grudgingly announces that he will release on Tuesday his 2010 tax return and an estimated return for 2011. That, he claims, will make the "distraction" go away.
I don't think that will be the case at all. Obama and Bush did more than one of two years. Mitt's dad did something like twelve years worth of returns.
It is astonishing how badly his people have handled this.

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@ehBeth,

Obama's not going to get everyone's vote.

I don't think he'll get more than 60% -- I think there's a solid 40% that just won't vote for him, period. Maybe 65/35.

The thing is, he only needs 51%, and right now conditions indicate that it will be difficult for the Republicans to come up with a nominee who will be able to effectively counteract the enthusiasm, infrastructure, and money of the Obama campaign.

The Republican base is just not that into Romney. Newt has weaknesses up the wazoo.

I don't think it'll be a landslide unless the economy perks up considerably -- which it might.

But Romney is showing that he has a real problem with evangelicals and a certain kind of southern voter that he'd need to win. Even if they would never vote for Obama in a million years, they might stay home instead of voting for Romney.

I see those people on Facebook too, just got in a discussion with a cousin who has been posting a bunch of anti-Obama stuff, I finally had to say something after seeing this one:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/407879_2507296250756_1503540573_31933890_696662953_n.jpg

2 Replies

@sozobe,

Did it work? Did saying something get through?

Cycloptichorn

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@ehBeth,

Quote:

It doesn't match up with what I'm seeing over on Facebook with my 'regular folk' gaming friends, and what I see there makes me quite uneasy. They're not tea party people, but there are a lot of no more Obama posters.

Absolutely, Beth. And it doesn't match up with the sentiment in another very liberal forum in which I post. The "very liberal" element there says they are going to sit the election out rather than vote for Obama. Their anger toward him, which I attribute to unrealistic expectations, is enormous...and I honestly do not see them voting for him no matter what. They would much rather throw out the baby with the bath water.

I HOPE that I am dead wrong on this...but I see as much, if not more, chance of Obama losing than of his winning. The talk of almost certainty here seems more like wishful thinking than anything else.

BUT I HOPE I AM WRONG!

We'll see come November...but I caution everyone not to underestimate the enemy. That is when you get burned.

2 Replies

@sozobe,

Quote:

I see those people on Facebook too, just got in a discussion with a cousin who has been posting a bunch of anti-Obama stuff, I finally had to say something after seeing this one:

So what did you say, Soz?

1 Reply

@Frank Apisa,

Quote:

Their anger toward him, which I attribute to unrealistic expectations

Betcha 95% of them were Hillary supporters in '08, who had already pre-decided that Obama was going to be a failure. I dealt with tremendous amounts of the same people in '08, online, and Obama sailed to victory over a weak McCain. He won't have an easy time of it this time, but he won't be sunk by Liberal purity trolls either.

Some of them will end up voting for him, many will not, but I certainly don't see any of the 'very liberals' voting for the other guy, whoever it ends up being.

I think that Obama will have a hard road no matter who the GOP nominee is, but much of the 'relief' you see amongst liberals here comes from the fact that Obama's opponents have so many flaws. It's widely recognized on both sides of the fence that he's not facing the GOP A-team this cycle. It's like going into a big football matchup, against a tough team for sure; but you know the other team's run defense is ****, and they have a lot of issues with penalties, so you feel somewhat better about your chances than you might normally.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

@JTT,

I said "Scary stuff, glad it's not true! Smile

"

Then I said that first of all, the deficit was 10.6 trillion when Bush left office.

Then also posted this:

It kind of got through. Several other people piped up with "thanks for setting the record straight" sorts of things. I had the impression that a lot of people who like him have been annoyed at all the anti-Obama stuff he's been posting. (For example, another one was Obama as Steve Urkel saying "Did I do thaaat?")

He came back with a super-long thing that was kind of defensive and I backed off. He is my cousin, and I'd made my point. He did concede that the thing he posted was wrong, so that was enough.

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@sozobe,

Where did that pic, and the info, in your first post come from?

Quote:

the deficit was 10.6 trillion when Bush left office.

Was Bush responsible for all 10.6 trillion?

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@sozobe,

Where is "Policy Changes Under Two Presidents" from?

1 Reply

@JTT,

Easy way to find that out is to copy the source of the picture and paste it into a new tab in your browser - in this case, it's from the NYT.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

Quote:
It doesn't match up with what I'm seeing over on Facebook with my 'regular folk' gaming friends, and what I see there makes me quite uneasy. They're not tea party people, but there are a lot of no more Obama posters.

Absolutely, Beth. And it doesn't match up with the sentiment in another very liberal forum in which I post. The "very liberal" element there says they are going to sit the election out rather than vote for Obama.

it's not just the 'very liberal'.

I get that Obama has money and he has organization, but I'm not seeing much of the enthusiasm Sozobe suggests is out there for him.

When there's a big whack of conservatives and Republicans (definitely not the same group) saying they'll vote against Obama, and a noticeable drop-off in the group that says they'll vote for him ... I get a sinking feeling.

I posted about the Democrat pundits worrying about turn-out some months - now I'm seeing it on the food boards, at FB, on a media board I follow - there's a considerable group of "can't be bothered" Democrats. The liberal contingent will sit it out, if Democrats do as well ... blerrrghhh

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"he can't just campaign as the opposition to Bush. I wonder what he's going to brand around this time. I can't think of anything compelling (other than being the anti-dote to his competition) and whether or not anyone considers it fair, the national consensus seems to be that he was a disappointment, and I wonder if that will be seized upon by his Republican rival and what it is that Obama will use as his central campaign theme.

I'm thinking he will win largely because of the weakness (and general nuttiness) of the current crop of Republican candidates"

These are some of Robert Gentel's musings, on a thread he began in December. So far, it seems to me, Obama has decided to act like a Democrat, in hope of reviving his own party's enthusiasm. I just think - "Just a dog-boned minute. He decides to be a good Democrat after three years. I am inclined to believe that will only last until the election is decided." - I am one, who will vote third party or else sit it out. Many of us feel the Democrats in general only act like Democrats at election time.

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@edgarblythe,

I'm with you! This crop of candidates for president of the US are destroying this country with their lies and unethical behavior; there's no more "class" left in our head of state. Their messages don't align with what they do when they take office. It's all a sham.

1 Reply

@edgarblythe,

Quote:

Many of us feel the Democrats in general only act like Democrats at election time.

I see this, and it just kills me, as Obama has done more to support Dem and Liberal causes than any president in my entire lifetime - and in a difficult environment, where his opponents have openly stated that they will oppose anything he proposes.

I mean, what more do you people want? Geez. Who the **** is Obama being compared to, and found wanting?

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:
Many of us feel the Democrats in general only act like Democrats at election time.

I see this, and it just kills me, as Obama has done more to support Dem and Liberal causes than any president in my entire lifetime - and in a difficult environment, where his opponents have openly stated that they will oppose anything he proposes.

I mean, what more do you people want? Geez. Who the **** is Obama being compared to, and found wanting?

Cycloptichorn

THANK YOU Cyclops -
I would like to see ed's answer to that. And ed - when you tell us who you compare Obama to, when you find him "not a real Democrat" for the last 3 years, could you be specific?

0 Replies

The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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