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The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:19 am
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

Really, of all the reasons I'd like Newt to be the nominee, that's about number one.

Conservatives are so caught up in the Fox nexus that they actually believe that bullshit about Newt being "knowledge" and Obama being a "teleprompter."

But the thing is, if it actually is Newt vs. Obama in a debate, the filters come off.

And that would be fun fun fun. Very Happy


I have little doubt that Obama would absolutely demolish Newt in a debate. His bullshit only plays well to a far-right wing audience, and to a format in which the candidates rarely directly engage each other. Primary debates with more than 3 participants are more like 4 separate interviews on stage together. Newt says so much crazy ****, he would be unable to defend or explain the inherent problems with it when questioned by someone who is far more pointed than a moderator.

Like I said earlier in the thread though - god doesn't love me enough to make Newt the nominee...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:22 am
@sozobe,
Just to add one more thing:

One problem Obama has had is being too professorial. Cool, calm, rational, intellectual, etc.

It would be such a gift if Newt comes blustering up to a presidential debate with his claims of great intellect and debate mastery -- so Obama doesn't have to back away from the professorial thing and can instead just calmly flay Newt.

Either intellect matters -- and Obama has more to display than Newt -- or intellect doesn't matter, and Newt's raison d'etre evaporates.

Edit: didn't see you there, Cycloptichorn. Yeah. I think winning South Carolina may well happen, but I think there'd be too much panic in the ranks as Gingrich comes into focus for him to actually win the nomination. There remains the panic in the ranks re: Romney, though, so there is some hope.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:23 am
@sozobe,
The problem for Newt with a good block of the social conservatives is that the repentant sinner is now a Catholic. That's a big issue for a few groups who do not think that Catholics are Christians.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:24 am
@ehBeth,
Ah, good point.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:30 am
@sozobe,


Liberals are so caught up in the bullshit nexus of democrat lies that they have been inoculated to resit the truth.
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:31 am
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

Meanwhile, Newt's lead in SC is growing.


Yes it is!
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:32 am
@H2O MAN,
H2O MAN wrote:



Liberals are so caught up in the bullshit nexus of democrat lies that they have been inoculated to resit the truth.


Isn't it about time you resat the truth? You keep failing.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:33 am
Uh oh -

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/updates/4378?ref=fpblg

Romney is dropping in nation-wide surveys and Gingrich is surging!

Cycloptichorn
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:34 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:



http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/updates/4378?ref=fpblg

Romney is dropping in nation-wide surveys and Gingrich is surging!




Yes!
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:47 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Romney's had a really bad stretch (Bain, taxes, debate performance).

I really think if there's a viable alternative he/ she would have emerged by now. So I tend to think that after some freaking out, people will revert to Romney.

But now that we're in actual primaries rather than just the polls leading up to it, who knows, could be a long and messy primary season.

Which would be fine with me. Very Happy
0 Replies
 
firefly
 
  2  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:49 am
@sozobe,
Quote:
The Marianne stuff hasn't had enough time to percolate, so that's unclear still. My own gut feeling is that Marianne's interview coming just before the debate and Newt's chance to react forcefully (and blame the media in the process) means that it will be mostly a wash. But we'll see.

This isn't the first time that Newt's serial adultery has been raised as an issue for him, nor is it the first time that Marianne has spoken out (see the links from last year's long article on Newt, in Esquire, in my previous post). But this may well be the first time that people start taking it seriously, mainly in terms of what it says about his character and his hypocrisy.
Quote:
The New York Times
January 19, 2012
Moralizing’s High Cost

Multiple marriages and even adultery are not automatic disqualifications for the presidency. If they were, the country would have a very different roster of former presidents and candidates. But when a political party decides that moralizing about personal conduct is as important as public policy, it inevitably makes some of its leaders vulnerable to the worst charges of hypocrisy.

In this political cycle, it is Newt Gingrich who has been unable to escape the toxic combination of infidelity and sermonizing. The stories about his three marriages have been known for years, but every time he seems to have escaped the wrath of Republican voters, they rise again.

On Thursday, they were resurrected by his second wife, Marianne, who told ABC News that he had sought an “open marriage” arrangement in 1999 so that he could have her blessing to conduct an affair while remaining married to her. She refused, the couple divorced, and the woman he had been seeing is now his third wife, Callista Gingrich, who accompanies him everywhere on the campaign trail. Mr. Gingrich later denied the claim.

Marianne Gingrich’s most devastating memory is that the day after his request, Mr. Gingrich gave a speech entitled, “The Demise of American Culture.” Among other things, he said in the speech that the elimination of prayer in schools had left American teenagers morally adrift.

Thirteen years later, campaigning for president, Mr. Gingrich is still trying to tell Americans how to run their lives. He supports a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. He accuses Mitt Romney of being insufficiently anti-abortion, even pointing out that Mr. Romney expanded access to abortion pills. He lectures black people about valuing jobs and children in the purgatory of housing projects for lacking a work ethic. He signed a personal pledge to, at long last, “uphold the institution of marriage through personal fidelity to my spouse.”

The abundant contradictions here are troubling even to some of his most fervent supporters. At a town-hall-style session in Beaufort, S.C., on Thursday, a former Marine drill instructor took the microphone to call Mr. Gingrich as inspiring as Winston Churchill — but also to tell him he remained troubled by his “lapses in personal judgment.” The Marine wondered how Mr. Gingrich could face President Obama in the fall with his past.

Mr. Gingrich responded that he knew the issue would dog him through the campaign, but that he and his wife decided “the country was worth the pain.” He told the Marine — and all voters struggling with the same question — that the decision was one that “you have to make.”

It’s magnanimous of him to be willing to allow voters to decide for themselves on the importance of his moral choices, since he and his party have been so unwilling to allow the public to make its own moral choices.

For too many Republicans, it’s not enough that Americans are free to pray in the house of worship of their choice; they want all children to be required to pray in school. They want to impose their own ideas about sexuality and abortion on everyone. And they love to accuse Democrats of being insufficiently pious. (Rick Perry’s exit from the race on Thursday may mean no more ads accusing President Obama of a “war on religion” and liberals of believing faith is a sign of weakness. Or, it may not, depending on how desperate the other candidates get.)

When Republican officials then get caught violating one of the Ten Commandments, they make an enormous show of contrition and repentance and ask for the public’s forgiveness. But as the hypocrisy level continues to rise, that forgiveness may become much harder to provide.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/20/opinion/moralizings-high-cost.html?_r=1&hp


Marianne Gingrich, in the earlier Esquire interview, paints a picture of a man who has also gradually become more corrupt as he became increasingly involved in lobbying and building a financial empire. That sort of thing is potentially more damaging than his past adulterous behavior because it suggests that the man is untrustworthy, and not just in his personal affairs.
In addition, her description of him as emotionally unstable and erratic does jive with what others have said about him, and it further casts doubt on his fitness for the Presidency.

I think the one who is most likely to nail Newt on all of this is Santorum, and he began doing that in last night's debate. He's the one who probably will hammer at the hypocrisy of the man, and his attempts to try to re-write his own past legacy.

If Newt winds up as the last man standing against Obama, the main issue will be whether anyone, and not just his wives, can trust him, because his duplicity his been revealed in all areas of his life. He can't keep side-stepping the issue, or deal with it by tossing off another mea culpa, or by blaming the media, as he did last night, because this is a legitimate issue in someone who aspires to the highest office in the land. Marianne won't be the only person warning voters not to trust him, with good reason.
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:55 am
One thought, not sure what the implications are exactly:

Romney and Hillary are similar this year because of their air of inevitability.

They seem to react similarly when that inevitability is threatened, too. Romney does best when he's part of the smooth oiled machine, gliding towards the nomination. He really doesn't seem to react well to adversity.

So that's what I still find interesting -- whether he can still manage to shoot himself in the foot by reacting really badly when things aren't going smoothly.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:55 am
I forgot to mention it, but did you see that Romney referred to himself as 'someone from the real streets of America?' Laughing Rolling Eyes

He probably actually believes that!

Cycloptichorn
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:55 am
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

I think it's a sign of how much disdain they have for the media, hence the standing ovation. Evangelicals are all about grace and redemption. Newt is the anti-media candidate. That will play big in SC.


Agree completely.

90% of the comments posted to conservative blogs are essentially: "You tell those bastards Newt!"

What we will need to see is how SC Republicans decide the following dilemma:

On the one hand, they believe that the character of a candidate is important and they judge a person's character, to a large extent, on how they behave in their marriage. Most were probably quite vocal about how it mattered very much that Bill Clinton got a blowjob in the Oval Office. If the Open Marriage story involved a Democrat, it would very definitely matter to them, and if it involved a Republican in a state or local election it would definitely matter to them.

On the other hand, this is a national race with the involvement of the national media, and they are sick and tired of the MSM's double standard of reporting based on party affiliation.

ABC runs a potentially inflammatory story about Gingrich just 48 hours before the polls open. What's more, it is a story that has already been told. The NYT published an edition with the headline "Gingrich ex-wife says he asked for Open Marriage."

What MSM outlet covered the affair that John Edwards was involved in during the primaries, while his wife was suffering from cancer and that resulted in a love child he had his aide claim paternity for?

The answer is none. The NYT didn't give an inch of ink to the story until after the National Enquirer broke it.

This is only one very prominent example of the MSM's double standard. There are many others and every time Republicans witness it in practice, it infuriates them more.

It isn't so much that ABC ran the interview, or the NYT reported on the story. Republican voters tend to think marriage related character issues matter, and it informs their voting decision, but they are so disgusted with the MSM bias that this fury has the potential to outweigh the outrage they might feel about Gingrich.

And when Gingrich angrily says to media moderators at this latest and prior debates what they themselves have been screaming at their TVs for years, they go wild and even stand up to applaud.

Gingrich is well aware of this dilemma and he is playing it like a fiddle. There is no doubt that he was prepared for King's question last night, and I would go further and suggest he was hoping for it.

Notwithstanding his tepid claims of repentance and redemption, he has known that his behavior during his marriages could represent the single greatest danger to his presidential ambition. Newt is a very clever politician and you can take it to the bank that he had devised a strategy to address the issue before he decided to run.

Again, repentance and redemption is the secondary element of the strategy and the one he used when his Republican opposition very carefully brought up the issue during debates. The main strategy was to come out guns blazing and cut down some smarmy media clown (as only Newt can do) and turn the issue to media bias rather than his actions.

One would almost think ABC and CNN were working with his campaign to neutralize the vulnerability of his marital history. This was his inoculation. Now when anyone brings the subject up a large segment of the voters will see it only as a stale hit job by the folks who have protected Barrack Obama and lost all curiosity about his past for the last four years.

Gingrich has serious character flaws and while I too yell at the TV whenever the MSM bias blatantly displays itself, I don't think SC voters should ignore these flaws because Gingrich is using them to channel their frustration and anger with the MSM.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:55 am
@Cycloptichorn,
I know!

<shakes head>
0 Replies
 
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 10:59 am
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:
Romney and Hillary are similar this year because of their air of inevitability.


Romney/Hillary 2012, a dream team
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  5  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 11:00 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:
What MSM outlet covered the affair that John Edwards was involved in during the primaries, while his wife was suffering from cancer and that resulted in a love child he had his aide claim paternity for?

The answer is none. The NYT didn't give an inch of ink to the story until after the National Enquirer broke it.

This is only one very prominent example of the MSM's double standard. There are many others and every time Republicans witness it in practice, it infuriates them more.


You're serious?

What about Fox, then? Why didn't they break the Edwards story... because of concern for his sick wife?

The story here is that ALL of the media except for the National Enquirer couldn't find anything beyond the rumors. They looked (everyone wants to be the one to break this stuff -- Gary Hart anyone?) but they couldn't find enough on it to publish it as a credible news item. The National Enquirer, not known for being limited to credible news items, did go after it on all cylinders and sure enough, it turned out to be an actual story.

This isn't a double-standard situation.

Quote:
One would almost think ABC and CNN were working with his campaign to neutralize the vulnerability of his marital history. This was his inoculation. Now when anyone brings the subject up a large segment of the voters will see it only as a stale hit job by the folks who have protected Barrack Obama and lost all curiosity about his past for the last four years.


This I agree with. Not so strongly, in that I'm not sure he's entirely inoculated. But I think this played into his hands perfectly. (Especially, opening the debate with that question, giving him extra ammo and oomph in his high dudgeon.)
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 11:02 am
Quote:
January 20, 2012 9:45 AM
What retreat looks like

About a month ago, Mitt Romney was asked whether he’d release his tax returns. He said, “I doubt it,” adding, “I don’t intend to.”

Eight days later, Romney said he’d “consider” releasing his tax returns, but the disclosure would only come after he’s elected to the White House.

Earlier this week, Romney said he’s “not opposed” to disclosure, “if” there’s been a “tradition.” He added he’ll “keep that open” around “the April time period.”

Last night, Romney said he’ll “probably” release his tax returns. Asked about previous years, he said, “Maybe.”

And that led to a new position this morning on Fox News.

“I’ll release those on April 15.”

For those keeping score at home, that’s five different positions on disclosure in just four weeks.

Also note, when Romney addressed the subject this morning, he said he doesn’t want to “give the Democrats a nice little present of having multiple releases.”

I’m not sure why Republicans should find this reassuring: if Romney’s tax returns include “presents” for Democrats, why should GOP primary voters spend the next three months voting for him?


http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2012_01/what_retreat_looks_like034878.php

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 11:15 am
@revelette,
Good observation and analysis of events in SC.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Jan, 2012 11:21 am
@firefly,
Sounds to me like the moral majority are all screwed up! They don't even know which is up or down.
 

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