@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:
I do think it's a pretty solid indictment of Perry, and secondarily a pretty solid "eh" re: Romney. (Perry tried hard to win there, Romney skipped it.) In Florida, anyway. But Florida is supposed to be big in deciding the nominee.
Substitute "mehh" for "eh" and I agree.
Florida should have some 99 delegates at the GOP convention which is the third highest total behind California (169) and New York (149), so you can see why it is said FL will have influence in deciding who the nominee is.
In addition it will hold the 5th of the 2012 GOP primaries sometime in late January or early February. It's by far the largest state of the first 5, and unless the FL winner has already run away with the first 4 primaries, taking FL should be a big boost.
The FL Straw Poll has for some time been considered a bellwether for the GOP presidential nomination, but it's hard to know where pure odds begin and demographics end. The media loves to report on bellwethers.
There are seven states considered bellwethers for the presidential election and Florida is one of them. In addition to the seven states, Guam is also seen as a bellwether as it has never been wrong.!
I can understand why someone might see states like Florida, Missouri and Ohio representing microcosms of the voting population, but not so much New Mexico or Delaware.
It's never good to focus resources on a state and lose, and/or just nip your closest competitor who took a pass, but that's what happened to Perry.
I suppose his contraversial remarks on social security, which were long on hype and short on real contraversy, might have hurt him in Fl, but I think he's just proving to be a flash in the pan. As soon as I announce he's finished, though, he'll probably come roaring back.