The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

Thanks, good analysis.

Perhaps there is a Texas perspective involved in the immigration debate. As I recall Bush proposed an amnesty for immigrants.

The fact that our southern border is largely unpoliced and uncontrolled is hardly the fault of would be Central American Immigrants seeking a better life. The fact that we readily hire illegals, indeed depend on them for major sectors of regional economies, while paying extended unemployment benefits to others who scorn the same work suggests that we need them. The additional facts that many cities create sanctuaries for them and the Federal government refuses to allow even elementary actions by state and local pollice to enforce its own laws regarding their presence also suggest that political factions here are playing self serving games with our national inconsistency on the issue. Frankly I think Perry's defense to his policy with respect to tuition was valid. The children are there and they are Texans.

I will admit, I do find you difficult to comprehend at times.

Have you tried reading it 'out loud' in your head?

Perhaps you should consider some similar remedies.

It was perfectly clear to me, Finn. I think that your problem is one that a lot of conservative nut cases have - cognitive dissonance.

Oh, please. I would have expected that sort of response from Oralboy.

2657 delegates in the FL thing:
Cain: 37.1%
Perry: 15.4%
Romney: 14.0%
.
.
Bachmann: 1.5%
Go figure, thinks I, balling up my notes.

Hells bells--that's 40 for the chainsaw.

Ha!

And Cain reclaims the "none of the above" mantle.

Wow, that's a big surprise. I figured Cain would do well, but more likely 4th and certainly no better than 3rd.

Not only did he win, he whupped them with a cat-o-9 9 9-tails

Good for Herman, and it's good for the race: keep the candidates focused on the issue of fixing the economy.

Looks like he picked up most of the votes Perry lost as a result of his poor debate performance.

I don't buy that the FL Straw poll is an uncanny predictor of the party nominee, but I bet Hermans savoring the though tonight.

Hey, here's a great future candidate for a Repub prez.

I am stupefied, once again. It's a good thing I don't care which of them wins.

I think it tells us more about the nature of straw polls than it does about predicting who someone will vote for in the primary.

Hehehehehehe . . .

September 24, 2011
Cain wins Florida test vote, Perry trails far behind
By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers

ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida Republicans threatened to shake up the Republican presidential race Saturday, giving business executive Herman Cain a solid win in a straw poll and delivering a sharp rebuke to front-runner Rick Perry.

Cain took 37.1 percent of the straw poll votes, cast by 2,657 Republicans at a state party gathering in Orlando. Perry, the Texas governor who had vowed to compete for the symbolic victory in a critical state, trailed far behind with 15.4 percent.

"We still have work to do," Perry spokesman Mark Miner said after the vote. "We'll be campaigning six days a week."

He congratulated Cain, then noted that at least Perry outpolled former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, widely seen until now as Perry's chief rival for the nomination. Romney finished third, with 14 percent.

"It's a devastating loss for Romney," Miner said. "He finished third after being in this race for five and half years. We've just been in the race for five and a half weeks."

Still, many of the Republicans attending the event said they turned away from Perry after watching him turn in a weak performance at a debate here on Thursday.

Pat Palaio, a caregiver from Perry, Fla., said she switched from Perry after watching the debate on Thursday.

"I was leaning toward Perry," she said. "He didn't come across well in the debate. We need someone who can win the debate going forward. He has to compete against Barack Obama."

Instead, she voted Saturday for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, calling him sure footed and solidly conservative.

The rest of the results:

Santorum, 10.9 percent;

Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, 10.4 percent;

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 8.4 percent;

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 2.3 percent;

Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, 1.5 percent.

The last place finish was a stinging result for Bachmann, whose first-place win in an Iowa straw poll six weeks ago helped thrust her into the top tier of candidates.

The Iowa straw poll was about machinery; Florida was more about the message and messengers.

The Iowa poll tested the ability of campaigns to get supporters to Ames, Iowa, for a Saturday afternoon and allowed candidates to greatly influence the results by spending freely to rent space at the event for tents, bands and food.

In the Florida competition, candidates did not have to rent space and were not allowed to buy tickets for blocks of their own supporters. They were free to woo delegates off site _Perry sponsored a breakfast Saturday at a hotel across the street.

But mostly, with delegates in town for three days to watch a debate and hear from the candidates in speeches, the Florida event served as a giant focus group with Republican activists weighing what the candidates were saying and how well they said it.

Cain was one of three candidates who stayed to speak to the attendees one more time Saturday afternoon, along with Santorum and Gingrich.

Andrea Floyd, a teacher from Miami-Dade County, said she hadn't even heard of Cain before arriving in Orlando for the three days of speeches and debates. By Saturday, she was sold.

"He is such an inspiring man," she said.

"Florida is important," said Gov. Rick Scott. "The road to the White House goes right through Florida. It pays to be here."

The Florida straw poll in the past predicted the winners of the Republican nomination. Ronald Reagan won in it 1979, George H.W. Bush won it in 1987, and Bob Dole won it in 1995. It has not been held in the last several elections.

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/24/125153/cain-wins-florida-test-vote-perry.html#ixzz1YysOS9dN

September 22, 2011
Huntsman jumps to third place in New Hampshire, poll says
By Michael Muskal | McClatchy-Tribune News Service

LOS ANGELES — Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah who has campaigned extensively in New Hampshire, has surged into third place among Republicans in the Granite State, according to the Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll of likely voters that also shows Mitt Romney with a commanding lead.

As the former governor of next-door Massachusetts, Romney has opened up a 27-point lead over his nearest rival, according to the poll released on Thursday. Romney also has a home in New Hampshire, which will have the nation's first presidential primary.

While Romney at 41 percent is expected to score big in New Hampshire, the order of the remaining GOP aspirants is far out of tune with national polls. For example, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who leads Romney in most national polls, scored just 8 percent, well back in the pack.

Romney's closest opposition in New Hampshire is Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian iconoclast, at 14 percent who has been creeping up in the national polls. Paul is followed by Huntsman at 10 percent. Huntsman has been badly trailing, down in single digits in most national polls.

Though a conservative, Huntsman faces problems in the Iowa caucus, expected to be dominated by Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. So New Hampshire, where he has been concentrating his campaigning, is key to his future political hopes.

"Mitt Romney is saying 'get out of my back yard' and making New Hampshire his strong firewall despite showing some weakness in the other states' early primaries," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center. "The anti-Romney candidate at this point could be either Ron Paul, who has polled consistently over the past year, or Jon Huntsman, whose numbers are really growing in the Granite State."

The statewide survey of 400 likely primary voters was conducted by telephone Sept. 18-20. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Michael Muskal writes for the Los Angeles Times.

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/22/124952/huntsman-jumps-to-third-place.html#ixzz1YythhLfF

While I tend to agree, any chink in Perry's armor is a happy event in my view.

Nothing doth more hurt in a state than
That cunning men pass for wise.

-- Francis Bacon

I do think it's a pretty solid indictment of Perry, and secondarily a pretty solid "eh" re: Romney. (Perry tried hard to win there, Romney skipped it.) In Florida, anyway. But Florida is supposed to be big in deciding the nominee.